A weak back door cold front sagged southwestward into northeast New Mexico on June 18, 2020. The combination of brisk northwest flow aloft with deeper moisture and instability along the cold front boundary set the stage for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A weak back door cold front sagged southwestward into northeast New Mexico on June 18, 2020. The combination of brisk northwest flow aloft with deeper moisture and instability along the cold front boundary set the stage for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. One strong thunderstorm developed over Harding County and produced heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail up to the size of nickels near Rosebud.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 4:24 PM MST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 524 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE MVFR vis reductions will be the main concern through the western half of the state stretching into the RGV tonight into Friday morning. A stalled backdoor frontal boundary through northeastern NM will surge south and west overnight, bringing an east canyon winds to KABQ by the 09Z-12Z timeframe peaking by 12Z. This could temporarily increase vis at KABQ by mixing up the smoke a bit. Of course there is high uncertainty with how those ingredients will indeed mix together. Low cigs are likely at KLVS and possibly as far as KSAF behind the backdoor front early Friday morning. Light -ra and -shra may reach parts of northeastern NM from KRTN to KCAO to KTCC. The front reaches KROW bringing a northerly wind shift near 11Z. Smoke looks to mix out around 18Z with breezy southwest winds expected to return during the afternoon hours through much of NM expect the far northeastern plains. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Smoke will continue to blow in from wild fires in Arizona into New Mexico tonight and through Friday afternoon and night. A backdoor cold front makes its way into the northeast and northern mountains later today into tonight and across the eastern central areas Friday. Storms are expected in the afternoon on Friday favoring the far eastern plains. Some storms could be strong to severe. Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue for eastern New Mexico into Saturday. High pressure builds over Arizona Sunday, bringing a drier and warmer regime to the Land of Enchantment through Monday. Another backdoor front pushes into northeastern New Mexico Monday night, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to eastern New Mexico Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The rest of the area will remain dry with above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... Smoke from wildfires to our southwest and west which covered a large portion of central NM this morning has tended to become more diffuse as it's continued to be transported eastward. Meanwhile, this afternoon's smoke plumes were starting to spread into portions of western NM. HRRR smoke model continues to indicate another large batch of smoke will impact much of western and central NM later tonight and early Friday. While Albuquerque has a Health Alert in place for tonight, there is potential for additional air quality products to be issued as the situation develops. Otherwise, a front has pushed into northeast NM, and this boundary will set up the chance for showers and storms there tonight. A relatively light to briefly moderate east wind may push into the RGV late tonight through midmorning Friday. Any moisture increase associated with the east wind would most likely mix out in the afternoon, but can't rule out isolated dry convection over the north central if its a bit stronger than models suggest. The change in low level winds may also briefly help or aggravate the smoke situation in the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro. On Friday, the front in the eastern plains will also lead to the potential for a few strong to severe storms. SPC Day 2 outlook has brought the marginal risk westward to the just east of the Pecos Valley, with the slight risk brushing our east central border with TX. Highs Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal over the northeast, and within a few degrees of normal elsewhere. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Chances for precipitation will linger as a trough begins to eject into the Great Plains, with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring the far northeast and eastern plains Saturday. High pressure begins to build over AZ starting Sunday and is forecasted to track into NM through the week, bringing drier air and warmer temperatures in its wake due to rising heights. Lingering moisture in the NE may result in a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the far northeastern portions of the state Sunday afternoon through the night. Embedded disturbances within the upper level pattern will shoot down NW flow Monday night, as a backdoor front works its way into northern and eastern NM. Temperatures east of the central mtn chain will cool 4-6 degrees. Meanwhile, moisture behind the backdoor front is pulled into NM, reintroducing the potential for showers and thunderstorms across northeastern NM Tuesday and across the central mtn chain Wednesday. In the presence of NW flow aloft, the potential exists for a few of these storms to become strong to severe both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A dryline looks to setup Thursday afternoon across eastern NM, along with the advection of moisture from the south. Currently, the GFS and CMC are in agreement with placing the boundary across the eastern plains, while the ECMWF positions it more along the TX border. The GFS shows above average run-to-run consistency for PWATs, while the NAEFS suggests little departure from normal. While it's too early to nail down timing and placement, this may be a feature to watch moving into next week, especially given the possibility of persisting NW flow aloft. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry conditions to continue over western and central New Mexico through Sunday with poor overnight humidity recoveries, single digit humidities and high Haines. In fact, 5-10 consecutive hours of single digit humidities are forecast for much of the RGV westward each day Friday through Sunday with Sunday being the driest overall. However, winds in general won't be strong enough to trigger a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. Low level moisture will slosh over the eastern plains thanks to a front bringing cooler temperatures along with a few wetting showers and storms tonight through Saturday. Meager low level moisture may bleed into the RGV early Friday morning on a light to briefly moderate east wind and should mix out later in the day, but can't totally rule out a cloud buildup or dry shower Friday afternoon over the north central if the low level moisture pushes a bit farther west and more strongly than models suggest will happen. A strong upper ridge of high pressure will build over western and into central New Mexico next week. Warmer than normal and very dry conditions with poor overnight humidity recoveries will continue to plague western and central areas. A front may bring showers and storms to the east next Tuesday, any moisture which bleeds into the Rio Grande Valley will result in mostly dry activity. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 401 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 NMZ201>241-191100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 401 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Smoke from wildfires over Arizona and southwest New Mexico will produce decreased visibility and health risks across much of the area west of the central mountain chain this morning and again tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Friday afternoon and early evening, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in counties along New Mexico's eastern border, where large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats. Friday evening into Saturday morning, and potentially again Saturday night, smoke will blow into the state from the west with the main impact expected over central and western areas. Tuesday and Wednesday, the potential exists for severe thunderstorms east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required across northeast and east central areas during the afternoon and evening Friday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. 44
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
723 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
NMZ230-231-190200-
Harding County-Union County-
723 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HARDING AND SOUTHERN
UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...
At 723 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Bueyeros, or 21 miles southwest of Amistad, moving
north at 15 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rosebud.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 10334 3574 10338 3568 10338 3565 10340
3571 10362 3601 10361 3593 10321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 182DEG 15KT 3579 10351
24The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 141 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:44 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail up to the size of nickels fell a few miles northwest of Rosebud. The combination of hail and strong winds was enough to damage several window screens at a residence. Damage amounts are a rough estimate for two windows.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 888920.