Showers and thunderstorms developed along a surface warm front that lifted slowly north across western Kentucky and southern Illinois in the afternoon. Soils were quite saturated from recent heavy rains, causing rapid runoff and isolated flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed along a surface warm front that lifted slowly north across western Kentucky and southern Illinois in the afternoon. Soils were quite saturated from recent heavy rains, causing rapid runoff and isolated flash flooding. Precipitable water values ranged from 2 to 2.25 inches along the front. The heavy rain potential was limited by weak 850 mb winds around 10 knots. Strong instability contributed to a few severe storms that briefly pulsed above severe limits. Weak winds aloft limited the potential for organized strong or severe thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 12:58 PM CST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
158 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
Extended the Heat Advisory through Sunday given similar conditions
are forecast. Some eastward expansion may be required in time.
Otherwise robust convection formed near the decaying frontal
boundary in a zone of 2+ inch PW's and high instability / theta-e
air from southeast Missouri into west KY this afternoon. Isolated
flooding concerns will continue, with some gusty winds with
storms, 30 to 50 mph. Overall not real concerned with isolated
severe. The storms should wind down this evening, with generally
quiet conditions overnight. Will monitor the fog potential. Cannot
rule out a few thunderstorms Saturday along and north of Route 13
into southwest Indiana. Otherwise it will be dry through Sunday
night, with the heat and humidity firmly established due to a
strong upper ridge over the area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
Models bring a frontal boundary just north of the PAH forecast area
by Monday, and keep it just north of us into Tuesday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will spread south across our region on Monday,
retreating to just our far north counties Monday night with loss of
heating. Chances will spread back south on Tuesday with the heat of
the day.
A surface low will move from the Northern Plains Tuesday into the
western Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. This will lift
the initial boundary northeast, thus focusing any lingering
convection on our northeast counties Tuesday night. As this low
continues eastward, models show the low dragging a cold front east,
then laying this boundary out just north of the PAH fa again. For
Wednesday through Friday, we will see conditions similar to early
week pattern, with convection chances spread south with the heat of
the day, then backing off somewhat to mainly our north and east
counties during the overnight hours.
Highs on Monday will be in the middle 90s, and with dew points
mostly in the lower to middle 70s, afternoon heat indices in the 100
to around 105 degree range are expected. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the lower to middle 90s, and heat indices will top our around
100 degrees. For the rest of the week, highs will generally back off
to the lower 90s, giving us heat indices of 95 to around 100
degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020
Numerous thunderstorms will continue through the end of the day
primarily south of a KFAM-KMDH-KOWB line. Winds will be variable
and gusty (at times over 30 kts) in and near storms, with local
MVFR-LIFR conditions. The storms should diminish considerably
from 00-03 UTC this evening. Overnight, generally VFR conditions.
Will have to monitor the fog potential for tonight if it clears
fast enough, combined with light winds and the rains across the
area. SSW winds 5 to 10 kts will develop Saturday morning, with
generally VFR conditions.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>111.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-
085-086.
KY...None.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 202 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-181000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 202 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue through early evening, mainly across southeast Missouri, west Kentucky, and the southern tip of Illinois. Isolated flooding remains a concern with the stronger storms. Gusty winds 30 to 50 mph will also be possible with the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A Heat Advisory is in effect Saturday and Sunday. Refer to the Advisory product for details. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday from southern Illinois into southwest Indiana. Afternoon heat indices will range from 100 to 105 Monday, and will be around 100 degrees Tuesday. Expect daily thunderstorm chances beyond Saturday, focused primarily during the heat of the afternoon. Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary storm hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1258 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SE HICKORY 36.80N 88.62W
07/17/2020 GRAVES KY EMERGENCY MNGR
HOUSE WAS SURROUNDED BY WATER ON HOPEWELL
ROAD. WATER HAS SINCE RECEDED.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0234 PM FLOOD POPLAR BLUFF 36.76N 90.39W
07/17/2020 BUTLER MO EMERGENCY MNGR
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS IS
OCCURRING.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0237 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E REIDLAND 37.01N 88.51W
07/17/2020 M3.10 INCH MCCRACKEN KY NWS EMPLOYEE
3.1 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN APPROXIMATELY 45
MINUTES.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NW LYNN GROVE 36.63N 88.51W
07/17/2020 GRAVES KY EMERGENCY MNGR
ANTIOCH CHURCH ROAD IS CURRENTLY CLOSED BY
HIGH WATER.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM FLASH FLOOD SHARP 36.99N 88.47W
07/17/2020 MARSHALL KY BROADCAST MEDIA
AT LEAST FIVE LOCATIONS ON SCALE ROAD
FLOODED.
&&
DWSSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 MOZ086-087-172100- Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO- 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BOLLINGER AND WEST CENTRAL CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT... At 315 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Leopold, or near Marble Hill, moving northeast at 10 mph. Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Marble Hill, Leopold, Grassy and Glenallen. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3716 8994 3727 9015 3749 9007 3732 8973 TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 205DEG 10KT 3726 8993 08
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several inches of water flowed across Old Highway 51 near Cobden. Four other roads nearby were also covered by water.
A wind gust to 66 mph was measured by the automated weather observing system at the Carbondale airport.
Numerous trees were blown down in the Hickory Ridge area near Pomona. This area is mainly in the Shawnee National Forest.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 905346, 899738, 899737.