What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 29, 7:10 PM EST, 5 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 29, 7:10 PM EST, 5 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
810 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening through
tonight, bringing widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms. Cool
and breezy conditions are expected behind the front Thursday into
Friday. Warm and dry high pressure will settle over the region and
provide a significant warmup late in the weekend and early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 801 pm...a leading area of showers, with a few embedded
thunderstorms, was continuing to fill in and make steady eastward
progress across the forecast area, with most of the fcst area now
covered. Another line of showers and thunderstorms was approaching
from north GA. The results of the strong low level shear are seen
in the more isolated shower activity, with several exhibiting
enough rotation to be concerned about. A brief tornado out of
any convective cell is not out of the question, regardless of its
electrical activity or lack thereof. Temps are being modulated by
where precip was already falling, so some modification of that is
also in order.
Still expecting a strong dynamical system to affect the FA thru
most of the overnight period. An ULVL trof will continue deepen
and advance toward the area and become negatively tilted...thus
providing good dial flow aloft ahead of an active cold front. Due to
the neg tilting...the front will slow a little and allow for good
moisture transport over the wrn zones. With added upslope enhanced
lift...expect moderate to heavy -shra at times...esp across the srn
Blue Ridge Escarpment area where up to 3 inches of rain is possible
thru 06z. Areas north will also see enhanced lift with pockets
arnd 2.5 inches of rain possible thru the NRN NC mtns. This shud
be enuf rain to create ISOL hydro issues along area streams...so
the existing FF.A still looks good and will be re-issued.
The other concern this evening will be with a line of possibly
SVR tstms ahead of the cold front...where deep shear increases
to arnd 60 kts along with an increasingly strong llvl jet. With
added frontal forcing and upper support...a line of semi-organized
QLCS storms will likely develop and propagate east. The limiting
factor with the SVR potential will be instability. Soundings show
less available sbCAPE than the previous runs, yet they maintain
a couple hundred joules of shallow but elevated CAPE into the
overnight. The mid levels remain warm...so not anticipating deep
storms, thus the main threat looks be stg/svr convective outflows
with some large hail possible. With the tilting upper trof...the
models are now showing a slower FROPA, which may increase the severe
threat across the ern zones past 09z as mlvl LRs steepen to arnd 7
C/km by that time. Line breaks are possible...and a few relatively
weak tors may form along a south of I-85 where the stronger llvl
jet develops and higher instability exists.
Lingering -shra are anticipated across the NC mtns and fthills
Thu as the upper trof crosses the area. Min temps will remain
abv normal by a few cats while max temps Thu will be held a few
degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: A fairly deep upper low will wobble
southeastward thru the Central Appalachians Thursday night and
provide some moisture and steep mid-lvl lapse rates. An uptick in
showers is expected across the NC mountains, especially near the TN
line, as low-level flow becomes more NWLY. Elevations above about
5000 ft may see some snow mixing in, but little to no accumulation
is expected. NW flow showers may linger into Friday, but overall,
should taper off by the afternoon. The upper low will drift east off
teh Mid-Atlantic coast Friday aftn into Friday night, with a broad
upper ridge building in from the west. Temps will be below normal
Thursday night and Friday, but moderate to near normal by Saturday
as the mild high pressure builds in.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: A quasi-zonal upper flow pattern is
progged by the models across the CONUS for most of the medium range.
A series of shortwaves will dig across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Sunday thru Wednesday, gradually carving a longer wave trough
across the eastern CONUS. A fairly weak cold front will lay over the
area from the north on Monday, bringing some rain chances. Then
another front will quickly follow by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday, and may have a little more forcing and moisture to work
with. But overall, severe and flooding threats look low next week.
Temps will start out well above normal Sunday and Monday, then trend
back toward normal or slightly below normal by next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Rain with embedded thunderstorms...and
associated restrictions...will plague all TAF sites into the early
morning hours. The leading edge was just reaching KCLT at issuance
time. Gusty S wind will diminish as the main precip moves in. A
period of a few hours with mainly VFR conditions will be followed
by heavier precip that will lock in MVFR conditions in both vis
and ceiling, with temporary IFR possible. All TAF sites follow the
same general trend, with MVFR prevailing and TEMPO IFR conditions
through the end of operations later this evening. In the wake of
the precip, we can expect lingering MVFR clouds until closer to
daybreak, with a wind shift to SW. The balance of Thursday should
be VFR with a low cloud ceiling lingering into the afternoon. Shower
activity over the NC Piedmont was handled with a VCSH for now.
