Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 13, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

There is a chance for showers/thunderstorms overnight, especially
over northwest and north-central Oklahoma as storms exit the high
plains and move towards our area. Given diminishing lapse rates
and a cap in place, any thunderstorms that enter NW OK are
expected to be weak.

A weak surface low over New Mexico reaches the TX panhandle
tomorrow and low-level SW flow will bring a hotter/drier airmass
into W/SW portions of our CWA. Temperatures of 105 to 110 deg F,
low RH values near 15-20 percent, and S/SW winds gusting to 25-30
mph will contribute to near elevated fire weather conditions over
portions of SW OK and W/N TX on Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory
has been issued for W/N TX and a few SW OK counties for tomorrow
until 7PM.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The persistent upper high bringing the current heat wave over the
southern plains will remain the dominant weather feature for the
upcoming week. There will be modulations, mostly in the form of a
couple of weak short-wave troughs moving eastward through the
westerlies across Colorado and Kansas. One late Tuesday/early
Wednesday and the other late Wednesday/early Thursday will affect
mainly western and northern Oklahoma. Each of these will push a
surface boundary close to or into northwestern Oklahoma which will
enhance thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, model trends suggest the
upper ridge slowly building to the north, taking rain chances out
of Oklahoma from late in the week. A heat advisory may be needed
for Tuesday over part of Choctaw Nation and Chickasaw Nation. The
only other same-day hazard will probably be the need for an RFD in
southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again overnight at KWWR
as storms are moving into northwest Oklahoma from southwest
Kansas. We will watch to see how far southeast these storms will
move, but right now have the probabilities of these storms
affecting KCSM, KOKC/KOUN or KPNC less than needed for a TEMPO
group. Apart from thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  78 100  78 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK        103  79 107  78 /   0  10   0  20
Wichita Falls TX 104  80 106  79 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          100  74 104  71 /  20  20  10  30
Ponca City OK     91  75 100  75 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         97  78 100  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ033-036.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
931 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-140245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
931 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms over western Kansas and southeastern Colorado Sunday
evening will move northwest and approach northwest Oklahoma after
midnight Monday morning. A few strong storms will be possible and
there is a marginal risk of severe weather in northwest Oklahoma
northwest of a line from Alva to Taloga to Elk City. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing strong winds and
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms may be continuing across northern Oklahoma after
sunrise Monday morning and a few strong storms are possible, but
the potential for severe weather will be low. Thunderstorms are
also possible Monday evening in far northwest Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
mainly across western or northern Oklahoma.

.Heat...
Very hot and humid conditions will exist through the upcoming
week.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions will occur Monday and Tuesday
over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
957 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW BRIDGE CREEK       35.26N 97.76W
07/11/2020                   GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A GREENHOUSE.

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SULPHUR                 34.51N 96.98W
07/12/2020                   MURRAY             OK   PUBLIC

            8 INCH TREE LIMBS SNAPPED. RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

&&

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
115 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

OKZ004-005-010-130645-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-
115 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Woodward...Harper
and northwestern Woods Counties Until 145 AM CDT...

AT 114 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Rosston, moving east at 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3700 9926 3679 9927 3660 9931 3670 9999
      3680 10001 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 291DEG 51KT 3685 9983

WR