Hail in North Carolina, April 8, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
728 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross our area from the northwest on Thursday
morning, with cool and very dry high pressure spreading over the
region for Friday and Saturday. Low pressure with abundant moisture
is expected to affect our region on Sunday and Monday before high
pressure returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 725 PM Wednesday: The squall line is encountering a somewhat
less favorable environment (mainly dry air at low levels) as it
moves into the area. This combined with the loss of daytime heating
may be enough to keep most of the stronger thunderstorms to the
east of the forecast area.

Otherwise, eyes have turned towards organized convection approaching
from the north this evening. This convection seems to be cool pool
dominated which should maintain it into this evening for eastern
portions of the forecast area even as we lose daytime heating.
Several bowing segments combined with steep low level lapse rates
and large DCAPE supports damaging wind as the main threat with large
hail also a concern. SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion east of
I-77 in North Carolina with a 40 percent chance of needing a watch.
The movement of this activity would take it towards the I-40
corridor, mainly east of Hickory around 9 pm and possible towards
Charlotte around 10 pm. Have updated the forecast to reflect the
thunderstorm chances and we'll be keeping a close eye on the radar
as this line moves into the region. Other isolated convection east
of Charlotte and along the escarpment also has the potential to
produce isolated damaging winds and hail and will be watched in the
interim.

A strong short wave crosses the area late tonight/early Thursday
pushing a cold front across the area. Strong to severe pre-frontal
convection is expected to develop to our NW and move into the
mountains before daybreak and cross the area early Thursday before
moving east before noon. Although instability will weaken given the
time of day, strong forcing and relatively steep lapse rates will be
enough to keep convection going as this system crosses the area.
Strong deep layer shear will continue, so some of the storms will be
severe, especially across the mountains, but possibly east of the
mountains as well. Lows tonight will be around 15 degrees above
normal.

Expect winds to turn to the west to NW behind the front and become
very gusty. Deep mixing on Thursday will tap stronger winds aloft
leading to wind gusts possibly reaching Wind Advisory level. Given
the potential for severe storms, will hold off on any Advisory for
now. The deep mixing will also lead to significant drying during the
day. Highs will be near normal across the mountains and up to 10
degrees above normal elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 pm Wednesday: quiet/unseasonably cool, but very dry
conditions are expected through the short term, as gradually
weakening high pressure oozes from the central Great Plains at the
start of the period, to off the Southeast Coast by the end of the
period. Gusty winds east of the surface high will be somewhat slow
to diminish Thu night into Friday...esp across the mtns. Meanwhile,
dewpoints will likely crash into the teens and lower 20s Fri
afternoon, so Fire Wx concerns will persist, despite cooler-than-
normal conditions. Temps will be 5-10 degrees below climo Fri
through Sat night, possibly yielding some frost concerns across the
I-40 corridor (the spring frost/freeze program remains inactive for
the mtns) Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 pm Wednesday: A split flow regime will be in place across
much of the Conus throughout at least the first half of the medium
range. Within that regime, a fast-moving and rather intense southern
stream short wave trough is expected to result in quickly
deteriorating weather across the Southeast early next week. The
global models continue to display substantial timing differences
regarding impacts to our CWA, with the GFS displaying its usual
hyper-progressive solution, which would have precip clearing the
forecast area a solid 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. This has
proven to be a consistent bias in the GFS this season, and we will
thus lean quite heavily on the ECMWF/Canadian solutions regarding
timing of pops, with chances peaking late Sunday into Sunday
evening. In terms of the potential impacts, all models agree that a
well-forced regime acting on strong Gulf inflow/unseasonably high
levels of moisture will yield some degree of a heavy rainfall threat
across the region. What is not as clear at this point is the severe
convective threat. Guidance is at odds regarding to what extent (if
any) in-situ cold air damming will be in play early next week, with
the GFS offering a more stable solution than the other global
models. Certainly if instability is realized Sunday/Sunday night,
the degree of forecast wind shear and forcing will be more than
supportive of a severe weather threat.

