Below average rainfall experienced in March and April, continued into May when an additional 1-3 inch deficit occurred. Rainfall the occurred in May was generally less than an inch and only 10 to 25 percent of normal for much of the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
Below average rainfall experienced in March and April, continued into May when an additional 1-3 inch deficit occurred. Rainfall the occurred in May was generally less than an inch and only 10 to 25 percent of normal for much of the area. By the end of the month rainfall deficits were running 2 to 4 inches below normal across the region. This below-average precipitation led to expansion of the severe drought southeast and south across the Oklahoma Panhandle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:22 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1222 AM CDT Fri May 1 2020 .AVIATION... For the 06z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at the terminals, but there is a small chance for thunderstorms during as we reach peak heating later this afternoon. At this point, chances are the terminals will not be impacted, but cannot rule it out either. That said, confidence was higher to leave this mention out for now. Otherwise, there is a low level jet overhead around 1000-1500 feet AGL, and this will cause some concern for low level wind shear through the beginning of this TAF period as speeds reach 45-55 knots from the southwest. Lastly, high clouds will likely be present through a good portions of this cycle with some breaks at times. Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for the 00Z TAF period. Winds will generally range from westerly to southwesterly at 10-15 kts throughout the TAF period. Cigs will remain high and well within VFR range. Some WS at 2 kft possible between 08-10Z Friday, especially at KGUY; otherwise, tranquil weather conditions are expected throughout TAF period. Meccariello PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night... Upper level analysis reveals fairly "dirty" ridge with axis of Pacific moisture being pulled up over the ridge. The ridge axis is now over the Rocky Mountains but is dampening as progressive upstream trough is impinging from northwest / north central coast. Northwest flow aloft today will see increasing westerly component going into Friday as ridge axis traverses the plains, along with an uptick in Pacific moisture as noted in 700mb theta-E fields and increased RH values from 500mb to 250mb. This evolution will have some affect both on potential record temperatures Friday and the addition of some thunderstorms chances Friday as well. For today, temperatures have increased into the mid to upper 80s as of 19z. Surface analysis revealed lee trough with pressure falls maximized across the Raton Mesa vicinity. Southwest winds were coming in a few knots above MOS guidance in areas adjacent to the lee trough, with 17 to 22 knot sustained winds being common across all but the far northwest Panhandles. A 40 to 50 knot low level jet will get going overnight and corresponds to an increase in the 850mb Theta-E. Surface dew points are expected to increase into the lower 40s by sunrise Friday. The latest guidance continue to show minor shortwave perturbation at 500mb (and even some hint at 250mb) as disturbance rounds the top of the ridge Friday afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a surface trough / weak frontal boundary moves across the northern Panhandles towards the Canadian River Valley switching winds to the north on north side of boundary while southerly winds remain on the south side. The latest model soundings suggest impressive mixing across the area with dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface up to or above 500mb in the afternoon. This will result in the mixing down of ~31 degree C 850mb temperatures along thermal ridge extending south of the surface trough. Temperatures along and south of the Canadian River Valley will likely rise into the mid to upper 90s by peak heating, while areas north of the boundary will probably only get into the low 90s. At this time, Amarillo looks to tie its previous record high of 95 degrees (similar for other climate sites). The Palo Duro Canyon floor will likely be our warm spot, with a temperature of 101 being forecasted. Temperatures will strongly depend on how far south the boundary pushes by Friday afternoon, and also extent of mid and upper level cloud cover. As for thunderstorms, there has been an increasing signal for thunder as forcing increases along the surface trough / frontal boundary Friday afternoon. The 500mb perturbation may also help provide some forcing with even more notable troughing at 700mb across western FA through Friday evening. Inverted-V profiles are expected across the area as convective temperatures are achieved with DCAPE values exceeding 1800 J/kg for a large part of the FA by late afternoon. This suggest very dry BL conditions as strong mixing occurs, but mid and upper level moisture and instability are sufficient for thunderstorms capable of dry microbursts. SBCAPE values were most impressive in the central and eastern Panhandles where 500 to 1000 J/kg were being depicted in the NAM/NAMNest/RAP. CAMs were fairly agressive with storm