Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain developed over western Kentucky on consecutive afternoons. The storms formed in response to daytime heating of a moist and unstable air mass.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain developed over western Kentucky on consecutive afternoons. The storms formed in response to daytime heating of a moist and unstable air mass. A southwest wind flow prevailed ahead of a cold front as it sagged southeast across Missouri and Illinois.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 12:30 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues to be the primary focus in the short term, particularly late tonight into Thursday evening, when heavy rain and localized flooding are possible. Forecast confidence is fairly decent with the synoptic scale features, but reduced by model differences in finer scale details. Over the next few days, a deepening upper level trough will approach from the Plains. An east to west baroclinic zone will become established across the forecast area. As waves of energy stream ahead of the trough, at least a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday night. For today, moisture advection on increasingly southerly flow will result in the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms by late morning and afternoon, mainly across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Slightly drier air and convective inhibition should keep much of the Evansville tri-state area dry through much of the day. Tonight, the potential for more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms increases as the first band of energy approaches. A noticeable increase in low level convergence (850 mb winds of 30 to 40 knots) feeding from the southern Plains into the Ozarks will increase precipitable water values to as high as 2 to 2.5 inches late tonight into Thursday morning, which is 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. As a result, the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding will increase overnight into Thursday morning. A relative lull in the precipitation is expected to spread west to east across the area later Thursday morning into the first part of the afternoon. However, afternoon heating and it resultant destabilization will likely yield the formation of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the mid/late afternoon and into the evening. Models differ on the amount of instability Thursday afternoon. However, when paired with an indicated uptick in deep layer shear, it could be enough to support the development of at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Precipitation efficiency will also be quite high, so any rain that falls will be capable of producing localized flooding. WPC continues to outlook southeast Missouri in a slight risk for excessive rainfall late tonight, with the entire forecast area in a slight risk Thursday and Thursday night. It is possible that a Flash Flood Watch may be needed for at least a portion of the area during that time. However, given model differences in placement of the heaviest QPF and the more localized nature of anticipated flooding, we opted to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for the time being. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Still a good deal of uncertainty in the medium range with regards to the progression of a surface system across the forecast area Friday through Saturday. 00Z GFS now seems to be a southern track outlier, taking a low pressure and associated frontal system southeast through the region much quicker Friday (possibly due to a faster surging outflow boundary from overnight/early AM convection), bringing it south into TN by afternoon. 00Z ECMWF/GEM hold the system/surface boundary up along the OH River Valley all day and into Fri night, bringing much higher chance for showers/sct thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall (precipitable water values upward of 2 inches) and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. However, 00z model consensus seems to converge somewhat by 12z Sat, becoming more progressive with this initial southern branch mid level short wave, and pushing the frontal system south and east quite a bit quicker than previous model runs have suggested. Remains to be seen as to whether this could be a one time model run flip, or a true trend toward a much calmer/drier weekend, esp along and north/west of the OH River. Will back off the likely rain chances for now over all except Pennyrile region of western KY, but will leave chancy POPs in all areas for the time being. A second mid level trof is then expected to dive southeast into the mid MS River Valley early next week. While this is not currently looking like a big rain-maker, it may end up being our best hope of getting some less humid air into the region from the northwest Monday/Tuesday time frame, with temps holding in the lower half of the 80s during the day, and falling into the mid 60s or so during the overnights. && .AVIATION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Outside of scattered showers and tstms this afternoon, mainly near the MS River, and in parts of western KY, VFR conditions are forecast in the near term. Tried to keep the tstm mention length minimal in the western TAFS (KCGI/KPAH). However, conditions are expected to deteriorate toward sunrise Thu as a low pressure system, centered in the northern reaches of our region, moves in from the west, bringing widespread rain at a minimum (tstms possible but not certain). MVFR conditions will begin to move in from the west near sunrise, followed quickly by IFR in most locations, with cigs the primary driving factor. Winds will be generally light southwesterly initially, going more southerly and even easterly in southwestern IN and adjacent southern IL near the low center beyond daybreak. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...DB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 433 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 433 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today, mainly from late morning into the afternoon, and primarily across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, an western Kentucky. The chance of thunderstorms will spread northeast to encompass the entire area by tonight. Lightning and locally heavy rain are the main concerns. The heavy rain threat will increase late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Thursday night. Lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds are the main concerns. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts by Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast Friday and Saturday. Though locally heavy rainfall looks to be the primary concern at this time, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out from mainly southeast Missouri eastward across western Kentucky. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible over parts of the region Sunday, but with much less heavy rain potential. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. RJP/GM
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 15 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:04 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Road closures were reported in the city of Paducah. At least a couple feet of water covered those roads. Nearby rain gages measured about three inches of rain in 45 minutes.
Minor street flooding was reported in Hopkinsville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 905688, 905689.