Outlook: Gusty winds, lingering clouds, and possibly some showers
will linger into Thursday night and possibly Friday. Dry and very
warm high pressure moves in from Saturday into early next week,
with VFR expected.
Confidence Table...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT High 85% High 81% High 84% High 99%
KGSP Med 79% Med 78% High 92% High 100%
KAVL High 89% High 80% High 82% High 97%
KHKY Med 75% High 84% High 87% High 99%
KGMU High 85% Med 75% High 95% High 100%
KAND High 86% High 90% High 92% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ033-049-050-
053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PMHazardous weather outlook, Apr 29, 10:03 PM EST, 2 hours 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1103 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>059-062-063-
068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-010315-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1103 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A series of slow moving squall lines with embedded showers and
thunderstorms will continue to push through the area late tonight and
into the overnight. Gusty winds and periods of heavy rain along and
ahead of the squall lines may result in minor flooding of small
streams and urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-010315-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1103 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
A series of slow moving squall lines with embedded showers and
thunderstorms will continue to push through the area late tonight and
into the overnight. Gusty winds and periods of heavy rain along and
ahead of the squall lines may result in minor flooding of small
streams and urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
JPT
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 29, 11:43 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
SCZ009-013-014-300515-
York SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHESTER...SOUTH CENTRAL
YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...
At 1243 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Union, or near Carlisle, moving northeast at 50
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
York, Chester, Rock Hill, Carlisle, Mcconnells, Lowrys, Chester State
Park, Leeds, Tuckertown and Santuc.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
&&
LAT...LON 3456 8159 3503 8125 3487 8098 3457 8130
3457 8142 3453 8143 3450 8142 3449 8143
3450 8144 3449 8144 3449 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 215DEG 44KT 3458 8145
RWHSpecial weather statement, Apr 29, 11:59 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1259 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
NCZ071-SCZ009-300530-
Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
1259 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN YORK
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...
At 1259 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Indian Land, or near Fort Mill, moving northeast at 55
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte,
Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte, Northwest
Charlotte, Matthews and Mint Hill.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
&&
LAT...LON 3503 8077 3500 8084 3508 8091 3503 8090
3501 8091 3496 8087 3492 8086 3485 8093
3499 8112 3545 8079 3543 8076 3540 8077
3535 8069 3527 8067 3522 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 214DEG 48KT 3503 8097
RWHSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 12:14 AM EST, 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
114 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
SCZ009-014-300545-
York SC-Chester SC-
114 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER AND
CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EDT...
At 114 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Chester, or over Lowrys, moving northeast at 55 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Chester, Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Newport, Mcconnells, Lowrys,
Lake Wylie, Carowinds and Lesslie.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
&&
LAT...LON 3468 8118 3478 8136 3515 8110 3515 8104
3513 8105 3511 8103 3509 8106 3506 8106
3504 8104 3511 8093 3506 8090 3503 8090
3501 8091 3498 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 214DEG 48KT 3480 8123
RWHSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 12:28 AM EST, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
128 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
NCZ057-071-072-300600-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
128 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...
At 128 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Uptown Charlotte, or near Reedy Creek Park, moving
northeast at 55 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Northeast
Charlotte, East Charlotte, West Concord, Matthews, Mint Hill and
Harrisburg.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
&&
LAT...LON 3511 8070 3522 8089 3572 8053 3557 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 214DEG 48KT 3525 8075
RWH
Special weather statement, Apr 30, 12:44 AM EST, 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
NCZ071-072-SCZ009-300615-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
144 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
MECKLENBURG AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT...
At 144 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Rock Hill, or near Tega Cay, moving northeast at 55
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Central Charlotte, South
Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte,
Northwest Charlotte and West Concord.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 8085 3502 8085 3508 8091 3503 8090
3501 8091 3498 8088 3488 8098 3499 8116
3515 8105 3516 8100 3520 8101 3548 8081
3533 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 214DEG 48KT 3501 8102
RWHSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 12:56 AM EST, 4 minutes before
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