Continued very dry conditions across the region lead to severe to exceptional drought conditions to expand and worsen over southern New Mexico during the month of November.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Continued very dry conditions across the region lead to severe to exceptional drought conditions to expand and worsen over southern New Mexico during the month of November.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:15 PM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1115 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Winds are gradually shifting to an east or northeasterly direction, but are light. Winds between 1000 and 2000 feet AGL are expected to increase around 9z, and this may lead to LLWS across LRU, ELP, and perhaps DMN. Surface winds should mainly remain 10-15 with a few gusts up to 25 knots. Winds may become a bit more gusty towards 18z. && Brown .PREV DISCUSSION...145 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Calm and warm weather today with partly cloudy skies. Tonight around midnight, a dry backdoor coldfront will approach the area. Windy conditions will exist for some areas, especially west slopes of higher terrain, this morning. Winds will calm down tomorrow afternoon, and temperatures will be a few degrees below normal. easterly winds will persist through mid week, meaning temperatures should remain near or a few degrees below normal. Temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees below normal mid week, but could drop back down to normal by the end of next week with some possible cloud cover moving in. There is a chance for rain next weekend, but confidence is low due to the chance landing on days 7-9. && ED .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... Looks like a very pleasant Halloween night across the borderland, with mild overnight temperatures and light winds. Skies will continue to be partly cloudy as high clouds pass overhead under a full moon. Winds will begins to shift to the east after midnight as a dry cold front into the area. This airmass is shallow and will do little to change temperatures, however winds will be quite gusty in the early morning hours as the boundary accelerates. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible along the west slopes and mountain gaps in El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Portions of Dona Ana and Luna Counties will also see gusty winds develop by sunrise. At the moment, it looks like the strongest flow will remain aloft about 1,000-2,000 feet above the surface. Therefore, decided to hold off any wind advisory headlines as gusty conditions will likely be limited to high terrain and west slopes overnight. Gusty east winds will continue into Sunday morning across the I-10 corridor, around 15 to 25 mph near Deming and Lordsburg. Temperatures behind the cold front will be slightly cooler on Sunday, with a 5 to 10 degree cooling dropping lowland highs back to around 70 degrees. Dry and partly cloudy weather will continue as the upper ridge lingers. && .LONG TERM....Monday through Sunday.. As we move into this week, a weak upper level low spins over southern CA while a deeper trough resides over the eastern Great Lakes region. In between is a ridge centered over NM/CO. At the surface, a colder and heavier air mass remains directly to our east. With warmer temperatures to our west, the gradient will keep our winds easterly through mid week. Due to this, temperatures will remain near or a few degrees below normal for Monday and Tuesday. Winds should be calm and skies mostly clear, making the beginning of next week pleasant. Tuesday afternoon, the closed low over southern CA begins to open up and becomes absorbed into the flow by Wednesday. The open wave tracks over central NM Wednesday mid day. Winds will try to turn westerly at the surface, but remain light. Mixing heights look to rise to around 650mb, however the winds aloft are from 30kts to 40kts at most. The westerly flow should allow temperatures to rise back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A quick lived ridge builds north and into the area from MX for Thursday, allowing temperatures to rise a few more degrees. At this time, another low spins off the south CA coast. Models start to diverge here (at day 7), with the GFS bringing a tropical system into the southeast portion of this low. This will advect some moisture ahead of a pacific NW system that looks to drop down here next weekend. The ECM keeps the low dry, but agrees on a deeper pacific NW system dropping down. One thing to note is that the NHC's forecast does keep a 70% chance of a depression forming next week in this area. We will keep an eye on how models continue to handle next weekend. && ED .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather is expected to continue throughout next week with fire danger remaining low. A dry cold front arrives Sunday morning, turning winds to the east and causing gusty conditions along the international border. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible Sunday morning along west slopes and mountain ridgelines, decreasing into the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, though still near climate normals for early November. Another warming trend will occur this week, pushing temperatures back to around 10 degrees above normal by next Thursday. Winds will be weaker the rest of the week with light east flow. Minimum relative humidity generally 20-30% each afternoon with good overnight recoveries. Smoke ventilation will be Poor to Fair as mixing heights barely reach 4,000 feet in the afternoons. && 30-Dennhardt && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 51 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 45 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 31 52 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 70 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 47 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 46 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 71 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 71 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 43 69 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 48 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 48 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 46 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 58 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 34 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 37 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 68 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 42 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 70 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 46 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 73 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 70 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for NMZ404-407-411. TX...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for TXZ418-420-422. && 99/99/34
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 311 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-010915- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 311 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday On Sunday, gusty winds to 45 mph are possible along the western slopes of area mountains due to the passage of a backdoor cold front. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at through the rest of the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Crespo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
15 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Exceptional(D4) drought conditions continued across the zone through the month of November. The Buckhorn Cooperative Observer reported 0.23 inches of precipitation which was 0.68 inches below normal.
The month started out with Exceptional(D4) drought conditions in the west and Severe(D2) conditions in the central. By the end of the month, Severe(D2) drought conditions expanded into the east half of the zone.
The month started with Extreme(D3) drought conditions over the southwest and Severe(D2) drought to the northeast. By the end of the month, the southwest was in Exceptional(D4) drought and Extreme(D3) drought over the northeast.
The far northwest part of the zone started the month in Exceptional(D4) drought with Extreme(D3) elsewhere. At the end of November the entire zone was in Exceptional(D4) drought. The Cooperative Observer at White Signal reported 0.22 inches of precipitation which was 0.96 inches below normal.
The month started with Extreme(D3) drought across the zone, by the end of November, the entire zone was in Exceptional(D4) drought. There was no precipitation reported at the Cooperative Observer in Antelope Wells which was 0.78 inches below normal.
The zone started with Extreme(D3) drought and went to Exceptional(D4) drought by the end of the month.
The month started with Extreme(D3) drought over the southwest to Moderate(D1) over the northeast. By the end of November, Exceptional(D4) drought existed over the west to Severe(D2) drought over the northeast. The Deming Airport reported only 0.07 inches of precipitation which was 0.64 inches below normal.
The month started with Severe(D2) drought over the far southwest, but on November 10th, the entire zone was in Severe(D2) drought.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought through the month. The lNew Mexico State University Cooperative Observer reported no precipitation which was 0.46 inches below normal.
The entire zone started the month in Severe(D2) drought, but by the end of the month Extreme(D3) drought moved into the eastern half of the zone.
The month started with Severe(D2) drought over just the far northeast. The end end of November, Extreme(D3) drought existed over the northeast with Severe(D2) elsewhere.
November started with Extreme(D3) drought over the north and Severe(D2) in the south. By the end of the month, Exceptional(D4) drought moved into the north and Extreme(D3) drought across the south. The Mountain Park Cooperative Observer reported 0.55 inches of precipitation which was 0.62 inches below normal.
The month started with Extreme(D3) drought north and Severe(D2) drought south. By the end of the month, Exceptional(D4) drought spread across the entire zone. The Cloudcroft Cooperative Observer reported 0.60 inches of precipitation which was 0.90 inches below normal.
The northern half of the zone started in Extreme(D3) drought north and Severe(D2) drought south. Exceptional(D4) drought overspread the entire zone by the end of the month.
Extreme(D3) to Severe(D2) drought covered the eastern three-fourths of the zone at the beginning of the month. At the end of November, Exceptional(D4) drought was over the far northeast and down to Severe(D2) drought over the far west.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, November 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 927407, 927408, 927411, 927414, 927417, 927418, 927422, 927436, 927437, 927438, 927454, 927457, 927460, 927461, 927462.