Another very dry month with little in the way of monsoon moisture worsened drought conditions across southwest and south-central New Mexico. Some areas around the Gila region were placed into Exceptional(D4) drought conditions while most other areas were at least in Severe(D2) drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 13 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Another very dry month with little in the way of monsoon moisture worsened drought conditions across southwest and south-central New Mexico. Some areas around the Gila region were placed into Exceptional(D4) drought conditions while most other areas were at least in Severe(D2) drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 10:31 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1131 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE... A few areas of showers and thunderstorms with visibility below 3 miles...skies BKN040 and wind gusts to 40 kts mainly after 20Z. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions with skies SCT-BKN060-100 and winds 10-20 kts. && .PREV DISCUSSION...210 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020... .SYNOPSIS... An upper level storm system will move to the east of the area Tuesday and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms across area with best chances far west during the day Tuesday and then shifting to the far east overnight. Dry weather returns through Thursday with temperatures warming back above normal for a day or two. Temperatures cool to near normal for the weekend with some isolated thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday... Upper high over southern Gulf of California and weak upper low west of southern California continue the west flow across the CWA today. Trapped residual moisture, aloft and at the ground, is still remaining mostly in place over the high. WV imagery shows some of the moisture is starting to shear off to the east though. At the surface high dewpoints (mid 40s north, mid 50s south) persist with some breezy west/northwest winds. A backdoor front has surged across NE New Mexico and is through Roswell and Artesia-almost to Ruidoso. Feature looks a bit stronger than models depict but large scale west to southwest flow at low levels should keep it from much intrusion into our CWA. After persistent morning cloud cover, the skies are clearing early this afternoon. Visible satellite shows both Sac and Gila/Black Range mountains boiling up pretty good cumulus but not showing much as yet on the radar. Still expect isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. Better moisture across southern zones may favor this area tonight. Relatively small dewpoint depressions and low DCAPE values suggest little potential for damaging winds tonight. So only lower impact winds (30-40 mph) expected with storms. For Tuesday it will be the battle of drier air versus maybe better large scale forcing. Upper low over eastern Idaho will drop down into NW New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. This will advect in drier air, though some moisture will linger over the southern zones. Expect isolated mountain thunderstorms in the afternoon, perhaps spreading to the lowlands late afternoon into the evening. Again dewpoint depressions and DCAPE suggest only moderate wind gust potential. Did notice WBZ are about 1000 ft lower than today, so small/medium hail possible with some storms. && .LONG TERM... Upper low/trough will be moving SE over eastern NM to start the period with northerly flow behind it. Looks like decent amount of lift, especially closer to the low and have in some chance pops over Sacs and tapering off heading into Hudspeth county. Best moisture actually lingers around the NM Bootheel, so did also keep some pops in that area for Tue evening. Breezy winds expected to gradually die off through the night, but may keep enough mixing to keep lows from really bottoming out. As the northerly flow gets established for midweek, much drier air moves in with some areas seeing dew points dropping into the 30s. No mention of precip through Thursday night. For Friday into the weekend, some significant differences showing up in the models with the GFS basically dry besides some mountains showers as moisture tries to return on an east to northeast flow with upper high over the Great Basin. EC is bringing an easterly wave which is just the upper low moving through early in the period retrograding back but with some decent moisture. EC trend between 00Z and 12Z run is to push the wave south and not as potent. GFS and Canadian ensembles have really no indication of the EC scenario playing out with just a weak, nearly stationary trough sitting over east TX/w LA. Tapered back NBM pops, especially over western areas but did keep some 20-30 pops in the east where with easterly flow bringing modest moisture back, some storms are possible. Highs in general look to be warming back above normal with the drier air and by Thursday could see upper 90s to near 100 degrees return for many lowland areas. Temperatures start to cool as the easterly flow becomes better established going into the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Still some precip in expected in the short term. Isolated thunderstorms still possible tonight and Tuesday, with the usual preferred area of the mountains. Chances of rain greatly decrease Wednesday through Friday as upper high moves in over Nevada, forcing dry Great Basin airmass over the fire zones. Models trying to show a chance of rain again by late Friday/Saturday and Sunday as the upper high recedes and we return to an easterly flow aloft. Temperatures will remain above normal, but lower than of the recent week or two. Min RHs in the 20s Tuesday across the lowlands, lowering into the teens Wednesday through Friday. Min RHs 35-45% mountains Tuesday, falling into the 20s Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates good to very good through