A very dry spring and early summer lead to severe drought conditions developing over parts of Hidalgo, Grant and Luna counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A very dry spring and early summer lead to severe drought conditions developing over parts of Hidalgo, Grant and Luna counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 10:50 AM MST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 ...Updated for the 18Z TAF Cycle... .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE... Mostly VFR conditions expected across the area. MVFR to IFR conditions possible over area mountains this afternoon and early evening, especially for the Gila Region. Some of this activity may make it near KTCS, thus the VCTS is mentioned for this site. However, the chances are low for the other sites to mention at the moment. Will amend if necessary. Otherwise, winds should be light and variable, except near thunderstorms where gusts to 35 kts are possible. && 29-Crespo .PREV DISCUSSION...227 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will bring seasonally hot mostly dry weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas today through Friday with a few showers and thunderstorms occurring mainly around mountain location. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread next weekend as moisture flows back into the region. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today (Tuesday) and Tonight... The presence of mid- level dry air and high pressure aloft will continue to keep our rain chances at bay across the Borderland, at least compared to this past weekend. Latest WV satellite imagery (2AM) shows broad high pressure covering NM/AZ with a narrow but weak moisture tap hugging the AZ/NM state line then turning east across the Gila and towards Central NM then with better moisture over OK and TX. The 00z EPZ sounding had a PWAT value of 1.00" with a noticeable cap around 600mb and very little CAPE. With little change expected in conditions for this afternoon, thunderstorms will mainly favor the mountains, especially the Gila, though with dewpoints mainly AOA 50, a few storms may still make into the lowlands with better chances across Sierra County where better mid- level moisture remains. For areas along and south of I-10 and US-70 (in the lowlands), I left POPs below 10 percent and thus weather out of the grids, which may bite me given dewpoints near or above 50 and highs in the mid-90s (given what I learned at my time at WSMR-- shout out to them--it is a bit of a gamble this time of year to leave conditions dry, especially for areas immediately adjacent to mountains), but I believe the vast majority of people in this area will stay dry like yesterday. Once the sun sets, any thunderstorms should quickly dissipate. Highs today are expected to be a couple to few degrees warmer than Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. && 34-Brown .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday... Strong upper ridge will be aligned on a west to east axis from upper height center over Arizona across central New Mexico on Wednesday. Associated cyclonic circulation will include a mid level northeast flow into the CWA with transport warm dry continental air aloft. As a result air mass will be relatively dry and stable Wednesday and Thursday with precipitable water mostly below an inch and CAPE's generally less than 500 J/kg. Given the large scale subsidence aloft this will also bring mostly dry weather along with hot above normal temperatures. By Late Thursday ridge axis will develop a high amplitude north to south axis through the Great basin while upper trough move into the plains. This pattern change will support a weak colds front pushing east to west across New Mexico and west Texas Thursday night and Friday morning. At low levels western U.S. thermal/heat low will combine with surface high to the east to induce east to southeast flow with some increase in moisture occurring. Thus on Friday precipitable water rises above an inch causing air mas to become weakly unstable with a few thunderstorms expected mainly around higher terrain. Trend continues through the weekend as air mass becomes more unstable with CAPE's around 500 to 1000 J/kg while precipitable water ranges from 1 to 1.3 inches most areas. This scenario will result in generally isolated storms coverage lowlands with scattered activity mountains Saturday through Monday. Mid level winds near 30 kt from the north and northeast may also provide favorable shear for several storms to become near severe Saturday through Monday. Behind the frontal passage temperatures should also gradually cool to around normal by early next week. && 05-Rogash .FIRE WEATHER... A warming and drying trend is expected for the period, but with no significant issues expected for today. Thunderstorms will be mainly confined to mountain areas though a few storms may develop into the lowlands, mainly across Sierra County and northern Dona Ana County (northern half of NM Zone 112). Surface moisture will be sufficient to keep min RH values above critical levels for all locations, and winds are expected to remain light except in thunderstorm outflows. The light winds will keep vent rates in the poor to fair category. Moisture will decrease for Wednesday with thunderstorm chances decreasing and min RH values nearing critical levels for the lowlands. This decrease in moisture will continue for Thursday, but a backdoor front will restore moisture for Friday and increase thunderstorm chances. && 34-Brown && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 94 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 97 72 100 72 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 72 54 76 54 / 40 20 30 0 Truth or Consequences 94 69 98 70 / 20 10 0 0 Silver City 88 65 91 66 / 30 20 0 0 Deming 95 69 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 93 69 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 99 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 98 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 98 73 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 91 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 97 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 96 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 95 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 95 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 95 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 95 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 96 73 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 83 59 87 59 / 40 30 20 0 Mescalero 82 57 86 58 / 30 20 10 0 Timberon 81 56 85 57 / 30 20 20 0 Winston 86 57 90 59 / 60 30 0 0 Hillsboro 94 66 98 67 / 40 20 0 0 Spaceport 94 68 98 68 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 88 58 91 59 / 50 30 0 0 Hurley 90 64 94 65 / 20 10 0 0 Cliff 94 61 97 61 / 20 10 0 0 Mule Creek 90 65 94 65 / 20 10 0 0 Faywood 91 65 95 66 / 30 20 0 0 Animas 95 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 93 66 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 93 68 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 89 66 90 66 / 0 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 34-Brown/05-Rogash/29-Crespo
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1141 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 NMZ404>413-417-TXZ418>424-291745- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1141 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However, a few showers and thunderstorms could be possible this afternoon and early evening in the lowlands close to area mountains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures ranging from 95 to 105 degrees. Isolated showers and thunderstorms look to return by next weekend, with a few storms producing small hail and gusty outflow winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NMZ401>403-414>416-291745- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- 1141 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico and southwest New Mexico. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today. Storm coverage will be less than previous days. Localized flooding the primary threat, especially for areas that have already received heavy rainfall this week. Running water from thunderstorm outflow may also impacts local drainages, arroyos, and low water crossings. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However, mostly dry weather with no hazards are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again over the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Crespo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The far southwest portion of the zone was placed into Severe(D2) drought on July 28th.
The southwest portion of the zone was placed into Severe(D2) drought on July 28th.
The entire zone was placed into Severe(D2) drought on July 28th. The Red Rock cooperative observer recorded 0.77 inches of precipitation in July which was 1.73 inches below normal.
The northwest portion of the zone was placed into Severe(D2) drought on July 28th. The Deming airport reported only 0.02 inches of rain in July which was 2.27 inches below normal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 908087, 908088, 908090, 908092.