A weak disturbance in northerly flow aloft combined with a dry low level atmosphere to produce a couple of severe wind reports in southern New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A weak disturbance in northerly flow aloft combined with a dry low level atmosphere to produce a couple of severe wind reports in southern New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 4:37 PM MST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 537 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...Update for 00Z TAF Cycle... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Temporary IFR conditions possible within TSRA through 06Z, then VFR conditions prevailing through rest of period. VCTS all terminals over the next few hours, with highest confidence at KDMN. Skies generally SCT100CB BKN200. TSRA may reduce VIS to less than 3SM along with VRB25G35KT winds. Skies BKN120-150 clearing to FEW-SCT150 by 09Z. Winds 300-360 AOB 08KT veering to 100-150 AOB 06KT by 18Z. Another round of convection expected tomorrow evening, with VCTS inclusion possible next TAF round. && .PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms linger into the overnight hours with some strong wind gusts possible. Scattered storms develop again on Sunday, with the most robust activity across the Sacramento mountains. Next Wednesday may feature an uptick in coverage across southwest New Mexico but overall scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms will be likely through much of next week. Isolated heavy rain and a few strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Additionally, temperatures range from the upper 90s to low 100s outside of the Gila and Sacramento mountains. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... Very similar pattern to yesterday under northerly flow, except better shear west. Should see more widespread storm activity into the evening. CAPE values late this afternoon and evening 500- 1000J/kg with 0-6km shear around 20-30kts. A couple upper disturbances will aid in storm development over the higher terrain and storms are expected to move onto the lowlands, possibly in a broken bow segment which is indicated by several CAMs models. Think wind will be the main threat, similar to yesterday, especially in the evening hours and some marginally severe hail as well. Not much change for Sunday either, maybe a little less shear and a little less instability. Storms again expected to form over the higher terrain and move south onto the lowlands. Went with high chance to low likely pops in the mountains and down to slight chance near Mexico border as storms will likely remain north of this area until after 00Z. Marginal risk looks good over eastern portions of the area. MOS guidance has been running low lately, and tomorrow looks no different, especially for the lowlands. Generally went mid to upper 90s which is 2 to 4 degrees above guidance. && .LONG TERM... After scattered showers and storms Sunday night, a few possibly on the stronger side, a general lackluster pattern, in terms of healthy rain chances, looks to continue through much of the work week. High pressure aloft will reside just west, to northwest of the region Monday afternoon, and right overhead on Tuesday. As a result, temperatures climb and flow aloft weakens waning our severe weather threat outside of an isolated strong downburst/outflow. Storm chances take a tumble as well in response to warmer temperatures aloft and dewpoints only in the 40s. Expecting mainly mountain storms both days, especially Tuesday, but a few very isolated storms across the lowlands will be possible as well. Temperatures rise to near or slightly exceeding 100 degrees. Ridge slides just to the east Wednesday, but the pattern remains similar. Sfc flow continues out of the west with PW ~1.00", and so iso to sct over mtns and only iso lowland storms. However, 06/12Z GFS, and even 00Z EURO, starting to pick up on a little disturbance (ENERGY) aloft Wednesday night which could clip SW NM and enhance/increase storm chances for the Bootheel, and perhaps adjacent eastern locations via outflow. Consequently, have higher POPs out west and a slight/chance out east into the overnight. That piece of energy Wed night will slide north on Thursday, likely impacting N of here more so than our neck of the woods, although perhaps the far northern areas of our CWA will feel slight benefits in storm coverage. Regardless, Thursday and Friday will favor area mountains and SW NM, with more in the way of iso storm chances across the lowlands. Of course the day to day mesoscale features will play a role, but moisture remains low for this time of year with no real lifting mechanisms besides sfc heating/mtns and subsequent outflows. Progressing into the weekend, the EURO suggests hot and mainly dry weather thanks to the upper high settling overhead whilst the GFS continues with some storm chances as the high remains east. EPS and GEFS (PWAT anomalies on even the GEFS very low for this/that time of year) seem more in line with EURO so will side with this scenario into the weekend, as Sad But True as it may very well be. && .FIRE WEATHER... This afternoon and evening look like the best chance for widespread precipitation for the upcoming week, with Sunday just a little less coverage. Storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail as they form over the higher elevations and move south onto the lowlands. Going into the early part of next week, upper high will be overhead and most storm activity will be confined to the mountains. The ridge will push east of the area by midweek and start a moisture return to western zones. Temperatures the early part of the week will be around 100 degrees for the lowlands again with relative humidities falling into the teens for most lowlands areas with a gradual increase toward the end of the week. Besides near thunderstorms, winds will be less than 15 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 97 72 100 / 40 30 30 10 Sierra Blanca 71 92 67 93 / 40 30 30 10 Las Cruces 66 95 68 98 / 50 30 30 10 Alamogordo 64 97 68 97 / 50 40 40 10 Cloudcroft 49 73 51 74 / 60 50 50 30 Truth or