Friday. && && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 74 91 69 / 20 30 10 10 Sierra Blanca 90 69 89 66 / 20 40 20 20 Las Cruces 91 68 89 61 / 20 30 10 10 Alamogordo 92 68 89 60 / 20 30 20 30 Cloudcroft 70 51 67 42 / 30 40 30 30 Truth or Consequences 93 68 86 62 / 20 30 30 20 Silver City 84 61 79 55 / 30 40 50 30 Deming 92 67 89 60 / 20 30 20 20 Lordsburg 88 66 88 63 / 40 40 50 30 West El Paso Metro 95 74 90 68 / 20 30 10 10 Dell City 93 70 92 61 / 20 40 20 20 Fort Hancock 96 73 93 67 / 20 40 10 10 Loma Linda 87 68 87 62 / 20 40 10 10 Fabens 93 73 90 67 / 20 40 10 10 Santa Teresa 93 71 90 63 / 20 30 10 20 White Sands HQ 92 69 89 64 / 20 30 20 20 Jornada Range 90 64 88 57 / 20 30 20 20 Hatch 92 66 89 62 / 20 30 20 20 Columbus 92 68 89 62 / 30 30 20 20 Orogrande 92 69 90 62 / 20 30 20 20 Mayhill 77 59 79 50 / 30 30 40 30 Mescalero 78 57 78 46 / 30 30 40 30 Timberon 75 57 77 46 / 30 40 30 30 Winston 83 57 80 46 / 20 40 40 30 Hillsboro 90 64 85 55 / 20 30 30 20 Spaceport 90 64 88 58 / 10 30 20 20 Lake Roberts 83 55 79 44 / 30 30 50 30 Hurley 86 63 82 56 / 20 30 50 30 Cliff 84 60 84 50 / 30 40 50 30 Mule Creek 83 59 82 48 / 30 40 40 30 Faywood 87 63 84 54 / 20 30 40 20 Animas 89 66 87 58 / 40 50 50 30 Hachita 89 65 88 58 / 40 40 40 30 Antelope Wells 87 65 84 60 / 50 50 30 30 Cloverdale 80 64 79 58 / 60 70 50 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 05-Rogash/34/99
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 NMZ401>403-408-414>416-011730- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Eastern Black Range Foothills- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico and southwest New Mexico. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph possible with these storms, along with brief heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph possible with these storms, along with pea-size hail. No hazardous weather after Tuesday is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NMZ404>407-409>413-417-TXZ418>424-011730- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin- Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County- Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph possible with these storms, along with brief heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday. Gusty winds to 45 mph possible with these storms along with pea-size hail. No hazardous weather after Tuesday is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Hefner
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
13 drought, 1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
The entire zone started the month in Severe(D2) drought and was in Exceptional(D4) drought by the end of the month. The Buckhorn Cooperative Observer reported just 0.18 inches of precipitation in September, which was 1.64 inches below normal.
Severe(D2) drought conditions were located over the western and central parts of the zone to start September. At the end of the month, the western portion was in Exceptional(D4) drought and the central remained in Severe(D2) drought and the east in Moderate(D1). The Gila Hot Springs Cooperative Observer reported 0.81 inches of precipitation which was 1.11 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought conditions were located over the southwest portion of the zone with Severe(D2) conditions across the northeast.
The month started with Severe(D2) drought conditions over the far west and Extreme(D3) conditions elsewhere. By the end of the month, the far northwest was in Exceptional(D4) drought and Severe(D3) conditions elsewhere. The White Signal Cooperative Observer reported 0.54 inches of precipitation in September which was 1.12 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought conditions persisted throughout the month for the entire zone. The Cooperative Observer at Antelope Wells reported 0.17 inches of precipitation, which was 1.39 inches below normal.
The entire zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought conditions for the month of September.
September started out with Severe(D2) drought conditions in the far northeast and Extreme(D3) conditions elsewhere. By the end of the month, the southwest half of the zone was in Extreme(D3) drought with slight improvements to Moderate(D1) drought over the northeast. The Deming Airport reported 0.86 inches of precipitation, which was 0.44 inches below normal. All of the precipitation for the month fell on September 9th.
The month started with Seere(D2) drought conditions over the far south but improved to Moderate(D1) drought on September 15th. The Hillsboro Cooperative Observer reported 1.33 inches of precipitation, which was 0.70 inches below normal.
Severe(D2) drought conditions were located over the far southwest to start the month but improved to Moderate(D1) drought on September 15th. The Truth or Consequences Airport reported 0.50 inches of precipitation, which was 1.23 inches below normal.
The zone started with Severe(D2) conditions over the west but on September 15th, only the far southwest was in Severe(D2) drought.
The month started with Severe(D2) drought over the west and spread to all areas but the northeast by the end of the month. The Cooperative Observer at New Mexico State University reported 0.43 inches of precipitation which was 0.90 inches below normal.
Severe(D2) drought conditions persisted through the entire month of September.
The month started with Severe(D2) drought conditions over just the far northeast but by the end of the month was located over the eastern three-fourths of the zone.
The month started with Severe(D2) drought over the west and spread to all areas but the northeast by the end of the month. The Cooperative Observer at New Mexico State University reported 0.43 inches of precipitation which was 0.90 inches below normal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, September 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 920458, 920459, 920462, 920464, 920465, 920466, 920467, 920468, 920469, 920470, 920471, 920472, 920473, 928457.