Forecast uncertainty persists through the end of the medium range,
with global models somewhat at odds regarding the potential for
frontogenetically-forced precip developing on the cool side of a
baroclinic zone in the Tue/Tue night time frame. Small pops are
carried in the forecast to account for this potential. Otherwise,
temps are expected to be near-to-slightly-below normal through much
of the period, with Sun night/Monday being above-climo exceptions in
the W/SW flow regime immediately in the wake of the early week storm
system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: An organized squall line near the NC/VA
border is expected to maintain itself as it moves into the I-40
corridor near KHKY around 01Z and near KCLT around 02Z with activity
dissipating for most by 03Z. A secondary squall line is expected
overnight into Thursday morning across the mountains and possibly
maintaining itself east of the mountains including KCLT. Gusty west
to northwest winds are expected in the wake of this activity
Thursday.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions continue Friday and Saturday.
Precipitation and restrictions return for Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep mixing behind the front Thursday will lead to very gusty
winds and significant drying. Wind gusts, and possibly sustained
winds, should reach Red Flag criteria by late morning into the
afternoon. Expect RH values to plummet and reach critical fire
weather levels during the afternoon. Hopefully there will be enough
wetting rainfall to limit fire weather concerns; however, the winds
and RH values will be high enough to potentially increase fire
danger. SC land managers have requested a Red Flag Watch for
Thursday. NC and GA land managers will be consulted on Thursday for
any needed statements or warnings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1893     41 1982     62 1908     22 2007
   KCLT      88 1929     44 1938     64 1882     21 2007
   KGSP      85 2015     40 1907     63 2001     24 2007
                2001

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL/PM
NEAR TERM...65/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
419 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SCZ001>007-010>013-019-092030-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
419 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
persist into this evening. One or two of the storms could become
strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threat.
The most likely place for that to happen would be along and east or
northeast of I-385 and I-26 late this afternoon. The storms should
dissipate by mid evening.

Late tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms may come over
the mountains and reach the Upstate and northeast Georgia in the
pre-dawn hours Thursday. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.
Later developments will determine if, when, and where a severe
thunderstorm watch would be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Fire Weather Watch.

A few severe thunderstorms could be ongoing across the region at
daybreak on Thursday. The storms are expected to move quickly to the
east and out of the area by late morning Thursday as a strong cold
front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-092030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
419 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
persist into this evening. One or two of the storms could become
strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threat.
The most likely place for that to happen would be along and east or
northeast of I-385 and I-26 late this afternoon. The storms should
dissipate by mid evening.

Late tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms may come over
the mountains and reach the Upstate and northeast Georgia in the
pre-dawn hours Thursday. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.
Later developments will determine if, when, and where a severe
thunderstorm watch would be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few severe thunderstorms could be ongoing across the region at
daybreak on Thursday. The storms are expected to move quickly to the
east and out of the area by late morning Thursday as a strong cold
front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-092030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
419 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today across the
mountains and foothills. Cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and
small hail are possible with any storm that develops. A few of the
storms could become strong to severe this afternoon, with large hail
and damaging wind gusts the main threat, mainly east of the Blue
Ridge. Thunderstorm activity should diminish for several hours this
evening.

However, during the early morning hours, a squall line of strong to
severe thunderstorms is expected to approach from east Tennessee and
reach the North Carolina mountains in the pre-dawn hours. If the
squall line develops, it would have the potential to produce
damaging wind gusts over several locations across the mountains. The
line of storms could even hold together and move out over the
foothills by daybreak. Later developments will determine if, when,
and where a severe thunderstorm watch would be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The threat for severe thunderstorms will diminish quickly Thursday
morning as a strong cold front sweeps the storms off to the east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

SCZ008-009-014-092030-
Cherokee-York-Chester-
419 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the western
Carolinas this afternoon and early this evening. Any thunderstorms
that develop will have a good chance to become strong to severe,
with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary threats. Cloud-
to- ground lightning and small hail can be expected with any storm
that develops. The storms should weaken around sunset.

Late tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms may come over
the mountains and reach the western Piedmont around daybreak
Thursday. Damaging winds would be the primary threat. Later
developments will determine if, when, and where a severe
thunderstorm watch would be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Fire Weather Watch.

