Heavy Rain in North Carolina, August 15, 2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1132 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure and a slow moving front across
the area, will result in unsettled weather through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Saturday...

Very busy with flash flooding this morning. Latest surface
analysis shows a stationary boundary generally from the eastern
shore through RIC to the southern piedmont. Very heavy rainfall
associated with perhaps a weak wave along the boundary has set
up over southside RIC metro leading to up to 9 inches in parts
of Chesterfield County. Latest radar continues to show
development along the boundary across the southern Piedmont and
also along the boundary down the Peninsula. Latest HRRR and
NAM3km have locked into heavy pcpn this afternoon into this
evening along this boundary which makes sense given the current
radar. As such, no changes at this time to the current flash
flood watch but will need to look closely at possible expansion
northward if the heaviest rain shifts north slightly. Still
expecting development along a seocndary trough across southern
VA into NE NC as well later this afternoon given some partial
clearing helping to destabilize the atmosphere.

As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rain are
possible later this afternoon through this evening. Early
morning weather analysis reveals TS Kyle moving further off the
Mid-Atlantic coast and a weak area of low pressure across the TN
Valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to
remain nearly stationary near the VA/NC border which will become
the focus for showers or thunderstorms as we head through the
day. A wedge airmass is expected to form north of the boundary
across the VA Piedmont as high pressure builds down from the N
between the two systems.

The main threat today into tonight will be heavy rain and flooding.
With precipitable water values still at or above 2 inches, improving
upper support and the boundary slowly lifting north there is good
support for a significant heavy rain event. On average the region
could see 1 to 3 inches of rain, however, some locations along and
just north of the front could see even higher totals. As a result, a
Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for roughly the southern 2/3rds
of the forecast area (RIC and south). Very saturated grounds and low
FFG values will increase the risk for flash flooding across the
local area.

Instability will likely be lacking for northern portions of the area
as the wedge airmass sets up, more of stratiform type rain is
expected for these locations. Still some questions in general how
far north the heaviest rain develops due to the developing wedge
feature and it is possible the convective elements remain confined
to far S VA/NE NC, limiting heavy rainfall further to the north.
Opted to include up to RIC in the Flash Flood Watch to follow the
Day 1 ERO placement of the MDT risk.

Additional Flash Flood Watches may be needed for the Eastern
Shore/Northern Neck later this evening and tonight as the heavier
precip pivots further to the east.

Tricky temperature forecast today due to the wedge airmass.
Highs will likely only make reach the lower to mid 70s across the
far NW while highs across the SE climb into the lower 80s. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again during the day
(especially east) before drier conditions move in by Sunday night as
the surface trough finally moves off the coast. A weak front
potentially moves through the area Monday, bringing the slight
chance for a shower, but do expect generally dry conditions.

Slightly cooler (but still muggy) Sunday due to the rain/cloud
cover. Have highs ranging from the mid 70s across the NW to the
mid/upper 80s SE on Sunday. Monday will feature highs in the middle
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper level low pressure will be centered near/just east of the
Hudson Bay from early-mid next week, as the associated upper trough
axis digs into the Great Lakes and northeast. The upper trough axis
then eventually elongates south-southwestward to the MS River
Valley/GOMEX by the middle to end of next week. Unfortunately, this
means the unsettled pattern will stay with us through much of next
week (especially Wed-Fri). Tuesday looks to be the least active
day (lowest PoPs from Tue-Fri) with PoPs in the 25-40% range.
Then, expect (mainly diurnal) convection to increase in coverage
once again from the middle to end of next week. As a result,
have high chc PoPs for much of the area during the aftn/evening
hours from Wed-Fri. Am not expecting as much heavy rainfall
potential as the precipitable water values will not be as high
as they are now, but localized flooding will be possible each
day given wet antecedent conditions. Otherwise, temperatures
should be seasonable with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

Mainly a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions at the TAF sites to start
the forecast period. Showers remain widely scattered across the
area, thus the continued mention of VCSH in the forecast.
Showers early this morning are fairly light, with minimal
reductions in visibility expected. Generally expect the sites to
linger around MVFR through much of the forecast period with the
exception of SBY where VFR likely prevails through midday. A
slow moving boundary likely stalls near the VA/NC border later
today with the potential for heavier rainfall and MVFR to IFR
north of this boundary in any heavier showers. Northeast winds
between 5-10 knots will continue through the period.

Outlook:
Numerous showers/thunderstorms continue Saturday night as deep
moisture continues to move along the surface trough/cold front.
Sub-VFR conditions will be possible for the remainder of the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley
early this morning, with a stationary front located over NC.
Meanwhile, TS Kyle is tracking ENE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The wind is NE and ranges from 10-15kt N to 5-10kt S. Seas range
from 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N. High pressure remains anchored well NE of
the region today into tonight as an area of low pressure slowly
tracks along the stationary front across NC. A NE wind has the
potential to increase to 15-20kt for the ocean N of Parramore Is.
and the Bay N of New Point Comfort this aftn/evening. Seas build to
4-5ft today N of Chincoteague, and are expected to remain 4-5ft and
possibly up to 5-6ft through at least Sunday night. Therefore, the
SCA has been extended through 6 am Monday. An SCA has not been
issued for the Bay N of New Point Comfort at this time given that
the duration may be less than 3hrs. The pressure gradient slackens
later tonight into Sunday morning as the low tracks across the Mid-
Atlantic coast. The pressure gradient tightens again Sunday
aftn/Sunday night with the wind becoming N/NW 10-15kt. Seas are
expected to gradually subside to 3-4ft early next week. Weak high
pressure is expected to build into the area by Monday and Tuesday,
and then slide offshore Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ060-061-065>069-
     079>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/MRD
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

MDZ021>024-VAZ048-062-064-075>078-085-509>512-517>522-160815-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Goochland-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely through tonight.
Periods of locally heavy rainfall...and localized flash flooding are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>069-079>084-086>090-092-093-
095>098-513>516-523>525-160815-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-160815-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely through tonight.
Periods of locally heavy rainfall...and localized flash flooding are
possible.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

VAZ081-082-514-151530-
Charles City-Prince George-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col.
Heights)-
1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...WEST
CENTRAL CHARLES CITY AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGE COUNTIES...THE
CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF HOPEWELL AND THE CITY OF
PETERSBURG...

At 1040 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Lee,
moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Petersburg, Hopewell, Colonial Heights, Fort Lee, Chester, Prince
George, Adkins Store, Burrowsville, Garysville, Jordans Point,
Ettrick, Wayside, Birchett Estate, Jordan Point Country Club,
Petersburg National Battlefield, New Bohemia, Richard Bland College,
Prince George Golf and Barnetts.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3734 7743 3736 7731 3735 7729 3735 7727
      3737 7727 3741 7709 3718 7707 3714 7712
      3715 7740 3717 7740 3717 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 265DEG 8KT 3726 7733

Poche

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