Isolated severe thunderstorm in advance of a frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.
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The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorm in advance of a frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 6:43 PM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 743 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast today, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on Wednesday, and slowly tracks northeast to the mid Atlantic coast through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday... Latest analysis indicating ~1022 mb sfc high pressure centered well off the Carolina coast with sfc low pressure over Atlantic Canada. A weak sfc trough/frontal boundary extends SW from this low into the northern mid-Atlantic region. More importantly, the flow aloft is from the NW over the NE CONUS/New England, with the H5 gradient weakening farther S over the local area (with more of a WNW direction). A Severe Tstm Watch has been issued across the northern tier of the CWA (from Fluvanna Co to the northern Neck to Accomack VA). The main concern will be from strong heating that has occurred this aftn interacting with the NW flow aloft. SPC mesoanalysis depicts sfc-based CAPES on the order of 3000 J/Kg or more of VA W of the Bay (while it stays somewhat more stable/capped on the eastern shore until very late aftn/early evening). The models then show a greater enhancement of instability moving across the region (especially NE zones) by early evening as shortwave energy moves through the NW flow aloft. Latest PoPS are forecast to be 30-50% from the northern Piedmont to the northern Neck into early evening, buffered by 20-30% across the neighboring counties to the S and E of this (with <20% elsewhere). The best chance for strong to severe storms will likely occur into the evening as the shortwave tracks through and the NE zones (including the MD eastern shore). These zones will be the most favored as the modeled effective shear will be 25-30 kt (elsewhere it will tend to be 20-25 kt or less). PoPs on the MD eastern shore have been raised to 50-60% this evening. The main threats will be from strong/damaging winds with an isolated threat for hail also present in the strongest cores. Slight chance/chance PoPs linger through 06- 09Z on the eastern shore. Otherwise, drying overnight with lows mainly 70-75F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... On Tue, the trough aloft will be offshore of the Delmarva coast and overall conditions in the morning should be partly to mostly sunny w/ dry conditions. The overall mid level pattern will feature a developing weak trough over the TN Valley and deep south, with a weak ridge over the local area (especially near the coast). Latest 12Z/06 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local area and therefore PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just scattered 30-40% coverage across south central VA/interior NE NC and mostly 20% or lower elsewhere (did maintain ~30% PoP on the MD eastern shore for some seabreeze induced tstms in the aftn). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily in the mid 80s to around 90F at the immediate coast and over most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. It will continue to be humid however. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves ENE to near the SC coast, and then is expected to linger near the border of NC/SC coast during Wed with weak steering flow aloft. Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue night, then spreading N during Wed, with likely PoPs Wed aftn over the S. It will be rather humid Wed with dew pts remaining in the lower to mid 70s even through the aftn hrs, but highs will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more clouds, ranging from the lower to mid 80s S to the upper 80s/near 90 N. The potential for localized flash flooding increases Wed in the south where WPC has a day 3 Marginal for excessive rain, and all zones Thu as PWAT values surge to 1.75"+ along with the weak steering flow. Will have high chc to likely PoPs Thu with highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... After the coastal low moves northeast of the area, expect a broad upper trough to settle in across the eastern part of the United States through the weekend. This will keep a residual surface trough across the area as well leading to the typical summertime scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Best chances for this would be Friday and again Saturday with a little more upper moisture but each day will have chances for showers/storms. Temperatures seasonable generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Monday... A large cluster of tstms is located across NE MD and nrn DE as of 00z. This activity is expected to drift SE over the next few hours, and potentially affects SBY between 02-05z. This will bring the potential for MVFR or IFR conditions, primarily in vsby, and locally strong wind gusts. A chc of showers will then linger at SBY through 09z. Otherwise, there is only a slight chc of a shower or tstm through 06z at RIC/PHF, with mainly dry conditions at ORF/ECG. The wind will remain southerly tonight outside of any showers/tstms, with speeds of 5-8kt. Mostly sunny Tuesday with SCT aftn CU and a S to SSE wind of 8-10kt. There is a 20% chc of aftn showers/tstms at most sites, and ~30% at SBY. Increased coverage of showers/tstms is expected Wednesday through Saturday as low pressure is expected to lift NE along the coastal Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coast. Patchy morning stratus is also possible Thursday through Saturday as low-level moisture increases. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Generally south winds tonight through Wednesday with the broad high off the coast and weak low pressure over the southeastern states. May be a few hours late this afternoon into this evening with gusts of up to 20 kt in the bay and coastal waters, but these gusts should diminish after midnight. The aforementioned southeast low is expected to move off the Carolina coast later Wed night. This will allow winds to turn onshore and increase. A great deal of uncertainty of the exact track and timing of the low itself, but there will likely be a period of small craft advisory conditions at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. The low will move northeast of the area by Friday, although a lingering trough will continue. As such, winds will briefly turn northwest on Thursday but then shift back south on Friday. Seas will be 1-2 ft in the bay tonight into Wed and 2-3 ft over the open waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Will be issuing another Coastal Flood Statement for Bayside of the MD eastern shore for marginal/nuisance tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide later tonight/early Tue AM due to the persistent southerly flow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MRD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 804 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>090-092-093- 095>098-100-509>520-523>525-080015- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan- Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester- Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 804 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-VAZ064-075>078-099-521-522-080015- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Accomack- Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 804 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0748 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW PROSPECT 37.34N 78.57W
07/05/2020 PRINCE EDWARD VA 911 CALL CENTER
SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE
COUNTY.
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ESSThe Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:32 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree was downed on Roslyn Avenue near Cambridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maryland in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Maryland, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 911036.