During the day of March 2nd, southerly warm moist air moved through Kentucky from Tennessee just ahead of an upper trough and cold front. As a result, a series of strong storms moved across south central Kentucky late on the evening of March 2nd and into the morning of March 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
During the day of March 2nd, southerly warm moist air moved through Kentucky from Tennessee just ahead of an upper trough and cold front. As a result, a series of strong storms moved across south central Kentucky late on the evening of March 2nd and into the morning of March 3rd. Along with large hail, high winds, and some flash flooding, one particular storm produced a brief but strong tornado in southeast Warren County that crossed over into Allen County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 8:16 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 916 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 917 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Coordinate with the Storm Prediction Center on a possible Watch for the lone supercell getting ready to enter our CWA, and they agree that the environment will quickly become less favorable the farther east the cell gets. So, given the short term threat and the less favorable environment we have elected not to issue a Watch at this time. SPC agreed that the storm likely intensified low level rotation as it interacted with the warm front, and there may be a brief wind/tornado threat into Logan county. Will handle this with warnings as needed. Issued at 846 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 ...Strong Storm Threat Increases Over The Next 1 to 3 Hours... A lone supercell has tracked across western KY over the past few hours, producing a steady swath of severe hail. The overall structure hasn't looked as good over the past hour, however the low level rotation has recently picked up, prompting a Tornado Warning over Caldwell county KY. It appears rotation may have occurred as the supercell crossed over an advancing weak warm front. As the supercell progresses east into our area over the next hour or so, we should continue to lose our surface based instability in that area, a trend that has been evident over the past couple of hours. We may still have a few hundred J/KG to work with, but there will also be some notable CIN as some low level stability has set up after sunset. So, not overly concerned about the tornado threat for Butler/Logan counties at this point, but also can't completely rule it out either. Also not as concerned about the severe hail threat, as it doesn't currently appear to have the golf ball size potential that it had earlier this evening. The main concern will be marginally severe hail, cloud to ground lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. A secondary cluster of supercells developed back to the west over the MO bootheel, and is beginning to congeal into more of a cluster of storms. This will steadily push east into our area, around and after Midnight EST, likely bringing CG lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and a continuing potential for some severe hail. Storms should be elevated by this point, so not overly concerned about the damaging wind or tornado threat overnight at this point. Did want to mention one other thing. The surface low passes NE through the Ohio River Valley by dawn, with a trailing cold front pushing through the area. There is some data that suggests some pretty gusty W and WNW winds Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the system. At this point, it looks like most of the potential would be in the 30 to 40 mph range, but will have to take a closer look at that potential later tonight. Issued at 539 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 A surface low is expected to move out of the MO/AR border area early this evening, and up through the Ohio River Valley tonight. A weak warm front associated with the surface low will try to lift north over our area, bringing low to mid 50s dew points across our SW half of the CWA. In addition, increasingly strong wind fields will also be introduced as low level jetting steadily increases beneath strong mid and upper wind fields. This should promote convection the deeper into the evening we get, with sufficient shear for some rotating updrafts (perhaps some splitting storms with straighter hodographs noted). Convection has fired near the western KY/MO bootheel border over the past 30 minutes or so, with a few other cells trying to fire along and ahead of a nearly stationary boundary. There is a modest amount of surface based instability to work with across western KY, with around 500-1000 J/KG available across our SW CWA at this time. Storms should arrive for another 2-3 hours or so, and expect some of this surface based capability to wane by then. Still, may have to watch for some wind damage potential with any initial SW storms. The deeper into the evening we get, the main threat should transition to hail and brief heavy rainfall as storms become more elevated. The hail threat will be driven by low wet bulb zero heights and notable mid level instability. In addition, some elevated supercellular structures are expected which could enhance the hail threat (perhaps some severe hail). Already seeing one supercellular type structure over PAH's area, so will be monitoring how things progress upstream for the next couple of hours. Like the Storm Prediction Center Slight and Marginal risks placed where they are, and will be looking for potential for a Severe T- Storm Watch later this evening if upstream convection gets going. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 323 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 ...Strong Storms Tonight with Isolated Severe Storms Possible... An area of light to moderate rain showers continues to progress east across the Bluegrass region this afternoon. This is what's left of the morning convective complex/weak shortwave aloft, and this feature will quickly move to WV by this evening. Subsidence behind the morning wave has helped dry out the lower levels, resulting in a healthy amount of clearing over western and now central KY. This is an interesting development just downstream of a 1006 mb sfc low over the MO/AR border. In general, coarser models are likely still underestimating the sfc based and MLCAPE that will be available until 02-04z tonight. Looking aloft, central KY remains in the left exit region of a straight jet streak over OK/AR/TN. 250 mb divergence increases over the Lower Ohio Valley from 00-06z tonight, resulting in a modest deepening of the sfc low as it tracks northeast along the Ohio River. Convective