Wildfire in Montana, August 7 to 14, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
543 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and breezy conditions will continue through the weekend with
high temperatures on Saturday climbing back to near seasonal
averages. Another weak cool front lowers temperatures once again
on Sunday but a warming trend back into the mid and upper 80s will
prevail Monday through Wednesday. Isolated to possibly scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to return by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Very good model agreement in the short term period with an upper
level trough expected to linger over Alberta/Saskatchewan through
the weekend. Despite this feature, am expecting the vast majority
of the forecast area to remain dry through the weekend. However, I
can not rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm over the higher
peaks of the Rocky Mountains Saturday afternoon and evening. A
slight rebound in high temperatures is anticipated on Saturday
before another dry cool front pushes through the region Saturday
night into Sunday. mpj

As we head into early next week, upper level flow will turn more
zonal, which will result in a relatively quiet start to the week.
Temperatures will be near climatological norms, and precipitation
chances will remain nearly nonexistent through the first half of
the week. Rain chances return on Wednesday as an upper level
trough begins to push into British Columbia. Uncertainty increases
quickly at this point, as models are having a difficult time
coming to an agreement with what happens next. However, ensemble
guidance seems to point to this system lingering through the end
of the week, which would lead to a cooler and possibly wetter end
to the week.

Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 543 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 (00Z TAF Period)

Widespread VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. However,
there will be an increase in mid- an high level cloudiness during
the day on Saturday, especially over the north-central terminals.
Gusty westerly winds are expected to diminish by 3Z and increase
again after 16Z, though magnitudes should not be quite as strong.
The westerly winds aloft will cause mountain wave activity in the
lee of the Rockies with moderate turbulence through this evening and
to a lesser degree on Saturday. RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire fire weather
forecast area through 9 PM MDT this evening due to low humidity
and gusty winds. On Saturday, expect low humidity once again, but
overall wind speeds are forecast to be a bit lower than today,
thus no fire highlights are anticipated at this time. Cooler
temperatures are on tap for Sunday, but warm/hot afternoon
temperatures and low relative humidity will prevail the first half
of next week. Brusda/mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  81  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  75  46  73 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  47  83  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  85  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  39  80  39  78 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  44  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  83  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  47  82  49  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Central and Eastern
Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and Fergus
Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern
Pondera/Liberty...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the
Helena National Forest...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and
Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain
Front...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls