Tornadoes and Hail in Minnesota, August 7, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Showers and thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of an MCV
moving ENE across the area this afternoon. South and east of this
feature looks to be the best area for severe storms over the next
few hours with ML CAPE at 1500-2500 J/kg and deep shear of 25-40
kts. Area of clearing southwest of MCV in area of outflow could
be the best area for redevelopment as indicated by latest HRRR
run. Severe storm threats will be mainly winds to 75 mph and 2"
hail, but also a tornado or two will be possible. Any storms that
develop have the potential to grow upscale to a line of storms in
the eastern forecast area before exiting across east-central MN.

A cold front will be pushing east across ND later tonight. Some
storms could be severe with this potential line of storms...with
the best chance along the Canadian border. Decreased chances
somewhat with this features as CAMs have trended more towards
storm that are isolated in nature. The cold front will usher in
drier air for Saturday.

Another system is expected to push east across SD and
northeastward into eastern ND and MN by late Saturday night.
Chances are mainly for the southern half of the forecast area
after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

The main chance for impactful weather is found at the beginning of
the period on Sun, followed by another chance around Thu.

During Sun an approaching surface front and upper wave will increase
chances for strong to severe convection. Current timing places this
front in the vicinity of Devils Lake by noon, progressing to the
valley by mid afternoon, then west central MN by early evening.
CAPE and shear is available and it would appear the strongest
storms would likely be proximal to the frontal position at peak heating
time. Bulk shear at 0-6km coincident with the boundary should be in
the 30 to 50 kt range, along with SB CAPES between 2 and 4K. The Red
River Valley could be the main target region, with storms moving to
northwest and west central late afternoon and early evening.

High pressure is on schedule to provide quieter weather on Mon
through Wed, with the next chance for stronger convection presenting
on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

The thunderstorm threat will continue for the southern Red River
Valley and east into MN through the afternoon hours. Expecting
storms to strengthen east and south of the cluster of storms
moving through the FAR area currently...and continue into the
early evening hours. Other isolated storms will be possible as
well, but the highest continued threat will be with the FAR
storms. Cigs have been slowly increasing and expect VFR conditions
at all terminals by late afternoon outside of TS affected areas.
Storms will be again possible late tonight, mainly along the
Canadian border.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Knutsvig

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
816 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081330-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
816 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to be possible this
afternoon, mainly across eastern North Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts to 75 mph, and even
tornadoes will be possible. Activity will be more isolated in
northwestern Minnesota. Another round of thunderstorms will also
be possible later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic thunderstorms will be possible Saturday morning and again
Sunday. Storms could be strong to severe on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

CJ