initiation is expected over the MO Bootheel region between 21-00z. Instability and shear parameters in this region will initially support supercells, but upscale growth into a MCS appears likely over KY/TN after 03z. As sfc low pressure moves northeast after 00z, increasing low level convergence will help force numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight. Southerly flow will help push sfc dewpoints into the mid 50s in central and southern KY. The latest HRRR/RAP and HREF guidance suggests around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be present across central KY through 03-04z. Up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE cannot be ruled out across the far southwestern CWA through 03z. After 03z, MLCAPE will slowly wane but there could be a window for a severe wind threat. The higher wind potential remains across southern KY, where storms could remain sfc based longer. Deep layer shear around 40 kts will certainly be sufficient for rotating storms and sustaining strong updrafts. WBZ heights around 7500 ft, mid level dry air entrainment, and 3-6 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km will all promote hail growth as far north as southern Indiana. Storm rotation will only increase the potential hailstone residence time, so the Marginal Risk was expanded northward. Other threats with these storms certainly include lightning and locally heavy rainfall. If significant rainfall rates were able to persist/train over the same area, then perhaps an isolated flash flood threat could develop. Low pressure will quickly move off to the northeast Tuesday morning, with dry and breezy conditions expected for the afternoon. .Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Our area will be in a quasi-zonal flow pattern midweek, with a system heading by to our north Wednesday and then one moving into the TN Valley Thursday. That second system will force a surface low to deepen across the northern Gulf coast, and model guidance differs on just how far north a precip shield gets into our southern KY counties. Early look at the extended time of the NAM period shows some phasing with a northern stream trough, enough to bring that precip all the way to the Ohio River. This forecast will go dry for Wednesday areawide, and then bring some chance-range rains (i.e., above 25 percent) as far north as the KY Pkwys for Thursday and then east of I-65 Thursday night. Uncertainty remains into Friday, as the GEFS shows a large spread of heights aloft. Will keep in some pops for a cold rain then. Cannot rule out a brief mix of rain/snow with these lower-end pops over our northern counties early Friday. As we get into the weekend, there is good support for a dry one, as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. In fact, we may have a carbon copy of this past weekend, with colder temperatures Saturday and then southerly winds warming us up quickly for Sunday. A few models bring rain chances back in for Monday, though we may be able to keep that just west of I-65, based on the latest Euro and Canadian solutions. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 642 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 The TAF sites are currently in the VFR range, although this should be pretty short-lived as MVFR ceilings are expected to take back hold of the area this evening. In addition, shower and storm chances are expected to ramp up toward Midnight EST as a surface low moves into the Ohio River Valley. Have depicted the best expected time of any t-storm impacts at the TAFs with TEMPO groups, with otherwise prevailing SHRA and VCTS for much of the overnight. Low MVFR ceilings and even IFR vis may be possible at times tonight, especially in any storm. There may be a brief return to VFR in the pre-dawn hours in the wake of the main convection, however this will be short-lived as low MVFR and maybe even IFR ceilings return with the cold frontal passage through the morning hours. Behind the front, expect gusty W winds that may push up into the 30-35 mph range at times. Skies will gradually try to clear behind the front by the deeper into Tuesday afternoon we get. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Mesoscale...BJS Short Term...EBW Long Term...RJS Aviation...BJS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 359 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-032100- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 359 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 /259 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. As a low pressure system approaches the lower Ohio Valley tonight, scattered thunderstorms are expected. Large hail, heavy rain and lightning are the main hazards from these storms. In addition, strong gusty winds are possible especially over west central and south central Kentucky. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to report any significant weather, including heavy rainfall and flooding, strong or damaging winds, and hail. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. EBW/RJS
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:16 UTC.
3 hail, 3 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Quarter size hail fell near Davis Crossroads, and dime size hail covered the ground.
A trained spotter reported 1 hail.
A trained spotter reported 1 hail.
Two roads were closed due to flowing water. The first closure was at Coral Hill Road and Evans Road. The second closure was on Coral - Halfway Road.
A television viewer reported pictures of a large uprooted tree and some structural damage.
Most of the damage was around the southeastern portion of the Alvaton community, east of Bowling Green. Several trees were either uprooted or pushed over, facing from the west-southwest to the east-northeast just west of Highway 231 on Fairview Road. The wind swath was about 200 yards wide. Just east of Highway 231 a large 40 x 60 storage barn for a camper had its roof partially lifted downwind to the east northeast. The metal siding was flung up to 150 yards into the trees. The tree damage continued along Alvaton- Scottsville Road into Marble Gate Ct. Several homes sustained roof damage, with several porches partially lifted up causing structural damage. One home on Marble Gate Court had four 20-pound steel chairs flung about 50 yards and the 35-pound table thrown 25 yards. Portions of the porch covering were blown 125 yards into the yard of their next-door neighbors yard, 2 of which punctured the house like a flying 2 by 4 missile. There were also portions of the deck impaled in the ground. The damage swatch then increased to about 225 yards and winds increased to 80 to 85 mph. There were at least three trees laying on homes.
