Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 6 to 7, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

A frontal passage and weak mid-level shortwave will help to trigger
some scattered thunderstorms across portions of northern Nebraska.
For the most part, the best instability (CAPE over 2000 J/kg and the
steepest lapse rates) will be just north of the the Nebraska border
in southern South Dakota. Enough uncertainty exists in thunderstorm
placement , though, that a few stronger or isolated severe storms
could drift south and impact north central Nebraska. The main
threats with these storms will be large hail, brief gusty winds, and
brief heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate across
South Dakota by late afternoon and finally impact our area after 7pm
CDT. Thunderstorms will gradually diminish over the overnight as
they encounter a more stable airmass.

Dry weather returns Tuesday morning before another round of
thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon through the
evening. These storms will be triggered by a surface trough and will
impact mainly the eastern Panhandle and into portions of southwest
Nebraska. Instability will be limited and confidence in mature
thunderstorm development is low. Main concern with these storms will
be strong wind gusts as storms quickly develop and dissipate before
large hail can develop. Timing for thunderstorms will mainly be
after 00Z and end by 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

A better chance of thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon and
into the evening as a cold front gets dragged across the northern
Plains. Current guidance shows severe thunderstorms will impact much
of the forecast area. Best times for thunderstorms will be between
1pm CDT and midnight CDT. Heavy rainfall and large hail is expected
out of these storms initially. Strong winds will become more of a
threat as the event evolves and thunderstorms move eastward. While
this event looks very probable, there is still some uncertainty in
the timing and location of strongest storms. This will be ironed out
over the next couple forecasts.

There is another chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms on
Thursday and Saturday, there is still plenty of uncertainty to
warrant much more than low chance pops (30%) in the forecast at this
time. Drier weather returns for Sunday as high pressure builds back
into the area.

Plenty of warm air advection into the region will keep surface
temperatures in the 90s through the end of next week. The warmest
temperatures will be across western and southwest Nebraska (mid 90s
to low 100s) where the strongest warm air surge is expected.
Elsewhere, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will still be close to reaching heat advisory criteria especially on
Wednesday and Saturday. Will need to monitor this closely over the
next couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across
northern nebraska this evening and overnight affecting areas
north of highway 2 until about 08z. The fate of the thunderstorm
activity across the panhandle is uncertain at this time but
likely would dissipate this evening (04z). Otherwise, VFR is
expected across western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 /209 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of the
Panhandle, Sandhills, and north central Nebraska. The greatest
chances of severe storms will be north of Highway 20. The main
hazards of these storms will be large hail, strong winds, and
brief downpours that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Additional thunderstorm chances exist Tuesday evening in western
Nebraska, mainly along and west of Highway 83, and Wednesday
evening for the Sandhills and eastward. A few storms each evening
may be severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
concerns. Storm chances will continue into Thursday and Friday, at
this time severe weather chances remain uncertain.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Tuesday,
with the combination of hot temperatures and low relative
humidity expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Meltzer/Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

NEZ005-094-070015-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
622 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

At 622 PM CDT/522 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles west of Cody, or 22 miles southeast of Martin,
moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Kilgore, Nenzel, Cody Lake and Eli.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 147 and 176.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4274 10100 4289 10151 4300 10147 4300 10091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 285DEG 19KT 4297 10138

CDC