Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 20, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
342 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

An upper trough in the northern stream will push a disturbance
through the area tonight. A weak cold front, and likely outflow
boundaries from thunderstorms will also move through. Scattered storms
in southern South Dakota will likely develop into organized
clusters of storms in north central Nebraska this evening and move
southeast. Deep layer shear is sufficient at 25 to 35KT with
instability near 3000 J/KG. The area is covered in a slight risk
for severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds possible.
Locally heavy rainfall also, with PWAT amounts near 1.5 inches.

Tuesday looks to be dry through much of the day in the wake of the
system tonight. Moisture will remain plentiful as PWATs still
1-1.5 inches. Slightly warmer in the mid 80s, with upper 80s far
southwest.

Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday night as the surface
front stalls in far northern Kansas. The best chances will be
north of this front across southwest and central Nebraska
overnight. A few strong storms possible along with locally heavy
rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For Wednesday and beyond, an upper ridge will build into the
region, and with that, hot temperatures into the mid 90s with
humid conditions Thursday through Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will
rotate across the region. Warmer temperatures aloft should
suppress thunderstorm development to some degree, with mainly
isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Visual flight rules expected through 19Z with few clouds clipping
across the north central with the potential for some virga as
cloud bases at 10kft or higher. Beyond 19Z the next round of
convection will enter the north and drop southeast overnight.
Short-term models suggest boundary will move south of the South
Dakota border about 23Z then exit the southwest and north central
after 09Z. Southerly winds turn north as the boundary pushes
through. Little convection expected into the eastern Panhandle
through the period. As the convection rolls through clouds will
lower with the potential of Marginal VFR conditions across the
southwest from 07z and lifting by 15Z to VFR across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Keck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 /238 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms expected tonight, some of which may be
severe. Storms will be triggered by a cold front moving through
the area from the north. The main hazards will be large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Localized minor flooding is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday due to a
series of disturbances impacting the region. There is a risk for
a few strong or severe thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly across
southwestern Nebraska. Later outlooks will evaluate the threat for
severe storms the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay any severe weather reports to
the National Weather Service in North Platte.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Meltzer/Taylor

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1207 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE MULLEN             41.97N 100.95W
07/20/2020  E60 MPH          HOOKER             NE   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES, GREATER THAN 1 INCH, DOWN. HEAVY RAIN OF
            1.4 INCHES.

&&

RLAMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
247 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

NEZ057-059-202030-
Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
247 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KEITH AND
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT/230 PM MDT/...

At 247 PM CDT/147 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Sarben, or 17 miles northeast of
Ogallala, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paxton, Sarben, Big Bald Hill, Nevens and Broganville.

LAT...LON 4111 10144 4129 10159 4139 10140 4121 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 232DEG 8KT 4123 10142

Roberg