Drought in Guam, May 1 to 31, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
654 PM ChST Thu Apr 30 2020

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with patchy showers prevail across the Marianas
this evening. Fresh to strong trade winds are seen across the region.
Latest buoy observations show seas between 5 and 8 feet, with
occasional seas near 9 feet at Ipan.

&&

.Discussion...
A weak disturbance to the east of the Marianas is producing a band
of cloudiness with patchy showers that are approaching the islands
this afternoon. Based on current movement, expect mostly cloudy
skies and a slight increase in showers over the islands around
midnight, continuing through Friday afternoon. The dry trade-wind
pattern will then return to the region Friday evening and continue
into next week.

&&

.Marine...
Latest ASCAT analysis shows a band of enhanced winds moving through
the waters today, with another band just to the east of the coastal
waters. Based on ASCAT and current observed wind speed, extended the
Small Craft Advisory through early Friday morning. Seas have
increased slightly, as expected, over the past several hours,
resulting in surf of around 10 feet on east facing reefs. This will
maintain a high risk of rip currents for the next several days. Seas
are expected to slowly subside over the next couple of days, falling
to between 5 and 7 feet Saturday. Surf is expected to fall
sufficiently to allow the rip current rip to become moderate Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.Fire weather...
Dry and windy conditions will continue over the next few days.
Spotty showers late tonight and Friday could bring needed rain to
isolated locations, however, the overall rainfall will remain fairly
light and will not ease the fire danger. A Red Flag Warning was
issued this morning and is expected to expire this evening as winds
subside over night. The Fire Weather Watch will continue Friday
afternoon. With fresh to occasional strong trade winds expected
again Friday, another Red Flag Warning is likely.

&&

.Tropical systems...
The invest area near Palau continues to drift west-northwestward and
remains fairly disorganized. The circulation is currently centered
near 5N132E and will continue west-northwestward, moving across 130E
over night.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Fresh to strong trades remain in place across the Marshalls with
mainly fresh trades at Kosrae and Pohnpei. Convergent trade flow is
generating batches of showers and a few thunderstorms from Pohnpei
state eastward to the Marshalls.

Low-level convergence will stay south of Majuro the next few days
but there should still be enough moisture and instability for the
chance of thunderstorms. Last few images of visible satellite show a
trade-wind disturbance upstream of Pohnpei. This feature should move
across Pohnpei late tonight, bringing a round of scattered showers
through Friday. A brief break is possible Saturday before another
impulse arrives. This second feature will also boost showers across
Kosrae this weekend. Showery weather may return to the Marshalls
early next week as model guidance lifts the convergent zone
northward in unison with a trade-wind trough.

Marine conditions are expected to remain hazardous to small craft at
Majuro the next few days with mainly northeast flow. A broad area of
strong trades upstream will maintain elevated surf and seas from the
ENE. Hazardous surf is now confined to east facing reefs of Kosrae
since the swell has shifted to a more ENE direction than NE. Minor
inundation is no longer expected on Kosrae since the astronomical
tide cycle has waned.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A weak, disorganized circulation is centered southwest of Palau near
5N132E. Batches of deep convection across Palau and Yap proper with
showery weather extending eastward to Chuuk state.

The broad and weak circulation will edge west-northwestward the next
several days with little development expected. Episodes of scattered
showers are likely at Palau and Yap through Friday night before low-
level flow weakens, and so does low-level convergence. Shower
coverage increases at Chuuk Friday night as the trade-wind
disturbance currently east of Pohnpei nears. Guidance suggests a
disturbance may try to develop across far western Chuuk state or
eastern Yap state the back half of this weekend. Convergent flow east
of this feature may prolong showery weather at Chuuk the back half
of this weekend and early next week. This disturbance will trek
westward next week, bringing the possibility of unsettled weather
back to Yap and Palau. Given the large-scale pattern it would not be
surprising to see next week's feature share similarities to the
current disturbance across Yap/Palau.

Elevated seas are expected at Chuuk through the forecast period due
to strong upstream trade winds. Slightly lower seas are expected for
far western Micronesia. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds along
the south side of the Palau circulation will generate choppy seas
and surf along south and west facing reefs of Palau through the
weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001>004.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CHST this evening for GUZ001.

     Fire Weather Watch through Friday afternoon for GUZ001.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CHST Friday for
	 PMZ151>154.

&&

Kleeschulte/Bukunt