Hail in Montana, June 7, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
254 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday night...

Early this afternoon have started to see some thunderstorm
development in the western zones. There have been some winds with
these thunderstorms, but nothing of concern at the moment. The
HRRR has not been as aggressive with the 80m winds as it had been
on previous runs. However, still expecting strong winds to be the
main threat. There could also be some hail, have already had a
report of some pea-sized hail in the Beartooth Foothills. These
storms should quickly move off through the evening.

Overnight and through Monday night, still expecting the mountains
to see some accumulating snowfall. Generally this will be above
6000 feet with the highest accumulations of over 6 inches above
8000 feet. This will still impact the Beartooth Pass. The rest of
the area will see showers become scattered through the day.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the whole area. Reimer

Tuesday through Sunday...

Weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft should have enough forcing
for light mainly diurnal showers on Tuesday, especially in the
east where coldest air aloft will be in the afternoon, though
otherwise we will see drying on this day with precipitable waters
falling under a half inch. W-NW winds will be well-mixed and
breezy. Look for temps in the 60s.

Building ridge from the west will bring a warmer and mostly dry
day on Wednesday, but there may yet be enough energy for a few
showers over the mountains/foothills. W-NW winds will again be
breezy.

Expect amplified ridge to bring warmer conditions Thursday through
Saturday, with temps returning to the 80s if not lower 90s by the
end of the week. As the ridge axis shifts east, southwest flow
aloft and increasing high plains moisture will open the door to
thunderstorm potential by the weekend. A deeper trof is possible
by next Sunday or Monday, but plenty of model uncertainty this far
in advance.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail in general, however scattered showers
and thunderstorms may produce MVFR to IFR conditions this
afternoon into tonight. Mountain obscurations continue through the
overnight. A stronger thunderstorm could produce winds up to 55
knots this afternoon. More showers will move in from the west
after 12Z and become more scattered through the day. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/060 044/067 049/072 049/080 054/086 058/085 057/079
    87/W    32/W    01/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    23/T
LVM 041/055 036/064 045/070 044/079 049/084 053/082 051/073
    79/T    40/N    12/T    00/U    01/B    12/T    34/T
HDN 046/062 044/067 047/072 047/080 052/089 058/088 058/082
    95/W    32/W    01/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T
MLS 050/063 046/065 047/070 048/078 052/085 060/085 059/082
    94/W    32/W    00/N    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
4BQ 048/066 045/064 045/070 047/078 050/086 058/088 057/082
    83/W    32/W    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T
BHK 049/066 044/064 044/069 046/076 048/081 055/082 055/078
    62/W    22/W    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/N    22/T
SHR 043/064 041/064 042/071 044/078 049/087 056/088 055/081
    74/T    42/W    01/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to
      noon MDT Monday for the Beartooth Highway FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
403 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MTZ029>034-036-037-040-042-056>058-063>068-138-139-141-169>173-228-
235-WYZ198-199-081015-
Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-Fallon-
Northern Stillwater-Powder River-Carter-Northern Park-
Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-Northern Big Horn-
Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-Livingston Area-
Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-Crazy Mountains-
Southern Big Horn-Southeastern Carbon-Northern Sweet Grass-
Bighorn Canyon-Northern Carbon-Pryor/Northern Bighorn Mountains-
Melville Foothills-Northeastern Yellowstone-Southern Wheatland-
Southwestern Yellowstone-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-
Sheridan Foothills-
403 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...Slight risk for Severe Thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Mainly east of Billings.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Showers will become more numerous this
  afternoon with scattered thunderstorms mixed in. The main threat
  with thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, though
  hail up to the size of quarters is possible with the strongest
  storms.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...Snow levels will drop to around 6000
  feet Sunday night into Monday. 4 to 8 inches of snow accumulation
  is possible above 7000 feet. Outdoor recreation in the mountains,
  and travel on the Beartooth highway will be impacted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is issued when hazardous weather could
impact the region within the next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
future updates as locations, timing, and impacts could change.
Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts that could result from
the hazardous weather.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
233 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MTZ034-170-235-072115-
Northern Carbon MT-Southwestern Yellowstone MT-
Northern Stillwater MT-
233 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 232 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm near
Laurel, or 10 miles southwest of Billings, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this
storm with occasional lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Billings, Laurel, Lockwood, Billings Heights, Billings West End,
Huntley, Acton, Park City, Molt, Comanche and Silesia.

LAT...LON 4548 10868 4568 10911 4609 10871 4586 10822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 211DEG 19KT 4567 10868

Carrothers

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             4 SE NYE                45.39N 109.72W
06/07/2020  E0.25 INCH       STILLWATER         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ARTHUR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             7 SSW BILLINGS          45.70N 108.58W
06/07/2020  E0.50 INCH       YELLOWSTONE        MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO HALF INCH SIZED HAIL

0304 PM     HAIL             4 SW BILLINGS           45.75N 108.57W
06/07/2020  E0.50 INCH       YELLOWSTONE        MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN.

&&

ARTHUR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
311 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MTZ057-173-235-072200-
Southwestern Yellowstone MT-Northern Big Horn MT-
Northeastern Yellowstone MT-
311 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 310 PM MDT, thunderstorms along a line extending from Billings
Heights to 15 miles southeast of Lockwood. Movement was northeast at
30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these
storms with occasional lightning. Heavy rain is also occuring with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Billings, Lockwood, Shepherd, Huntley, Billings Heights, Worden,
Billings West End, Ballantine and Pompeys Pillar.

LAT...LON 4625 10827 4588 10752 4551 10827 4578 10867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 211DEG 24KT 4582 10852 4564 10822

Carrothers