Flooding in Montana, March 1 to 11, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
828 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Evening Update: Some high clouds are moving into the area and
winds have become lighter across much of the Northeastern
Montana. Very little to no changes to the forecast.

Rux

Afternoon Update: Winds continue to be closely monitored for the
afternoon shift today, and were adjusted to keep up with recent
trends and high resolution model output. Also added a little bit
more QPF to the forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, but
nothing of much significance. Otherwise just the typical refresh
with daytime runs of the models were performed for the afternoon
forecast.

Bigelbach

Previous discussion...
The well-advertised cold front is moving its way through the area
right now. Near it, gusty winds and some light snow is
accompanying the front. Here at the office, we've gusted to 49 mph
(at 857z) with other stations in the CWA (KJDN, KQPW, KQFP)
gusting into the 30s and 40s mph. The snow will be short-lived
today, lingering a bit longer in and on the upslope side of the
Big Sheep Mountains in our southeast. The cold will also be
short-lived, with today being the one day in the ballpark of
seasonal averages before temperatures go up the rest of the week
and into next weekend.

In addition to warmer than normal temperatures, the winds are also
going to be up for much of the week, especially around midweek.
A slight chance of precipitation is possible tomorrow, Tuesday,
and Wednesday as various upper level disturbances move through the
(mostly) northwest flow aloft to the east of a building ridge. The
axis of the ridge should be nearby or overhead in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe, which corresponds with the warmest
temperatures in the forecast. As the upper level pattern shifts a
bit Saturday into Sunday, precipitation chances go up once again.
The details are still to be determined as far as placement of
features, with operational models not on the same page as far as
where and when things will be near us.

Also of note this week, particularly around Wednesday, is the
potential for fire weather concerns. There are still a lot of
questions regarding the details, including how dry it actually is
on the ground, but humidity and wind speed values seem to want to
get close to "interesting" values midweek. Needless to say, it's
something to watch.

Avery

&&

.AVIATION...

Evening Aviation Update:

LLWS: Widespread LLWS is expected after 06Z and
should end by 16Z.

Expected Flight Category: VFR

Synopsis: High pressure remains over the region, with periods of
clouds and clear skies through the next several days. Currently,
clouds are clearing out of MVFR for SDY & GDV to VFR and is
expected to continue through tonight.

Winds: Winds at 15 - 25 kts winds out of the WNW and is expected
to slightly decrease overnight at the surface. Thus, low level
wind shear may be a flight challenge into tomorrow. Tomorrow,
westerly winds at the surface is expected to increase with some
higher gusts.

Bigelbach/Rux

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow