A cold front brought high winds to several locations in southwest and south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A cold front brought high winds to several locations in southwest and south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 4:59 PM PST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
459 PM PST Fri Jan 3 2020
.Updated marine discussion.
.SHORT TERM...Satellite shows a strong cold front approaching our
shoreline this afternoon. This front will bring a combination of
strong winds and snow to the forecast area later tonight. Snow
levels will start out around 5000 feet tonight before dropping
sharply down to roughly 3000 feet behind the front. The majority
of snow will fall ahead of the front around the 5000 foot level,
so the majority of the impacts will be felt along the Cascade
passes and the foothills of the Cascades. We will see some snow
fall down to 3000 feet later in the night. Therefore, Mt Shasta
City and some of the California sections of I-5 could see a little
bit of snow around sunrise. Snow fall amounts will be roughly 5
to 8 inches in the Cascades with roughly 2 to 4 inches on the
foothills ,Siskiyou and Marble Mountains. Overall, this snow will
be great for outdoor recreation enthusiasts on Saturday.
The other topic here is the wind with this cold front. We're
expecting strong winds in the Shasta Valley, areas east of the
Cascades and in the southern sections of the Rogue Valley later
tonight. Winds will likely be strongest near Summer Lake and
highway 31. Otherwise, the Shasta valley will probably be strong
wind gusts as the south winds flow through the valley. The
evidence for strong winds in the Shasta Valley is a little weaker
today than yesterday, but we decided to let the forecast ride as
is. The winds still don't line up the Rogue Valley as upper level
winds are out of the southwest. Therefore, we are thinking areas
near Ashland and the upper foothills and ridges will be quite
breezy later tonight.
Saturday will likely be pretty quiet with just some lingering rain
and snow showers. High pressure will build briefly and provide
brief calm before the next system on Sunday. The system on Sunday
will bring snow levels down to 2000 feet Saturday night before
they rise to 3000 feet during the day Sunday. Most of the
precipitation will likely fall in the early morning hours of
Sunday and perhaps produce some travel issues for the lower
passes. Snow accumulation at this time is expected to be around 1
to 2 inches over the lower I-5 passes. This system will produce
less snow than the one on Saturday yet snow levels will be lower.
Overall, we're not expecting widespread impacts Sunday morning,
but there could be issues on the lower I-5 passes with
inexperienced winter drivers.
A slight chance for rain and snow will continue Monday with snow
levels around 3000 feet. Snow accumulations will be small and
inconsequential Sunday night into Monday. For more information on
the active weather into next week read the discussion below.
-Smith
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)...The operational models
still remain at odds with the timing of the front with the ECMWF
showing a earlier arrival time (Tuesday morning). The GFS is slower
with precipitation reaching the coast early Tuesday evening. However
several the individual GFS ensemble members show precipitation
reaching the coast during the day Tuesday. As expected, all of the
individual ECMWF ensemble members show measurable precipitation.
Therefore the forecast will lean towards the faster and wetter ECMWF
solution. Most of the precipitation Tuesday through Tuesday will be
focused along the coast, coastal mountains and Cascades. Snow levels
are expected to be between 3500 and 4000 feet Tuesday afternoon,
lowering to 2500-3000 feet Tuesday night. That would put the higher
passes at risk for road snow. However the risk at the lower passes
(between Grants pass and Canyonville) are not expected to be an
issue at this time.
Moist northwest flow aloft will continue with additional
disturbances moving through Wednesday through Wednesday night which
typically results in unsettled weather. The operational models have
not been consistent with the specifics on the timing and
precipitation amounts, thus confidence on precipitation amounts are
low.
There could be a brief break in the action Thursday as weak ridging
builds in, but it won't last long. Another upper trough originating
from the Gulf of Alaska will drop into our area by the end of the
week. This system may end up being the strongest one of the forecast
period with moderate to heavy precipitation along the coast, Coast
Range and Cascades. Also these colder systems will likely bring a
good shot of snow to the higher mountains passes Friday afternoon
into Friday night. In addition we could be dealing with gusty winds
at the coast, Shasta Valley and the higher terrain along and east of
the Cascades.
Looking beyond the end of next week through the second full week in
January (11th-18th), the data has been consistent the past few days
showing below normal 500 mb height anomalies (troughing) over the
western U.S. with above normal 500 mb anomalies (ridging) over the
Aleutian Islands and southeastern part of the U.S. In fact the
anomalies suggested by the ECMWF and GFS ensemble are pretty
significant (strong) this far out in the forecast period. Typically
anomalies this far out get "washed" out some resulting in weaker
signals. Without going into more details, there are other parameters
in the ensemble members that also point in the same direction.
So the bottom line is we could be heading into a colder than normal
temperature pattern during this time period. Also, any systems that
move into the area will originate from the Gulf of Alaska which
typically means cold and wet. Of course it's way too early to go
into specifics this far out. However if the combination of wet
systems and colder than normal temperatures pan out we could be
dealing with a chance of snow in the lower elevations. By no means
this is a slam dunk, but it's something we wanted everyone to be
aware of. As always, this is something we'll continue to monitor and
keep everyone up to date on the latest developments.
-Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...For the 03/18Z TAF Cycle...LIFR conditions prevailing
int he valleys west of the Cascades today slower to erode than
earlier thought. Expect clearing to VFR by mid afternoon. Incoming
cold front with increasing southerly winds will produce widespread
low level wind shear, mainly in the late afternoon and evening just
ahead of the front. Winds will also be quite gusty, especially at
KOTH and KLMT as well as for the Shasta Valley, more so than at KMFR
and KRBG. Besides the strong winds, conditions will deteriorate late
evening into early Saturday morning with light to moderate
precipitation, mountain obscuration, and a mix of mainly MVFR and
IFR. -DW/MTS
&&
.MARINE...Updated 430 PM PST Friday 3 January 2020...South winds
will continue to increase this afternoon day as the cold front
approaches the waters. Gales and hazardous seas conditions are
expected to ramp up this afternoon. The front will produce moderate
to heavy rain while a mix of wind wave and west swell at 13 to 14
seconds produces high and very steep seas of 14 to 18 ft. Winds will
gradually decrease tonight from northwest to southeast portions of
the coastal waters. The Brookings area will see the stronger winds
last.
Seas remain high but will subside some Saturday after this front
departs. The next cold front early Sunday will not be as strong but
will bring a new peak of high and steep seas Sunday evening at
around 12 to 15 ft at 13 seconds.
A warm front will brush past to the north Monday followed by the
next cold front on Tuesday with likely advisory strength south to
southwest winds likely. Between the Sunday and Tuesday fronts, seas
may dip below Small Craft Advisory heights (below 10 feet).
Model timing through Tuesday's front is quite consistent, so
confidence in forecast conditions is moderate to high through that
time. -DW/Petrucelli/Keene
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday
for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PST
Saturday for ORZ030.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday for
ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PST
Saturday above 2500 feet in the for ORZ025.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for ORZ026.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PST
Saturday for ORZ027-028.
CA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday for
CAZ085.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM PST Saturday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight
to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning
until midnight PST tonight for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous
Seas Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM PST Saturday for
PZZ370.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The ODOT sensor on Highway 101 at Humbug Mountain recorded a gust to 58 mph at 03/2046 PST, a gust to 61 mph at 03/2116 PST, and a gust to 58 mph at 03/2131 PST.
The Rock Creek RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 04/0227 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 863640, 863641.