Damaging Wind in Missouri, September 12, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
632 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

KPAH got up to 89 degrees by midday which was the hottest site
around, and the cluster of storms that moved through just after
18Z was by far the strongest cluster of the day. However, even it
did not have that much lightning with it. The cirrus canopy covers
much of the region and the activity has weakened as it moved
northeast toward the EVV Tri State. This cluster will reach the
Tri State in the next couple of hours, but may only give a
glancing blow to the city of Evansville. Owensboro will likely get
a decent period of thunder with it. This convection has produced
copious rainfall, so with even rather brief downpours, drainage
systems may briefly become overwhelmed.

There still is some sunshine over much of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, so we should see scattered showers and
thunderstorms intensify a bit as they spread/develop over those
areas through sunset. At least maybe there will be a bit more
thunder. Will have to watch for localized heavy rainfall with some
potential for training and possibly some near severe wind gusts
out of the strongest cells per the latest SPC outlook. All of the
convection should weaken by sunset, leaving mostly scattered
showers through the evening.

The main cold front is still back across Kansas at this time, and
will come through our region overnight and early Sunday morning.
Scattered showers will continue along whatever boundaries remain
over the area ahead of the front tonight. As the front arrives,
and the upper system approaches, there may be an uptick in
convection over the southern Pennyrile in the pre-dawn hours and
into early Sunday morning. The front should clear the Pennyrile by
15Z, and the convective potential will dwindle to nothing by
afternoon.

Sunday night the latest tropical system will approach the northern
Gulf Coast due south of our region, and that will allow stronger
northeasterly flow to develop over our region, as the front to our
south effectively washes out. This will finally bring in much
cooler and drier air to the entire region. Low temperatures over
southern Illinois and southeast Missouri should drop well into the
50s by sunrise Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The long term begins with northwesterly flow aloft with a ridge to
the west and a retreating trough to the northeast. Surface high
pressure will be centered near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
bringing northeasterly flow to the Quad State region along with dry
and relatively cool conditions. Highs Monday will be in the lower
half of the 80s.

The main weather feature of concern will be a tropical system
expected to be a higher end tropical storm or low end hurricane as
it reaches the Gulf Coast between SE Louisiana and the Florida
Panhandle early in the week. This storm is expected to significantly
slow down near the coast. The outermost precip bands could bring
showers and a storm or two to the area Wednesday.

Models point to a surface low near the Great Lakes Wednesday that
moves towards Quebec for Thursday. A trailing cold front associated
with this low is projected to cross the Quad State on Thursday and
will help steer the tropical system northeastward. Shower and storm
chances Thursday are from the Gulf storm and the frontal passage. At
this time, it appears that rainfall is most likely to be on the
order of an inch, though if the storm track were to shift
northwestward, more significant rainfall totals will be possible,
particularly in Western Kentucky. After some slight chance remnant
showers during the day Friday, conditions will clear up and begin to
dry out for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

A broken line of thunderstorms from about kmvn to kcgi at 23z will
gradually weaken as it moves east. The 00z tafs do not contain
thunder at kpah/kevv/kowb, but the line could stay intact enough to
produce mvfr conditions at those sites.

Otherwise, mainly vfr conditions will continue through 06z. There
will likely be another round of low stratus and fog late tonight.
LIFR conditions are forecast around sunrise at most sites.

A weak cold front will move southeast across the taf sites on Sunday
morning. The north winds behind the front along with solar heating
should dissipate the stratus and fog rather quickly. VFR conditions
are forecast behind the front in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
333 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
333 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the entire region
through sunset. A localized damaging wind gust cannot be
completely ruled out from Perryville Missouri to Fairfield
Illinois, but locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns across the region.

A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger across the region
tonight, mainly over southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. A brief
heavy downpour and lightning will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the southern
Pennyrile in west Kentucky Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall and
lightning will be the primary concerns.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
through Thursday night. Severe storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS/ATL