formation across the area, with CONSHORT PoPs coming in at 30 to 50 across most of the Panhandles. This seems a little overdone as actual precip from storms will be limited due to rapid evaporation. The strongest storms may produce very light precip, with most being more virga type activity. This does warrant some slight chance PoPs mainly for areas along the boundary and just north of the boundary. The strongest storms could produce some strong wind gusts which favors more central and eastern zones where the best CAPE exist. These storms will be diurnally driven and mostly single cell to perhaps multicell given effective shear around 30 knots. Ward FIRE WEATHER...Friday... The antecedent conditions will be very dry and hot Friday as strong mixing occurs. This will result in RH values dropping into the mid to low teens in the west to upper teens in the east with 90s area wide. Winds are not expected to be very strong as a frontal boundary pushes into the area. This boundary is expected to stall near the Canadian River Valley. North winds at 10 to 15 knots can be expected on north side of boundary, with south or southwest winds south of the boundary. The biggest concern for Friday will be for some isolated thunderstorm development along and north of the boundary. These storms will not produce a lot of precipitation due to very dry conditions near the surface. Thus, there is an increased risk for lightning produced fires. Any fire that occurs near a thunderstorm could then be driven by strong outflow winds, as dry microbursts will be possible with the strongest storms. Ward LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday... Models are in good agreement that a weak frontal boundary will bisect the area much of the day from NW to SE on Saturday. Because we live in the Panhandle, fronts bring moisture and the boundary will separate higher moisture and slightly cooler air to the NE from much drier and hotter air to the SW. Initially H7 theta-e/moisture will have deceased in the wake of the Friday weak S/WV and feel this together with a formidable cap will help prohibit TSTM development along/behind the boundary Sat aftn. Did note the NAMnest is much more aggressive in weakening the cap and this will have to be watched in the upcoming days. A S/WV is forecast to cross the area Saturday night. Just slightly capped elevated instability is forecast to increase across the far north where better H5 cooling occurs. Not sure H7 moisture quite increases enough to spark storms, but believe it is worth 10-20 POPs across the far north Sat night. With MU CAPE near 2500 j/kg, across the north and decent deep layer shear, any storms in the area would have potential to become severe, but we have to break through and develop a storm first. We are refraining from including any light rain or drizzle early Sun behind the front for now despite saturated near SFC to H8 layer below the cap as the only forcing will be some modest low level upslope flow and CAA while isentropic surfaces indicate more neutral or even downgliding in the low levels. Will be a little cooler Sun, but appears the weak front will not cool temps all the way to normal values as highs stay in the 80s. More lingering cloud cover could of course be an issue for those forecast highs. SW flow returns quickly Monday as do the warmer temps in the 90s. Additional riples in zonal flow appear to favor Cen Plains areas just north through the week for convection, but they do help push a front through by Tuesday which will help cool temps closer to normal values. That said, GFS is much stronger with the system responsible for the late Mon/Tue fropa than the ECM or GEM and confidence is not high in how much push or how strong this front will be. For now, despite the differences, models do agree on the front in general for late Mon into Tues and hard to argue with the NBM cooling down temps to near normal in it's wake for remainder of the period. There are significant differences in med range models regarding the strength and positions of ridging to the west and troughing in the ern US by Thu which only decreases confidence further by the end of next week. Gittinger && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011100- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop will likely remain very isolated, but they will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. Lightning induced fires will be another concern given dry grass fuels. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night mainly across the Oklahoma Panhandle. While chances are low, any storms that develop will have potential to become severe with large hail being the main threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The area of severe drought which had included all but the far south and southeast parts of the county at the beginning of the month, spread south and east to include all of the county by the fourth week of the month, and continued through the end of the month.
The area of severe drought which had been confined to the far northwest part of the county at the beginning of the month, spread south and east to include the northwest one-third of the county by the fourth week of the month, and continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 884401, 884402.