Rip Current in Puerto Rico, January 28, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
152 PM AST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to localized heavy rainfall activity is expected to
affect the sections of north and east of Puerto Rico in the
afternoon hours. The rainfall accumulation of these showers will
depend directly of the steering wind flow across the region and
can result in localized urban and small stream flooding. The
weather will gradually improve by midweek.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...

Some fragments of moisture will continue to reach the local
region enhanced the showers development across the region in the
afternoon hours today. These showers are expected to focus on
northmen and eastern sections of Puerto Rico. For tomorrow, more
dry air coming to the region and will result in more stable
pattern in the morning hours. However, as moisture lingers over
the region and a weak south/southwesterly steering flow prevails,
diurnally induced afternoon showers are expected each day over the
interior and northeastern sections of Puerto Rico. By wednesday
late in the night, the steering winds turn more from the
southeast. Therefore,showers are forecast to stream over the
southern coastal areas of the island through the evening hours.
Also, this change in wind direction will result in normal to above
normal daytime temperatures across the coastal areas. In general,
cloudiness and localized showers activity are expected through
Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...Fri thru Wed... /issued 421 AM AST Tue Jan 28 2020/

On Friday, an old frontal boundary will approach the area from the
northwest. This will bring additional moisture into the region, then
help to sweep out the lingering moisture from the preceding system
as we move into the weekend. Increased instability will also be
associated with this system on Friday, though its extent will be
somewhat limited, with a strong ridge in the mid-levels extending
across the Caribbean. A ridge will push into the central Atlantic
off the coast of the US Mid-Atlantic. Under the influence of the
boundary, as well as the ridge to the northeast, winds will
generally have a significant northerly component on Friday, while
the surface ridge moving to north of the area will promote
easterly winds for Saturday. Gradual drying is anticipated
Saturday, with some moisture lingering in the low-levels through
the weekend. Sufficient moisture will remain in the area to
promote the development of passing showers during the overnight
and morning hours, as well as some afternoon showers due to local
effects and diurnal heating.

On Sunday, we once again come under the influence of a frontal
boundary, this time associated with a Northeasterly well to our
north. With the trough forcing the retreat of the central Atlantic
surface high, wind direction becomes less uniform across the
area, and winds will likely be somewhat variable as we enter the
workweek. As the system presses into the area on Monday into
Tuesday, increasing moisture is expected, as well as some
instability. Again, the strong mid-level ridge will likely inhibit
the increase in instability aloft. With these conditions,
increased shower activity and rainfall amounts are anticipated. A
surface ridge will build into the central Atlantic, and will help
bring a return of easterly winds on Tuesday. Moisture will remain
over the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with the boundary stretched
essentially zonally south of the ridge. The low is expected to be
squeezed between two relatively strong ridges, slowing progression
eastward, allowing the pattern to stagnate somewhat into midweek.
Generally, the expectation is for a few consecutive days of
widespread shower activity early next week, much like we saw at
the end of last week. That being said, it would not take a
significant change in the forecast with any of the three
interacting airmasses early next week to cause a substantial
alteration in the forecast here, and changes are likely between
now and then. Currently, the most likely alternative is towards
less rain, either from less moisture associated with the frontal
boundary entering our region or from less time spent stretched
across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected over TJBQ/TJMZ with partly cloudy skies.
Cloudiness will increase over the interior/E/S/N of PR and the U.S.
Virgin Islands through the afternoon. Shower activity will
concentrate mainly over the vicinity of St Croix, and the interior,
north and east Puerto Rico btwn 28/18-23z, moving more to the east
northeast after 29/00z. TEMPO groups were included for TJSJ/NCM/ISX
for SHRA and BKN ceilings. Light south winds will continue with
localized sea breeze variations and some gusty winds near showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Across the regional waters, seas at 5 feet or less are expected to
continue for the next few days with winds up to 15 knots or less.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at north-facing beaches,
with generally low risk elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  85 /  30  60  50  50
STT  73  84  72  83 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

AVIATION...CAM
SHORT TERM....LIS
PUBLIC DESK...TW

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
346 AM AST martes 28 de enero de 2020

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-290930-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe-
346 AM AST martes 28 de enero de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos. Especialmente sobre el norte-central y este
de la isla.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para las playas desde el noroeste a noreste de Puerto Rico y
Culebra.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Se espera que un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continue para
la costa del Atlantico hasta el viernes. Aguaceros de moderados a
fuertes sobre terreno saturado pudieran resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos, sobre sectores del interior y noreste de
Puerto Rico el miercoles y jueves en la tarde.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
o corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-290930-
San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
346 AM AST martes 28 de enero de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundaciones...Lluvias de moderadas a fuertes pudieran resultar en
inundaciones urbanas a traves de las Islas Virgenes Americanas.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para las playas del este de St. Croix y norte de St Thomas.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Se espera que un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continue para
la costa norte de St. Thomas hasta el viernes. Aguaceros de
moderados a fuertes sobre las Islas Virgenes Americanas pudieran
resultar en inundaciones urbanas el miercoles.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
o corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.