Consequences 67 96 69 97 / 40 40 30 20 Silver City 64 90 64 91 / 50 60 30 20 Deming 66 97 64 99 / 50 30 30 10 Lordsburg 67 96 68 97 / 50 30 20 10 West El Paso Metro 71 98 73 101 / 50 20 30 10 Dell City 70 97 69 99 / 40 30 30 10 Fort Hancock 70 99 72 100 / 40 30 30 10 Loma Linda 68 91 69 93 / 50 30 30 10 Fabens 70 97 74 98 / 30 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 69 97 70 98 / 50 30 30 10 White Sands HQ 70 96 72 98 / 50 30 30 10 Jornada Range 64 96 69 97 / 50 30 40 10 Hatch 68 97 69 99 / 50 30 40 10 Columbus 69 97 71 99 / 50 30 30 10 Orogrande 68 96 70 97 / 50 40 40 10 Mayhill 55 84 56 85 / 60 50 50 30 Mescalero 54 83 55 85 / 60 50 50 30 Timberon 51 81 54 83 / 60 40 40 30 Winston 57 89 57 91 / 40 60 30 30 Hillsboro 63 95 64 97 / 50 50 30 20 Spaceport 64 95 67 97 / 50 30 40 10 Lake Roberts 55 89 57 91 / 40 60 30 30 Hurley 62 93 63 92 / 50 50 30 20 Cliff 63 96 60 96 / 40 50 30 20 Mule Creek 59 93 65 93 / 40 50 30 20 Faywood 61 93 64 94 / 50 40 30 20 Animas 67 97 67 98 / 50 30 30 10 Hachita 68 96 66 97 / 50 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 66 95 66 96 / 60 40 30 20 Cloverdale 64 91 64 91 / 60 30 30 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 26/35/30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1112 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-021730- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1112 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire region this afternoon and evening. Storms will start to develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon and spread southward into the evening hours. The main threat from these storms will be gusty winds over 50 mph and hail of an inch in diameter or bigger. Storms will start to move out of the area by midnight with just some showers lingering overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Sunday will be similar to today with storms again developing over the higher terrain and some storms, especially east becoming marginally severe with strong winds and hail. Storm coverage will be on the decrease starting Monday and through much of the week with a daily chance for isolated storms in the mountains and some gusty winds possibly moving onto the lowlands with a couple storms. High temperatures over the lowlands will start to approach 100 degrees again starting Monday and could continue through much of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, but spotters are encouraged to report any observed significant weather. 26
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 NMZ417-TXZ419>423-012030- Otero Mesa NM-Eastern/Central El Paso County TX- Southern Hudspeth Highlands TX- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties TX- Salt Basin TX-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains TX- 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OTERO... NORTHWESTERN HUDSPETH AND EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT... At 142 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a pair of strong thunderstorm over northwest Hudspeth county. One was heading south towards Cornudas and highway 62 / 180. The western storm was over Loma Linda and Desert Haven areas. These storms were moving south to southwest about 20 mph. . Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Loma Linda, Desert Haven, Cornudas, Indian Cliffs Ranch, Lake Way Estates, Sunset Ranches, Hueco Mountain Wind Ranch, Colonia del Paso, Dairyland and Cornudas Mountains. This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 46 and 54. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3200 10599 3201 10530 3126 10531 3151 10619 TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 013DEG 54KT 3177 10577 BIRD
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 258 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 TXZ420>423-012145- Southern Hudspeth Highlands TX- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties TX- Salt Basin TX-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains TX- 258 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HUDSPETH COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM MDT... At 255 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of Cornudas, over rural areas of Hudspeth county, moving south at 20 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Finlay and Round Top Mountain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3159 10574 3160 10553 3127 10542 3126 10574 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 357DEG 20KT 3166 10564 TAB
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 510 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 NMZ412>417-020015- Southern Tularosa Basin NM-Central Tularosa Basin NM-Otero Mesa NM- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM- 510 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM MDT... At 507 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong thunderstorms, lined up from north to south from Mescalero, through Cloudcroft, to Sunspot. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Timberon, Mescalero, Cloudcroft, Alamogordo, Sunspot, Tularosa, White Sands National Monument, Bent, Burro Flats, High Rolls, La Luz, Holloman Air Force Base, Mountain Park, Apache Summit, Benson Ridge, Boles Acres, Karr Canyon, Dry Canyon, Cox Canyon and Oliver Lee State Park. This includes the following highways... Highway 70 in New Mexico between mile markers 198 and 212. Highway 54 in New Mexico between mile markers 52 and 78. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. These storm may intensify, and may also produce heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3330 10586 3321 10566 3256 10566 3276 10622 TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 022DEG 15KT 3310 10581 BIRD
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 172 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:27 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
New Mexico DOT site located west of Lordsburg. Some blowing dust was also reported in the vicinity.
Storm moved south across the White Sands Missile Range.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 915586, 915587.