Funnel Cloud in Kentucky, August 22, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Will go with a dense fog advisory through 9 AM CDT for all of
southern IL/se MO, as well as the Purchase region of far west KY.
Visibilities have already plunged to less than 1/2 mile at several
observation sites in those areas. Conditions should improve
gradually after sun-up as the fog burns off.

Nearly stationary mid level trof extending from MS/AL northeast
through the TN/OH River Valley region looks to bring a repeat of
yesterday, with scattered thunderstorms expected to form during
the heat of the day in wrn KY/sw IN/far se IL, east of the trof
axis. The storms could be rather slow moving, so locally heavy
rainfall looks to be the main storm hazard, along with deadly
lightning.

The trof is expected to shift just far enough east by Sunday/Monday
to keep the bulk of the storm chances east of the forecast area.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will be the main weather
story, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

High confidence in a hot/dry forecast to begin the long term period.
We transition to a lower confidence regime later in the week as
tropical moisture/remnants of Laura potentially impact the lower
Ohio Valley.

Upper level high pressure over the center of the country along with
surface high pressure over the TN Valley will lead to a dry forecast
on Tuesday, and quite possibly into Wednesday as well (although some
hints at deeper moisture increasing in our far southern counties to
produce some isolated convection). Temperatures will be above normal
for late August, generally in the lower 90s.

By Thursday, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Laura is shown being funneled northward up the
Mississippi River Valley. Disagreement exists in exact placement of
the heaviest rain axis, and there will continue to be fluctuations
over the coming days. However, there is fairly decent agreement that
convection will increase across the PAH cwa as precipitable water
values increase to around or just above 2 inches. We will continue
to monitor the late week situation closely as some flooding
potential could materialize.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be highly dependent on the
degree of cloud cover and areal coverage of precipitation. For now
continue to side toward the warmer end of the spectrum with highs in
the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Patch dense fog around se MO/srn IL/far wrn KY for a few hours
early today will be followed by generally VFR conditions with
light winds. Sct afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once
again across wrn KY/sw IN, but expect location and timing
uncertainties preclude mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>009.

&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
941 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-231445-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
941 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again, mainly this
afternoon over western Kentucky, southwest Indiana and far
southeast Illinois. Locally heavy rainfall and deadly lightning
look to be the main thunderstorm hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A small chance for thunderstorms returns to portions of
southeast Missouri and western Kentucky on Wednesday. Chances for
thunderstorms increase across the entire region Thursday into
Friday. Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MY/GM