A powerful storm system tracked across southern Canada during the evening and night of November 15th. A strong pressure gradient delivered 70-80 knot winds at and above 5000 feet from the surface.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A powerful storm system tracked across southern Canada during the evening and night of November 15th. A strong pressure gradient delivered 70-80 knot winds at and above 5000 feet from the surface. A cold front triggered some convective showers with a few isolated updrafts that tapped into the strong winds and briefly delivered 50+ knot winds to the surface in portions of St. Lawrence county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 15, 6:23 PM EST, 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 623 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Windy conditions will continue through this evening with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible, locally higher in northern New York. Widespread precipitation spreads across the North Country this afternoon. While most locations will experience rain, higher terrain of the Adirondacks, the Greens, and the Northeast Kingdom could see snow mix in at times. On Monday and Tuesday, rain and snow showers will gradually diminish, lingering longest in the mountains and downwind of Lake Ontario. It then turns dry and cold for Wednesday and Thursday. This will be followed by a weak disturbance on Friday, with a warming trend over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 619 PM EST Sunday...Organized line of convective showers, a few lightning strikes is moving through KART region and NE at 60 kts into St. Lawrence county, where SVRBTV in effect til 7 pm. Verified wind gusts 40-45 kts in KART region but >50 kts upstream earlier. Activity is now getting into more stable regime thus may not get >60 kts that are right off the deck but still some localized 45-50 kts possible. Grids/timing/coverage are all in great shape thus no changes to current forecast. Activiy across northern NY 7-9 pm and VT 830-10 pm. Afternoon Discussion...Wind gusts are starting to really ramp up across the North Country this afternoon. This is in response to deepening low pressure lifting through the Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec, dragging its attendant frontal boundary in its wake. A very impressive south to southeast low level jet exists out ahead of this front, as evidenced by gusts to 70 kt already being reported on top of Whiteface Mountain. Some of this wind is being mixed down to the surface, and while mixing isn't optimal, still expect gusts of 35 to 45 mph. The strongest gusts will be down the northwest slopes of the Adirondacks down into the St Lawrence Valley, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect since gusts of 50 mph are possible. More on that in a bit. The focus for the remainder of this afternoon into the evening is a thin line of showers and thunderstorms that is quickly moving east just ahead of the aforementioned front. This convective band currently stretches from eastern Lake Erie southward into western PA, and already has a history of producing wind damage with its passage. Instability is better in this area that here in the north; SB CAPE is very meager across the North Country, less than 50 J/kg. Therefore, expect that the strongest portion of this line will remain to our south. However, given the very strong low level flow, it will not take much to bring those stronger winds to the surface, even here in the North Country. The northern end of the more robust cells may well brush Rutland and Windsor Counties; it is these locations that have the best chance of seeing severe-level convective winds. However, a localized strong or damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out for much of the area given the wind field and strong dynamics. A rumble of thunder or two will also be possible, though coverage was not enough to include in the forecast at this time. The band should enter our western sections, the St Lawrence Valley, around 6-8 pm, the Champlain Valley 8-10 pm, and exit into NH by around midnight or so. Temperatures will warm or at least hold steady even after sunset as we see strong warm air advection ahead of the front, so anticipate precipitation will remain all rain as that band moves through. Once the front moves through, the flow turns to the southwest. While the core of the jet will shift to our east, there will still be 40- 50 kt just off the deck, and while strong cold air advection is not anticipated overnight, temperatures will cool enough to allow mixing to continue overnight. The St Lawrence Valley will see the strongest wind gusts through much of tonight, 35-45 mph. Much of northern New York will remain breezy though. Have therefore extended the Wind Advisory for the northern Adirondacks and the St Lawrence Valley through early tomorrow morning. The rain will quickly come to an end behind the front as well as we see a brief dry slot. However, the southwest winds will result in lake effect showers to develop across northern NY into northern VT. As mentioned above, there's no real cold push behind the front, so temperatures will be slow to fall overnight. Therefore, showers will be rain, gradually mixing with and changing to snow. Lows by dawn will be in the 30s, coldest in the higher terrain. The breezy conditions will continue on Monday as the upper low moves to our north. Brisk winds will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air, and the steepening low level lapse rates will allow stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Gusts of 25-35 mph can be expected, strongest across portions of northern New York. The aforementioned lake effect showers will continue to stream downwind of Lake Ontario, across the Adirondacks and into the northern Greens. The band will eventually shift south of our region later in the day as the winds turn to the west, but an upper shortwave rotating around the base of the low will skirt along the international border overnight, keeping mountain snow showers going through daybreak. Overall, snow amounts will be an inch or less, with a few inches at the higher elevations. Monday's highs will range from the upper 30s in the mountains to mid 40s in the wider valleys. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EST Sunday...A taste of winter with periods of flurries and mountain snow showers is expected on Tuesday. Still seeing forecast soundings indicating a moist layer in the dendritic growth zone, but cloud depth is shallow and limited forcing for ascent will limit snowfall during this period to mainly an inch or less and confined to the Adirondacks and Greens associated with occasional heavier snow showers. While surface temperatures should warm above freezing in the valley locations, cold air aloft should allow for flurries rather than sprinkles with surface temperatures even when temperatures are well into the 30s. Given the shallow clouds and west-northwest flow, expect downslope areas into the Champlain Valley and eastern Vermont to see peaks of sunshine with other areas more persistently cloudy. Towards evening, as the base of a shortwave trough exits to our east, top-down drying should shut off any precipitation except for in the highest terrain. The door will be opened for Arctic air to drop southward, resulting in a blustery night with northwest winds frequently blowing above 15 MPH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 339 PM EST Sunday...We are still on track to see the coldest conditions of the season on Wednesday. Additionally, northwest winds gusting up to 20 MPH in many areas will persist, resulting in wind chills in the single digits and teens. While temperatures won't be record-breaking, it will be a stark change from a week ago to date when highs were more than 40 degrees warmer. Clouds should tend to decrease later in the day, setting the stage for a cold night. On Thursday a warm front will push through from the west, which could support a brief period of light snow or rain, mainly over the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Northeast Highlands over Essex County, Vermont. A fairly deep layer of dry air above the surface will limit the precipitation. Otherwise, while warmer than Wednesday, breezy south or southwest winds will make it feel a bit raw out. Little sunshine is expected with a lot of mid-level clouds expected, with the best chance for blue skies over southern Vermont with perhaps some clearing throughout the Champlain Valley during the afternoon. A zonal upper-level pattern then gets established from Thursday night through Saturday which means fast moving, weaker weather systems that currently are low chance of rain or snow showers for any particular time period. The position of the jet stream favors precipitation mainly across northern areas, especially on Friday, but as of now chances are low. Weak warm advection on Friday will be followed by cold advection on Saturday with temperatures within 5 degrees of normal during this period, with breezy northwest winds on Saturday mainly over Vermont due to surface high pressure positioned closer to northern New York in the vicinity of southwestern Quebec. It looks like another active Sunday is in the cards. The combination of an upper-level trough digging southward and surface low pressure lifting northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the eastern Great Lakes will bring us widespread precipitation. First pass at the data would suggest snow changing to rain in much of the North Country with a storm track over or just west of the St. Lawrence Valley, with potential for a cold air damming scenario over eastern Vermont. However, run-to-run differences in models suggests at this time only a slight chance of rain and snow across the North Country is reasonable. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Currently VFR, with light precipitation continuing to move across the region. Southeasterly winds will continue to increase to 15 to 25 knots sustained, with gusts of 30 to 35 kts this afternoon. Areas of LLWS are also expected as a strong southerly jet moves overhead. LLWS will be strongest until 01Z Monday. Only light precipitation is expected through about 21z. More widespread rain thereafter with a potential convective line to move west to east 22z-03z. After 02Z, winds become southwesterly, remaining elevated at 10 to 15 knots sustained and gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Given the expected winds, most TAF sites should remain VFR despite the onset of rainfall, with general deterioration to MVFR ceilings only expected after 21Z. Ceilings improve after 04Z as dry slot of low pressure moves in. After 07Z, lake effect rain or snow showers could impact SLK, which will continue through much of the rest of the TAF period. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... A strong low pressure system will produce strong southeast to south winds that will channel through the Champlain Valley. Winds will be strongest from noon today through midnight with sustained winds of 15 to 28 knots, and gusts as high as 40 knots on Lake Champlain today. Waves are expected to increase to 4 to 6 feet in response to strong winds. Winds gradually subside after midnight, but remain 10 to 20 knots. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ026-027-029>031-087. && SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/SLW SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Hastings MARINE...WFO BTV
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 NYZ026-027-029>031-087-162030- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Southeastern St. Lawrence- Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-Southwestern St. Lawrence- 329 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ028-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-162030- Eastern Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor- Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- 329 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Gusty southeast to south winds are expected late this afternoon through midnight. Max wind gusts in the Champlain Valley and into Vermont will be 30 to 45 mph. There could be a few isolated occurrences of wind gusts up to 50 mph along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains, or with a line of gusty showers expected between 7 and 9 PM. A few downed tree limbs could cause localized power outages. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
529 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0526 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NE UPPER JAY 44.37N 73.74W
11/15/2020 ESSEX NY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
4 TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES ON SHELBRAKE ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER BTV2001250
RSDThe Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
St. Lawrence county Fire control reported several incidents of downed tree branches and utility lines just east of Ogdensburg, including Flackville and Heuvelton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, November 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 922215.