Just east off Claypool Boyce Road... there was a distinct change in the tree pattern. Instead of just going to the northeast trees were now going to the northwest, north and northeast. A large 2 x 8 went flying and got wedged between the windshield wiper and the windshield but incredibly did not crack the windshield. This is where a small tornado formed within the straight-line wind path, with winds between 80 and 85 mph. Residents reported half inch hail, followed by a surge in lightning, then quiet, then a 20 second loud roar with popping in their ears followed by complete silence again. Further east in the 500 block of Kara Court, there was significant tree damage with the back of the house being uplifted and insulation being thrown upwind and downwind around the back of the house. Trees were laying in all directions with lots of twisting and many snapped trees. At the 200 block of Cross Creek Court, the clearest evidence of trees are facing all eight inter-cardinal headings. In this area, trees were snapped and uprooted all over the place.
The survey team estimated well over 500 trees in a 1 mile stretch had been uprooted snapped or pushed over. Two of the snapped trees landed on pick up trucks. Winds increased to EF1 range of 95 mph and a width of 225 yards. At the 2400 block of WG Talley Road was the most significant damage of the entire survey. Three barns were destroyed, 2 of them were concreted in strong firm footers. One of the barns was 30 x 80, one was 150 x 100, and one was 12 x 16 along with numerous sheds destroyed, and debris was thrown in all directions downwind up to 500 yards. A 5000 pound horse trailer was thrown to the northwest 70 yards.
A very well-built family residence took a direct hit from an EF2 tornado, with the front side of the home having the plywood exposed and with most of the shingles gone but the rest of the house fully intact due to the house having all the proper clips, braces, and rebar. Wind speeds at this point were 116 mph with a width of 250 yards. EF-1 Tree damage continued into Allen County along Allen Springs Road. The tornado lifted just north of Bailey School Road in far NW Allen County.
Multiple trees were reported down, and there was significant roof damage to two homes.
Most of the damage was around the southeastern portion of the Alvaton community, east of Bowling Green. Several trees were either uprooted or pushed over, facing from the west-southwest to the east-northeast just west of Highway 231 on Fairview Road. The wind swath was about 200 yards wide. Just east of Highway 231 a large 40 x 60 storage barn for a camper had its roof partially lifted downwind to the east northeast. The metal siding was flung up to 150 yards into the trees. The tree damage continued along Alvaton- Scottsville Road into Marble Gate Ct. Several homes sustained roof damage, with several porches partially lifted up causing structural damage. One home on Marble Gate Court had four 20-pound steel chairs flung about 50 yards and the 35-pound table thrown 25 yards. Portions of the porch covering were blown 125 yards into the yard of their next-door neighbors yard, 2 of which punctured the house like a flying 2 by 4 missile. There were also portions of the deck impaled in the ground. The damage swatch then increased to about 225 yards and winds increased to 80 to 85 mph. There were at least three trees laying on homes.
Just east off Claypool Boyce Road... there was a distinct change in the tree pattern. Instead of just going to the northeast trees were now going to the northwest, north and northeast. A large 2 x 8 went flying and got wedged between the windshield wiper and the windshield but incredibly did not crack the windshield. This is where a small tornado formed within the straight-line wind path, with winds between 80 and 85 mph. Residents reported half inch hail, followed by a surge in lightning, then quiet, then a 20 second loud roar with popping in their ears followed by complete silence again. Further east in the 500 block of Kara Court, there was significant tree damage with the back of the house being uplifted and insulation being thrown upwind and downwind around the back of the house. Trees were laying in all directions with lots of twisting and many snapped trees. At the 200 block of Cross Creek Court, the clearest evidence of trees are facing all eight inter-cardinal headings. In this area, trees were snapped and uprooted all over the place.
The survey team estimated well over 500 trees in a 1 mile stretch had been uprooted snapped or pushed over. Two of the snapped trees landed on pick up trucks. Winds increased to EF1 range of 95 mph and a width of 225 yards. At the 2400 block of WG Talley Road was the most significant damage of the entire survey. Three barns were destroyed, 2 of them were concreted in strong firm footers. One of the barns was 30 x 80, one was 150 x 100, and one was 12 x 16 along with numerous sheds destroyed, and debris was thrown in all directions downwind up to 500 yards. A 5000 pound horse trailer was thrown to the northwest 70 yards.
A very well-built family residence took a direct hit from an EF2 tornado, with the front side of the home having the plywood exposed and with most of the shingles gone but the rest of the house fully intact due to the house having all the proper clips, braces, and rebar. Wind speeds at this point were 116 mph with a width of 250 yards. EF-1 Tree damage continued into Allen County along Allen Springs Road. The tornado lifted just north of Bailey School Road in far NW Allen County.
Multiple trees were reported down near Cemetery Road and Shockley Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2020Warnings in Kentucky, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 883051, 883130, 883131, 883049, 883136, 883133, 883139, 883403, 883145.