What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 1:35 PM EST, 3 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 1:35 PM EST, 3 hours 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a more typical summertime pattern of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through early next week.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 233 PM: Deep convection underway across the mtns, but still
quiet east of the Blue Ridge. Environment is characterized by
2000-3500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE and dCAPE of at least 800 J/kg, so
there is some concern for a few pulse severe storms this afternoon
and evening as updrafts become more robust. No major changes at
this time, other than a few tweaks to the precip probs.
The weather situation remains persistent over the next 24 hours
with a SW flow aloft as an upper trof axis remains to our west. One
weak short wave will move slowly overhead this evening, while low
level flow remains light from the S to SE. This should keep some
convection going well into the overnight period, possibly all night
long near the Blue Ridge Escarpment where some weak mechanical lift
will persist. Thus, we hold onto some small precip chances. Min
temps will be near normal. Thursday should turn out similar to
today, with another favorable environment for deep convection
that initiates over the higher terrain by midday and expands from
there. Precip probs should be well above climo again. Sfc-based
CAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, sfc-delta Theta-e in excess of 30,
and low shear point to another afternoon with possible pulse severe
storms. High temps will be near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 pm EDT Wednesday: Thursday night into Friday, an
upper trough will continue to set up shop over the eastern CONUS
with the axis of it just west of the southern Appalachians.
With an associated frontal boundary expected to remain stalled
across the eastern fringe of the cwa, isolated showers and
thunderstorms should linger through the overnight and early
morning hours on Friday, mainly in the mountains and NC
Piedmont. With the help from the right entrance region of a 200
mb jet streak located over the central Appalachians on the
eastern side of the trough, some divergence and forcing aloft
will kick-off a round of convective development early Friday
afternoon, starting in the higher elevations. With the front
still expected to remain stalled near the far eastern zones and
diurnal instability in place, scattered convective coverage and
above climo pops will be likely, especially from the mountains
to the NC Piedmont. Most of the activity on Friday will be
diurnal, but the axis of the trough gradually moves over the
region late Friday into early Saturday before lifting out to the
north and east. This opens the door for a few showers and
storms to linger past sunset Friday. As for Saturday, the front
will sag southward and the overall flow pattern flattens out a
bit and begins to become more zonal. Drier air will filter in as
a W to NW flow overtakes the area. With higher heights building
in from the south, temperatures will be at or slightly above
climo for Saturday. Not to mention, convective development will
be somewhat suppressed compared to Friday, but moderate
instability from daytime heating and PWAT values >1.25" for most
locations should keep isolated to scattered diurnal convective
coverage in the forecast during the first half of the weekend.
Model guidance picks up on a wave or two of elongated shortwaves
to move across the cwa during the same time period and allows
pops on Saturday to stay a tad bit above climo due to the mid-
level energy and typical summertime nature.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Wednesday: Not a lot of change in the day-to-day
sensible weather Sunday through Wednesday as near climo summertime
conditions continue. High and low temperatures vary by a few degrees
each day, along with generally light winds, and at least some chance
for afternoon thunder each day.
Some weak embedded shortwaves in WNW upper flow will, at times, give
a little forcing that will elevate POPs to above climo levels. At
the same time, weak surface features do not give any strong fetch of
new moisture into the area. So CAPE will remain at 1000 to 2000
j/kg in the afternoons, along with low-levels of deep-shear, to give
limited chances for severe. Most likely severe weather will be
isolated microburst activity, typical of this time of year.
EC and GFS models agree on general weak dynamical pattern, with the
latest GFS model having a stronger shortwave entering the eastern
CONUS Monday night. However, most of the energy with this wave
crosses well north of the CWA, with only some difficult-to-nail-down
increase in POPs Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR through the evening hours outside
of scattered/numerous thunderstorms. All sites get a TEMPO for
thunderstorms with an MVFR restriction based on the latest model
guidance, mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours. Guidance
suggests the convection will carry on into the overnight, so
this will be re-evaluated and amended later on. Wind should be
light from the SE to S with scattered cu away from storms and
outflows. Low level moisture will remain rich overnight. Valley
fog looks like a near certainty, so KAVL was taken down to at least
LIFR in the pre-dawn hours. Other sites could also have an MVFR or
IFR restriction at that time, but confidence is lower. Expect more
of the same on Thursday, with light SW wind and more convection
from midday onward.
Outlook: Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible thru the rest of the work week. Morning restrictions will
also be possible, especially over the usual mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% Med 78% Med 79%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 85% High 88%
KAVL High 100% Med 75% Med 77% High 83%
KHKY High 100% High 90% Med 67% High 81%
KGMU High 100% High 100% Med 69% High 87%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 88% High 81%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...PMHazardous weather outlook, Aug 5, 3:49 AM EST, 13 hours 33 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-060900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
449 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the region this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may
produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.
One or two of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing damaging
wind gusts.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 4:13 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
SCZ014-052145-
Chester SC-
513 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles southwest of Chester, or 6 miles south of
Chester State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Chester State Park, Cornwell and Blackstock.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3457 8136 3460 8138 3473 8117 3460 8102
3456 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 237DEG 17KT 3459 8127
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 5, 4:24 PM EST, 58 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
524 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
NCZ053-065-507>509-052200-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
524 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM EDT...
At 523 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Columbus, or near Chimney Rock Village, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave
and Edneyville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3554 8218 3543 8206 3541 8215 3541 8217
3539 8220 3536 8232 3543 8237 3556 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 237DEG 17KT 3542 8225
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 5, 4:44 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
544 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
SCZ014-052215-
Chester SC-
544 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...
At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles south of Chester, or 4 miles southeast of
Chester State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Chester State Park, Richburg, Cornwell and Blackstock.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3456 8124 3463 8131 3479 8110 3464 8094
3456 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 237DEG 18KT 3462 8119
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 5, 4:58 PM EST, 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
NCZ505>508-510-SCZ007-052230-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Eastern Polk NC-Spartanburg SC-
558 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD...POLK AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...
At 557 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles southwest of Marion to 7 miles south of
Columbus, and moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Columbus, Landrum, Campobello, Lake Bowen, Tryon, Lake
Lure, Green Hill, Mill Spring and Thermal City.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
LAT...LON 3559 8190 3509 8200 3512 8222 3519 8222
3520 8224 3560 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 277DEG 9KT 3557 8208 3514 8220
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 5, 5:03 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
603 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
SCZ007-052230-
Spartanburg SC-
603 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
At 603 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Columbus, or 4 miles west of Inman, moving east at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Inman, Lake Bowen and Gowensville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
LAT...LON 3512 8222 3510 8207 3499 8207 3497 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 251DEG 11KT 3504 8217
KRENTZ
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 5:18 PM EST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
618 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
SCZ014-052300-
Chester SC-
618 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EASTERN
CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 10 miles east of Chester, or near Richburg, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Fort Lawn, Richburg, Fishing Creek Reservoir and Edgemoor.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 8089 3465 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089
3460 8089 3456 8106 3472 8116 3482 8096
3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 235DEG 17KT 3468 8103
KRENTZ