Winter Weather in Indiana, February 28, 2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
932 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Several upper level disturbances will move across the region
through Friday keeping off and on precipitation chances in the
forecast. Dry conditions are expected for the weekend before an
unsettled and wet pattern develops for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Snow showers have developed roughly near I-70 and are currently
affecting travel with light snow accumulations and lowered
visibilities. Have issued special weather statements covering
hazards of slick roads and reduced visibilities. Expect snow to
dwindle after midnight as forcing near a weak surface trough
translates to the southeast.

Winds will be gusty through the evening hours. During the
overnight hours there will still be some wind gusts, however
expect them to be more isolated in nature. With the combination
of falling temperatures and winds, wind chill values will drop
into the single digits across a large portion of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The one wave of snow will be moving out at the start of the
short term, however additional snow showers will be possible
near and south of the Ohio River later in the day on Friday
into the first part of Friday night as another disturbance moves
through. Minor snowfall accumulations will be possible. In
addition cannot rule out some light snow showers or flurries
across the northern portions of the forecast area with winds off
of the lake.

Friday night expect another cold night with wind chill values in
the single digits expected once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building across the
area Saturday. This high will offer dry weather and continued colder
than normal temperatures. Saturday's highs to range from near 30
northeast to near 40 southwest.

Long wave trof shifts east with mid level ridging/height rises
building into the region Sunday. This will provide a moderation of
temperatures. Readings look to warm above normal with Sunday's fcst
highs from 50 north to the upper 50s south.

Model solutions fairly consistent with mid level flow backing
westerly and embedded s/w and WAA leading to a chance of pcpn late
Sunday night into Monday. Warm temperatures with highs Monday in the
mid and upper 50s.

Rain chances increase as flow backs southwesterly and slow moving
surface front pushes into the area Tuesday. Favorable moisture
transport develops, with the potential for a prolonged period of
rain - pointing to a signal for heavy rain.

Considerable model solution spread continues to be observed
regarding the details of where the heavy rain sets up. Deterministic
model runs have trended south with the heaviest rain axis. At this
time the most favored region looks to be over ILN/s southern
counties, but a fair amount of uncertainty exists regarding the
exact placement of this heavy rain axis.

On the warm side of the system, expect Tuesday and Wednesday's highs
from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

A general drying trend next Thursday with surface low and frontal
boundary shifting to the east. Temperatures to trend closer to
normal with highs from the lower 40s northwest to near 50
southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looks like more light snow with MVFR conditions tonight as a
weak trough of low pressure travels from the west. Latest models
suggest a band of light snow developing near Dayton, then moving
southward to affect all TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities
will improve early Friday while snow ends as drier air filters
in behind the trough. Winds will subside to around 10 knots
overnight out of the west, with speeds rising again on Friday,
with gusts to 25 knots possible at northern sites DAY ILN CMH
and LCK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
928 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-290230-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
928 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Quick moving narrow bands of snow will move through overnight. While
amounts are generally expected to be around an inch or less, the
quick accumulation rate and cool pavement temperatures could lead to
slick spots on area roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1130 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     SNOW             3 WNW KETTERING         39.71N  84.20W
02/27/2020  M1.6 INCH        MONTGOMERY         OH   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN2000414

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1130 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

INZ058-059-066-OHZ060>065-070>074-080-280530-
Fayette IN-Franklin IN-Union IN-Highland OH-Fairfield OH-
Montgomery OH-Ross OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-Pickaway OH-Greene OH-
Fayette OH-Clinton OH-Preble OH-Hocking OH-
1130 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA...FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHERN PREBLE COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO...BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD...FAYETTE...HOCKING AND PICKAWAY COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
OHIO...ROSS...WARREN AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...
SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN HIGHLAND
COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 1230 AM EST...

At 1127 PM EST, radar indicated snow showers along a line extending
from 7 miles south of Connersville to near Mount Sterling, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Quickly changing visibility...
1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation...

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Kettering, Middletown, Beavercreek, Fairfield, Lancaster,
Mason, Xenia, Chillicothe, Oxford, Miamisburg, Lebanon, Forest Park,
Springboro, Washington Court House, Sharonville, Circleville,
Wilmington, Monroe and Loveland.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 19 and 76.
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 152.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 17 and 47.

Exercise caution while traveling as driving conditions may change
quickly.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3947 8217 3947 8228 3938 8229 3937 8275
      3917 8277 3918 8337 3931 8461 3928 8530
      3960 8530 3973 8365 3969 8325 3976 8325
      3977 8314 3970 8237 3960 8238 3954 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 274DEG 24KT 3955 8515 3971 8319

McGinnis

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