A back door cold front draped over northeast New Mexico served as the focus for shower and thunderstorm development on the evening of May 16, 2020. Isolated showers first developed along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before pushing east across the Interstate 25 corridor into northeast New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A back door cold front draped over northeast New Mexico served as the focus for shower and thunderstorm development on the evening of May 16, 2020. Isolated showers first developed along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before pushing east across the Interstate 25 corridor into northeast New Mexico. A couple of these storms became strong to severe with large hail and heavy rainfall. The strongest storms impacted the area around Maxwell and Roy where nickel to half dollar size hail was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 4:27 PM MST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail across central and western NM, but MVFR conditions are likely to develop overnight across northeast and east central NM. MVFR conditions will likely impact KLVS and potentially KTCC although confidence is lower there. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across NE NM through the evening and overnight hours. With a cold front pushing west through the central mountain chain, gusty east canyon winds will develop after midnight at KABQ, but an Airport Weather Warning is not anticipated. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION...253 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A potential for thunderstorms continues tonight across the northeast, with the possibility of some storms being strong to severe with large hail and gusty winds. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across northeast and east central New Mexico. Some storms may produce large hail and gusty winds. Dry and warm conditions will prevail into Monday, with high temperatures climbing well above normal. Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday in northwest and north central New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely be dry with gusty winds. Warm and dry conditions return Wednesday, as a weak system moves across the southwest, bringing breezy conditions to a majority of New Mexico. With the passage the system, a slight cooldown is expected, bringing temperatures across northern and central New Mexico to near normal. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night)... Another weak backdoor front pushing into eastern NM is bringing low layer moisture with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, creating a good environment for thunderstorm development when coupled with weak upslope flow. Stronger winds aloft rounding the base of an upper level trough/low, currently ejecting out of the central/northern Rockies, are creating increased shear profiles across northeast NM compared to yesterday. The 19Z LAPS analysis shows fairly weak surface-based instability, but on the uptrend and should provide around 1400-1600 J/Kg of CAPE by 21Z according to the 12Z NAM12. This modest instability coupled with increasing 0-6km bulk shear of 35-45kts across northeast NM should provide a favorable environment for strong to severe storms with a decent shot at seeing supercells later this afternoon/evening. The latest LAPS and SREF show convective initiation near Raton, with southeast movement toward Clayton and Tucumcari into the evening hours. The backdoor front is forecast to progress westward overnight and push to between the RGV and Continental Divide, creating gusty east canyon/gap winds. An upper level ridge is forecast to build over NM Sunday, leading to warmer temperatures and suppressing convective activity across eastern NM. A storm or two still possible by late Sunday afternoon near Raton, but should otherwise be a downtrend compared to today. Late day virga showers are possible across central NM, including the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros, utilizing what little moisture remains from the earlier backdoor push. 11 LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)... Upper level ridging across eastern New Mexico will bring warm conditions to the state Monday, with high temperatures reaching ten to seventeen degrees above normal in some areas. Amplifying southwest flow will help to add to this increase in temperature, as the ridge ejects to the east through the day. This pattern along with decent southwesterly flow at 700mb will allow the advection of low level moisture into southern New Mexico Monday night. An upper level low will push into the Rockies Tuesday likely helping to pull mid- level moisture northward. While the quality of the low- level moisture looks questionable, there should be enough at mid- levels to support scattered thunderstorms across the northwest and north central portions of New Mexico into Tuesday afternoon. With the lack of quality of moisture, storms are more likely to be dry and high- based, with little to no measurable precipitation. Forecast soundings continue to display an inverted-V signature, along with high LCLs suggesting the possibility for erratic and gusty winds with any storms that develop. The trough will eject to the east, with increasing positive tilt as it moves across the intermountain west. With its orientation and the potential lack of moisture the question remains whether the system will have the fuel it needs for convective development on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are in agreeance on a drier solution, with the CMC maintaining a moisture rich environment across the Eastern Plains. Regardless of storm potential, a jet max will dig its way into the state creating a strongly coupled atmosphere leading to windy conditions across New Mexico. With the departure of the trough Thursday, zonal flow will dominate through the start of the weekend. West-southwesterly flow will persist alongside a dry atmosphere moving into the weekend, allowing temperatures a return to near to above normal. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... A few wetting storms are likely across northeast NM this afternoon/evening, but otherwise a warming trend is in play through Monday as an upper level ridge builds over the state leading to a hot, dry and unstable atmosphere. A Pacific trough/low is forecast to approach Tuesday and move across the region Wednesday. Models are trending drier with each run with PWATs and chances for wetting precipitation on Tuesday before the dry slot hits on Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are looking more likely Tuesday across central and western NM and may spread east to near the TX border on Wednesday as a Pacific front moves through. Although winds may not hit critical threshold Thursday through Saturday, it's looking more and more like a fire growth pattern given moderate westerlies and a hot, dry and unstable atmosphere in place. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 301 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 NMZ201>241-171100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 301 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through the overnight period across northeast and east central New Mexico. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Thunderstorms remain possible on Sunday across northeast and east central New Mexico, and once again, a few storms may be strong or severe. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again on Tuesday over central and eastern New Mexico. Gusty winds will be possible with any storm, though across the east, hail will be possible as well. Though there is much uncertainty, a dryline may set up over eastern New Mexico on Wednesday, which would be a focus for additional severe weather. Critical fire weather conditions will also be possible on Tuesday across far northwest and west central New Mexico and again on Wednesday across eastern New Mexico west of the dryline. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report hail and damaging winds through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 12
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
539 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020
NMZ228-170000-
Far Northeast Highlands-
539 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...
At 538 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maxwell, or 11 miles north of Springer, moving southeast at 10 mph.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Springer and Maxwell.
This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 411 and 433.
&&
LAT...LON 3649 10432 3646 10432 3645 10429 3631 10461
3655 10470 3665 10448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 332DEG 11KT 3652 10454
15The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 218 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:49 UTC.
5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Nickel size hail reported with a slow-moving thunderstorm along I-25 near Maxwell.
Quarter size hail reported with a slow-moving thunderstorm near I-25 south of Maxwell.
Quarter size hail reported with a slow-moving thunderstorm along I-25 south of Maxwell.
Lots of hail up to the size of nickels covering the ground near Mills Canyon.
Half dollar size hail reported near Mills Canyon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 881523, 881524, 881525, 881526, 881527.