Localized rainfall of 2 to 3 inches on July 5-6 pushed the Rock River back into minor flood stage.
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The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
Localized rainfall of 2 to 3 inches on July 5-6 pushed the Rock River back into minor flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 3:11 AM CST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 411 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Active forecast today with a series of disturbances moving through the forecast area leading to rounds of convection. As of 08Z, complex of thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota associated with warm air advection ahead of shortwave/MCV over central South Dakota. Expect this round to work east of the forecast area this morning with minimal severe weather threat. Early morning convection could kick out an outflow boundary or two, which will need to be monitored closely throughout the day as this will likely be a focusing mechanism for additional rounds of convection later in the day as short waves continue to train across the area. With ample clearing and surface heating this morning, models are suggesting 2000- 2500 J/kg of surface based CAPE by early afternoon with only a weakly capped environment. Jet dynamics are concentrated to the north across North Dakota; however, 0-6 km bulk shear increases through the day towards 30-40 knots west of I-29 by 00Z Tuesday. CAMs have suggested two schools of thought for today. The first suggests convection will continue to backbuild through the day along lingering boundary gradually working south through the day. Corfidi vectors suggest storms will be moving east at 20-25 knots, so there should be enough movement to limit heavy rain potential unless storms are able to train along the boundary. With precipitable water values 1.5-1.6 inches (~90 percent of the moving average), certainly dealing with the potential for heavy rain. However, warm cloud depths are only 7500-8000 feet thick, limiting the efficiency some. WPC has outlined the area in marginal threat for excessive rainfall which seems reasonable based on the above parameters. The second camp of CAM solutions suggests the next round of storm development will hold off till later in the day as a series of shortwaves move across the Dakotas. The trajectory of the shortwaves look to be focused across the northern half of South Dakota, so expect convective initiation to be north of I-90, building south with time. Am expecting storms to be organized in clusters that may at times try to evolve into convective lines. With fair amount of dry air in the mid levels, downdraft CAPE values approach 1500-2000 J/kg by late this afternoon, with the highest values south of I-90. If storms are able to hold off till later in the day, hail threat may also be greater as storms will have more shear to organize and develop mid level rotation. With only weakly capped environment, boundaries lingering around and additional midlevel waves passing through the region, could see additional rounds of convection on Monday night into Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 With upper level ridge expected to develop across the desert southwest and a series of ridge riders expected to move across the northern half of the US, expect warm and sultry conditions to continue this week with periodic chances for thunderstorms. With active weather in the short term, left the blend as is in the extended. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 The forecast over the next 24 hours is notably challenging, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms possible. For this reason, there is low confidence overall in the TAF forecasts. That being said, high resolution models focus on two distinct periods of enhanced potential for storms. During the early AM hours, thunderstorms currently over central SD will move eastward, causing a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms for portions of SD and southwest MN during the morning hours, mainly north of I-90. Later in the afternoon and evening on Monday, a second round more widespread thunderstorms are possible as a compact weather system moves through. Have avoided timing out this period of storms in the late portion of the TAF for now, as model solutions vary widely with little agreement. Generally south winds prevail; however, many outflow boundaries may switch winds unexpectedly at times in the vicinity of storms. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM...BT AVIATION...VandenBoogart
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ081-089-090-098-NEZ013-014- SDZ062-066-067-069>071-062115- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Rock-Dixon-Dakota- Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Yankton-Union- 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Heat index values from the upper 80s to mid 90s will continue into the evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MNZ071-072-080-097-SDZ038>040-050-052>061-063>065-068-062115- Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Pipestone-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme- 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Heat index values from the upper 80s to mid 90s will continue into the evening. A few thunderstorms will continue along the Highway 14 corridor late this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening. A couple strong to severe storms may produce winds to 65 mph and hail of one inch in diameter. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Any reports of severe weather would be appreciated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
With rainfall of 2.09 inches at Edgerton and 2.04 inches at Luverne, the Rock River near Hardwick (gage site HRDM5) rose briefly into minor flood stage with a crest 0.27 feet above flood stage. Low-lying agricultural lands near the river were flooded.
With rainfall of 2.09 inches at Edgerton and 2.04 inches at Luverne, the Rock River near Hardwick (gage site HRDM5) rose briefly into minor flood stage with a crest 0.27 feet above flood stage. Low-lying agricultural lands near the river were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 907366, 907367.