Severe thunderstorms moved across the region on the evening of March 2. A long-track supercell thunderstorm crossed the Mississippi River from the Cairo, IL area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Severe thunderstorms moved across the region on the evening of March 2. A long-track supercell thunderstorm crossed the Mississippi River from the Cairo, IL area. This storm proceeded east across Paducah and the Kentucky Lake region, where it produced a microburst and accumulating large hail. As the storm crossed the Pennyrile region, it produced an EF-1 tornado just south of Crofton, KY, in Christian County. Later on in the evening and overnight, disorganized clusters of thunderstorms produced a few isolated severe weather reports. This outbreak of storms occurred in a strong west-southwest flow ahead of a 500 mb shortwave over the Plains states. A southwest wind flow up to 30 knot at 850 mb provided some moisture for the storms. At the surface, a low pressure center moved east-northeast from the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley. A frontal boundary extending east-northeast from the low provided a focus for the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 3:17 PM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 317 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Main forecast issues come with severe weather potential very late this afternoon or early this evening through the early morning hours Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast up a stationary boundary located very close to the OH River. Storm initiation should be over portions of southeast MO between 4 PM and 7 PM as a mid level impulse shoots east toward northeast AR/southwest MO and provides added lift near the surface low over northeast AR, and low level jet 25-35 kts kicks in. Mid- level lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 degrees and MLCAPES from 1000-1500 J/KG suggest strong updrafts capable of producing large hail. Long, straight-lined hodographs and effective shear up close to 40 kts or so would be supportive of multi-cell storms with right and left slpitting supercells. Therefore, will also be a threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Last but not least would be the risk of localized flooding, esp in areas where storms may repeat, or train. The surface low should race northeast along the OH River and out of the forecast area after midnight, and force the trailing cold front through our eastern counties by around 2 or 3 AM. Thereafter, high pressure will build into the southern Plains and lower/mid MS River Valley, bringing clearing skies Tuesday/Tuesday night and mild early March temps in the lower/mid 60s at most locations. Wed should also be a rather nice day with afternoon temps in the 60s, though there could be some increase in cloud cover over our southern areas in response to the next weather maker well off to our southwest. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 After a chance of some light rain Wed night into Thursday, a few days of dry weather are expected. Rain chances will then return for early next week. Overnight lows will remain quite chilly, but daytime highs will be in the 50s and 60s. As far as the rain chances for Wed night into Thursday, this precip will be associated with a southern stream 500 mb shortwave that will eject from the southern Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley. This is the same shortwave that last week's models predicted would bring very heavy rain on Tuesday and Tues night. A lot has changed since then. Besides the slower timing, the track is much further south. Any rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch Thursday. Overnight lows will be around 40, with daytime highs 55 to 60. Thursday night into Friday, the southern stream shortwave will phase with a northern stream 500 mb shortwave over the eastern seaboard. This will result in a strongly confluent northwesterly flow of dry and colder air aloft. Skies will become sunny Friday, but gusty northwest winds will limit highs to the mid 40s in sw Indiana and around 50 elsewhere. This weekend will be dry with a warming trend as a 500 mb ridge moves east across the Mississippi Valley. Highs will be in the 50s Saturday and around 60 on Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday, along with southerly winds. The ensemble means are in agreement on a 500 mb southwest flow pattern early next week. A moist southern stream shortwave will likely bring some rain Monday. This looks like a low-amplitude progressive pattern, so preliminary indications point away from a heavy rainfall event. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Rather chaotic morning with frontal poised northwest of the WFO PAH TAF sites and few thunderstorm clusters pushing near the KCGI, KPAH, and possibly the KEVV TAF locations this morning. Lower MVFR and upper IFR ceilings will be expected at each of the TAF sites this afternoon and tonight, from northwest to southeast across the area. A thunderstorm complex may get going early this evening over portions of se MO/wrn KY/srn IL. For now, will include VCTS for KCGI/KPAH where the chances appear a bit higher. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...GM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 235 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-031100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 235 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly very late this afternoon into tonight, over much of the quad state region. A few storms may become strong to severe, especially over portions of southeast Illinois, western Kentucky and the southern tip of Illinois. While large Hail, damaing wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon into tonight. Spotters are also encouraged to send reports of any flooding to the National Weather Service in Paducah Kentucky. Meffert
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
400 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020
ILZ092-093-MOZ111-112-022230-
Alexander IL-Pulaski IL-Scott MO-Mississippi MO-
400 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI...
SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CST...
At 359 PM CST, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm near Bertrand, or near Miner, moving northeast at 30
mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Cairo, Mounds, Tamms, Mound City, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area,
Olive Branch, Blodgett and Diehlstadt.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3698 8958 3724 8927 3709 8915 3707 8918
3702 8918 3699 8915 3690 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 243DEG 25KT 3698 8947
DWSThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 18 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:14 UTC.
10 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 tornado, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of large hail accompanied a supercell thunderstorm across Ballard County, roughly along U.S. Highway 60.
A severe thunderstorm produced hail up to the size of golf balls in Paducah, mostly in the downtown area north along the Ohio River.
A microburst with estimated peak winds near 85 mph heavily damaged a marina on Lake Barkley. A dock was heavily damaged with the metal flooring beams bent, along with damage to many metal vertical supports and the metal roof. A relatively small portion of the roofing was blown off. One boat was blown off a lift, and the boat was partially submerged. The microburst was about one-quarter mile long and 200 yards wide.
A National Weather Service damage survey was conducted along the path of this tornado. At least four farm structures were damaged or destroyed, along with a portable garage and a regular constructed garage. Several homes lost siding or shingles. A couple dozen trees were uprooted. One home had six windows shattered or blown out. A cluster of damage survey points was in an area of structures along U.S. Highway 41 just south of Crofton. The tornado was witnessed by a meteorologist. Peak winds were estimated near 90 mph.
A report of strong winds was received from the Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) app.
Highway 109 was closed by flooding near a railroad crossing. Two vehicles were stuck in floodwaters.
Kentucky Highway 848 was closed by floodwaters between Trenton and Pinchem. A secondary road was closed by floodwaters just northwest of Elkton.
Minor flooding occurred along the Little River. Some street flooding occurred. Farmland was inundated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2020Warnings in Kentucky, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 874351, 874353, 874355, 874373, 874357, 874370, 874359, 874360, 874361, 874372, 874362, 876304, 876308, 877288, 874938, 876623.