Flooding in North Carolina, November 12 to 13, 2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1003 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases from the south through this morning...out
ahead of a cold front that is expected to cross the area later
today and tonight. The front becomes stalled along the
southeast coast late Thursday night, before pushing offshore
Friday. Another cold front crosses the area late Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EST Thursday...

Morning wx analysis continues to show a plume of deep
tropical/Atlantic moisture streaming north toward the region.
CIRA TPW product nicely depicts plume of moisture streaming
north across the coastal plain in between a deep upper trough
across the Plains, and a strong ridge a few hundred miles off
the SE CONUS coast. PWs on the order of 2 to 2.3" noted across
the region (+3 to +4 Std Dev for mid Nov). At the Sfc, a cold
front extends from northern New England SSW to just east of the
Appalachians.

A second round of moderate to heavy rainfall (with embedded
tstms) will continue through this morning, as additional
shortwave energy arrives, as upper trough shifts east toward
the Great Lakes today. Meanwhile, favorable upper jet dynamics
will funnel another slug of copious moisture across the area
over the next several hours, with HRRR/ARW continuing to favor
an additional 2-3" of rainfall (locally higher totals) falling
over the coastal Carolinas up into Hampton Roads. Given how
well the above blend is performing over the past 12-24 hours,
will stick close with this total, which is also a major part of
the WPC forecast. WPC has Moderate Risk over our inland NC
counties, or roughly along the Chowan River, flanked by a Slight
Risk over the remainder of the area.

The aforementioned cold front continues to slowly advance
southeast toward the area this morning. Still appears as if the
front crosses into our area later this morning into the aftn,
but it slows down substantially as the parent low accelerates
well off to the north. Steady moderate to briefly heavy rainfall
will taper off to sct showers and patchy drizzle from NW to SE
over the RIC metro area and the VA piedmont, as cooler/drier air
advects into the area from midday into tonight. Temps slowly
fall off into the 50s and lower 60s this aftn over the northern
half of the area, but will linger in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the SE in the warm sector.

Given ongoing rain, will maintain Flash Flood Watch for now,
which remains in effect for all areas (the Ern Shore has been
added) through today. The flood threat will gradually diminish
across the north later this morning, but will continue over
Hampton Roads into this aftn with periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall.

Heavy rain threat slowly diminishes during the aftn/evening over
Hampton Roads, as the cold front slowly advances toward the
coast, but becomes hung up along the Atlantic coast tonight.
This will result in some lingering sct showers tonight and into
Friday morning. Meanwhile, on the cool side of the front,
patchy drizzle and fog are likely overnight for much of the
area with plenty of low-level moisture and CAA ongoing.

For temps, highs likely to be realized around sunrise for the
northern half of the area (low 70s), with temps falling this
aftn. Farther south, highs in the low to mid 70s expected across
the SE. Early morning lows in the 40s to around 50 inland, low
to mid 50s along the coast...and upper 50s to around 60 SE
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EST Thursday...

No significant changes to forecast rationale for the short term
period. The remnant low of TC Eta is progged to track just SE
of the Carolina coast on Friday, as surface high pressure
slowly builds in from the west. Lingering light rain Friday
morning will give way to dry/clearing conditions by the end of
the day. likely to see some lingering showers to begin the day
across the far SE, with gradual/slow clearing through early
Friday evening. Forecast highs Fri are in the mid 60s- around
70F. Much cooler Fri night and Sat as the high becomes centered
over the area. Lows Fri night in the upper 30s NW/40s elsewhere.
Highs Sat generally in the upper 50s-low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EST Wednesday...

Still looking at a relatively benign extended forecast period with
more seasonable temperatures/conditions. The forecast continues to
trend drier Saturday into Sunday morning with TC Eta moving well off
the SE coast and surface high pressure building across the local
area. By Sunday, a moisture starved cold front approaches from the
NW and crosses the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. As
mentioned, moisture appears to be fairly limited with this feature,
thus only have slight chance PoPs during the Sunday night timeframe.
Surface high pressure returns early next week leading to dry and
cool conditions for the first half of the work week. Sunday will be
the warmest day of the forecast period with highs in the mid to
upper 60s (lower 70s far S). Lows Sunday night will range from the
lower 40s NW to the lower 50s SE. Early next week, temperatures will
remain fairly close to normal, ranging from the lower 60s Monday to
the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows generally in the 30s (warmer
at the coast) Monday night through Wednesday night with the
potential for frost/freeze conditions (inland) each night, though
not unusual for mid November.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 AM EST Thursday...

Deteriorating flying conditions this morning w/low-end MVFR to
IFR conditions expected through much of the day. A slight chc
of tstms will continue this morning for all terminals this
morning for the SE terminals, but confidence is not high enough
to include this in the TAFs at this time. Will amend as needed
if it looks like there is an imminent tstm threat. A S-SW wind
of 8-12kt is expected this morning, and then shifting to N to NE
as the trailing cold front moves through late this morning into
the aftn. IFR cigs are expected to persist into this evening,
likely deteriorating to LIFR late.

Outlook: Degraded flight conditions are likely through Friday
morning as the frontal boundary responsible for the rain/clouds
will be slow to move through the region. Improving flying
conditions are expected for the second half of Friday into
Saturday. There is a chc of degraded flight conditions Sunday
night into Monday as another frontal boundary crosses the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Cold front is just off to our west early this morning. Southerly
winds 5-15 kts over the bay and 10-15 kts over the coastal waters.
Waves in the bay 2-3 ft and seas 4-5 ft. SCA continues for the
coastal waters for elevated seas.

The front crosses the bay and northern coastal waters this morning
and southern coastal waters this afternoon, stalling just off the
coast through Friday morning. Winds behind the front become N/NE 10-
15 kts and then E/NE overnight. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft
at the mouth of the bay. By late tonight seas subside to 3-4 ft over
the southern coastal waters but will remain 4-5 ft over the northern
coastal waters through early Friday morning.

The front pushes away from the coast beginning Friday afternoon and
high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds turn to the NW Friday
afternoon and modest CAA will likely result in SCA winds/seas over
the bay and coastal waters from late Friday through Saturday
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...

Flood Warnings have been issued for the Rivanna River near
Palmyra, the Appomattox near Farmville, the James at
Cartersville, the James at Richmond-Westham, the James at
Richmond Locks, and the Meherrin at Lawrenceville. Water levels
at these sites are expected to exceed minor or moderate flood
stage today into Thursday night.

Will need to watch the main stem rivers through the end of the
week with a widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain expected. Several
of our forecast points in the James, Appomattox, and Chowan
basins are forecast to exceed minor flood stage. Moderate
flooding is possible in a few locations. See FLSAKQ/FLWAKQ or
water.weather.gov for site specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-509>511.
     Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ075>090-
     092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...AJB
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
942 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525-
131445-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-York-
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
942 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-131445-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-
942 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, north
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MDZ021>025-VAZ075>083-087-088-512>522-131445-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
942 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W GREAT BRIDGE        36.71N 76.25W
11/12/2020                   CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MANY ROADS IMPASSIBLE OR CLOSED ACROSS THE
            CITY OF CHESAPEAKE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

BUTNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1059 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PRINCESS ANNE           36.76N 76.06W
11/12/2020                   CITY OF VIRGINIA BEVA   PUBLIC

            MANY PUBLIC REPORTS OF FLOODED OR IMPASSIBLE
            ROADWAYS VIA THE WAZE APP IN THE CITY OF
            VIRGINIA BEACH.

&&

BUTNER

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