A few severe thunderstorms could be ongoing across the region at
daybreak on Thursday. The storms are expected to move quickly to the
east and out of the area by late morning Thursday as a strong cold
front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-092030-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
419 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the western
Carolinas this afternoon and early this evening. Any thunderstorms
that develop will have a good chance to become strong to severe,
with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary threats. Cloud-
to- ground lightning and small hail can be expected with any storm
that develops. The storms should weaken around sunset.

Late tonight, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms may come over
the mountains and reach the western Piedmont around daybreak
Thursday. Damaging winds would be the primary threat. Later
developments will determine if, when, and where a severe
thunderstorm watch would be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few severe thunderstorms could be ongoing across the region at
daybreak on Thursday. The storms are expected to move quickly to the
east and out of the area by late morning Thursday as a strong cold
front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
716 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NCZ072-082345-
Cabarrus NC-
716 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CABARRUS COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Downtown Concord, or near Mt Pleasant, moving east at
30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Mt Pleasant and West Concord.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8045 3542 8069 3551 8061 3551 8059
      3545 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 291DEG 25KT 3538 8043

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
805 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NCZ033-501-090030-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Avery NC-
805 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 805 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beech Mountain, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Newland, Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Sugar
Mountain, Seven Devils, Grandfather Mountain State Park, B.R.
Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Linville and Globe.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
      3621 8191 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
      3611 8181 3612 8170 3605 8163 3598 8184
      3616 8201 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 327DEG 31KT 3622 8191

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
811 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-090045-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
811 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTH
CENTRAL GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 811 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Indian Land, or near Tega Cay, moving southeast at
20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Southwest Charlotte, Fort Mill, Pineville, South Gastonia,
Tega Cay, Clover, Steele Creek, Carowinds and Lake Wylie.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8077 3503 8080 3500 8084 3508 8091
      3503 8090 3501 8091 3499 8089 3495 8087
      3493 8089 3516 8132 3530 8125 3506 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 295DEG 16KT 3506 8097

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
830 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NCZ071-090100-
Mecklenburg NC-
830 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM EDT...

At 828 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary
producing strong wind gusts near Huntersville, moving southwest at
35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Central Charlotte, Northeast
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, Freedom Park,
University City, The Plaza and Charlotte Douglas Airport.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas. There are
no nearby storms associated with this boundary. Strong wind gusts
will develop quickly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 8078 3520 8101 3526 8101 3533 8098
      3534 8098 3536 8092 3537 8095 3538 8096
      3537 8097 3539 8097 3539 8095 3541 8096
      3546 8094 3537 8073 3535 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 026DEG 28KT 3539 8084

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
841 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NCZ056-068>072-082-508-090115-
Greater Rutherford NC-Gaston NC-Union NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
841 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS...SOUTHERN
CATAWBA...EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...CENTRAL
CLEVELAND...GASTON AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 839 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers along a
line extending from 14 miles west of Lincolnton to 16 miles northeast
of Monroe, and moving south at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Uptown Charlotte, Monroe, Shelby, Lincolnton, Huntersville,
Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte and Southwest
Charlotte.

Wind gusts of 30 to locally 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
There are no nearby storms associated with this boundary. Strong
wind gusts will develop quickly.

LAT...LON 3496 8030 3488 8033 3508 8091 3511 8093
      3509 8096 3512 8104 3515 8105 3516 8115
      3538 8183 3560 8142 3527 8045 3519 8051
      3517 8047 3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 014DEG 25KT 3554 8149 3515 8033

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
849 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NCZ068-070>072-082-SCZ008-009-090130-
Gaston NC-Union NC-Cleveland NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
Cherokee SC-
849 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CABARRUS...
MECKLENBURG...CLEVELAND...GASTON...UNION...CENTRAL YORK AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Shelby to 7 miles east of Indian Land, and
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, Monroe, Shelby, York, Central
Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte and East Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3508 8091
      3501 8091 3492 8086 3490 8088 3484 8087
      3521 8176 3544 8165 3524 8047 3519 8051
      3516 8046 3518 8037 3517 8036 3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 286DEG 13KT 3529 8156 3499 8073

Carroll