Widespread showers and thunderstorms occurred during the morning hours. A 500 mb disturbance over north central Arkansas moved northeast, initiating heavy rain just north of an outflow boundary stretching from north central Arkansas into southern Oklahoma.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms occurred during the morning hours. A 500 mb disturbance over north central Arkansas moved northeast, initiating heavy rain just north of an outflow boundary stretching from north central Arkansas into southern Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts of an inch or more occurred over very moist ground, resulting in localized stream flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 1, 5:15 AM CST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 The main concern through Thursday night is heavy rain potential. NAEFS ensemble means depict an axis of very high precipitable water values oriented from se Missouri up the Ohio Valley today through Thursday. This very persistent axis of tropical moisture will average 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above climatology over the next few days. Actual pw values will approach 2.5 inches at times. Very heavy rainfall rates over an inch in 30 minutes are possible in strong convection. As far as the timing of convection, the first round of convection has moved into the Ozarks of nw Arkansas early this morning. Nearly all the high-res guidance shows this rainfall will overspread se Missouri this morning, reaching a kpah/kmdh line by around 18z. During the afternoon, the focus may be over sw Kentucky. Both the 00z hrrrr and 00z nam paint some heavy qpf across western KY (mainly southern parts of west KY) to the tune of 1 to 3 inches after 18z. The 00z href mean instability is highest south of the Ohio River, where capes are forecast near 2000 j/kg for a time this aftn. There is also a notable increase in winds aloft this afternoon, with 0 to 3 km storm relative helicity between 100 and 200 over west KY (based on 00z href). Therefore, the severe weather potential does seem worth addressing in the hwo and social media messaging. The majority of the high-res guidance indicates a break in the organized precip this evening. However, another round of precip is forecast to emerge northeast from Arkansas overnight ahead of a 500 mb shortwave moving into the southern Plains. Instability will be very limited due to the early morning timing, so rainfall rates may be less intense. Pops will be in the likely category overnight. Wednesday and Wednesday night, the southern Plains 500 mb shortwave will gradually lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley. Given the copious moisture available ahead of this system, at least one more round of heavy rainfall is likely. The location of surface features varies in the models, and mesoscale outflow boundaries will likely play a role. Thursday and Thursday night, a strong cold front will advance southeast across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Precip potential will be limited with this front since the 500 mb shortwave will be moving east of our area by then. In addition, the axis of tropical precip water values will be shifting south and weakening. Somewhat cooler and drier air will make its initial appearance later Thurs night north of the Ohio River. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 There remains good daily consistency wrt deterministic modeling of an amplifying flow pattern in the long term...with a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS, and a deep/broad troffing action sweeping the eastern CONUS as we head into the weekend. While the ridge leads to record high temps out West, our Great Lakes/Canadian long wave trof will sweep a refreshingly cooler and less humid, Canadian sourced airmass across the PAH FA. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 70s/around 80, as dew points plunge thru the 60s and even into the 50s Friday night. This airmass basically holds for the weekend, with some modification Sunday as temps climb into the lower 80s and dew points return into/thru the 60s. That sets the stage for the next chance of pcpn to return to the forecast by Sunday night-Monday, as another cold front is driven south out of Canada by the still strong eastern CONUS long wave trof. If all holds, we'll see another nice cooloff in the post-frontal airmass as we head into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 The low stratus and fog that enveloped most of the taf sites overnight is expected to burn off quickly early this morning. Mainly vfr conditions are forecast by 16z. A large shield of rain and thunderstorms over the Ozarks will move as far east as the kmvn/kpah areas late this morning and this afternoon. Introduced mention of tsra and mvfr at taf sites in those areas today, however conditions may be briefly lower in very heavy rain. Generally better conditions are expected in the kevv/kowb areas today. Areas of showers will occur tonight, and some mvfr conditions are expected after 06z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...MY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 334 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-020845- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 334 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are likely today and tonight. Some of the storms will contain locally heavy rainfall. The heaviest rainfall is expected over southeast Missouri and southwest Kentucky, where some isolated pockets of flash flooding could occur. A few of the storms could produce strong gusty winds. Isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out, mainly in western Kentucky. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorms will remain likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, when more rounds of heavy rain are possible. Thunderstorm potential will end late in the work week as a strong cold front passes. Thunderstorms return to the forecast Sunday night and Monday, with lightning and heavy rain the main storm hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. MY/DH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
934 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0921 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W FAIRDEALING 36.67N 90.97W
09/01/2020 M0.90 INCH RIPLEY MO TRAINED SPOTTER
0.9 INCH OF RAIN IN A HALF HOUR. LOW LYING
AREAS STARTING TO FILL UP WITH WATER. ALSO,
0.62 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES UP TO
9:13 AM.
&&
DBThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management personnel submitted pictures of street flooding in Van Buren and water flowing over a low water crossing near Van Buren. A city street in Ellsinore was closed at a low water crossing bridge due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 913592.