Florida, 2020

Flood and Damaging Wind in Florida, September 26 to 29, 2020

September 26 to 29, 2020 · NWS JAX · 5 events in 2 counties and zones

A stalled weak front extending across inland SE GA with a mid/upper level short wave trough moving over the boundary in the afternoon. 25 inches.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$500
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.

A stalled weak front extending across inland SE GA with a mid/upper level short wave trough moving over the boundary in the afternoon. Southerly steering over a very moisture airmass with PWATs near 2.25 inches. The combination of the high moisture, weak SSW steering flow and lift under the passing upper level wave triggered locally heavy rainfall and gusty downdraft winds in sea breeze collisions storms toward the Atlantic coast.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 8:25 PM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 25, 8:25 PM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
925 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...
...HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...

Late evening surface analysis depicts weak low pressure over the
Carolinas, with a weakening frontal boundary extending southwest
of this feature across inland southeast GA and the FL Big Bend
region. Aloft...a progressive shortwave trough was exiting the
Appalachians and was moving northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
states. Deep-layered ridging has been displaced eastward over the
Bahamas and eastern Cuba, while a cutoff trough was spinning over
the upper Texas coast. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable
Water Vapor imagery indicates a much drier air mass in the wake of
the frontal boundary to the west of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers,
while a moist air mass persists across our area, with PWATS
mostly in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Despite increasing moisture
levels and 0-6 km southwesterly speed shear around 30-35 knots,
forcing from the shortwave trough well to the north of our region
was only able to develop scattered convection across inland
southeast GA this afternoon and evening. Activity is moving
quickly northeastward and is crossing the U.S. Highway 301
corridor near Jesup, with isolated activity located along the
FL/GA border to the west of Trail Ridge and also along the
Altamaha River near Hazlehurst. Mid-level cloudiness is otherwise
increasing in coverage along the U.S.-301 corridor in northeast
FL, where a remnant Atlantic sea breeze boundary was drifting
westward. Warm and humid conditions prevail area-wide, with
temperatures outside of rain cooled locations still in the upper
70s to lower 80s at 01Z, with dewpoints uniformly in the low to
mid 70s.

Widely scattered showers will be possible through around midnight
as activity collides with the remnant Atlantic sea breeze
boundary positioned near U.S. 301. Abundant moisture and
decreasing boundary layer winds should set the stage for
widespread fog at inland locations early on Saturday morning, with
areas of dense fog possible for locations west of U.S. Highway
301. Lows tonight will range from near 70 across inland southeast
GA to the mid and upper 70s at coastal locations.

Fog should dissipate before the mid-morning hours on Saturday.
Heights aloft will rise as deep-layered ridging retrogrades
westward from the Bahamas across the FL peninsula into the
southeast Gulf of Mexico as shortwave troughing departs the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Strengthening subsidence should result in only
isolated late afternoon convection developing along the inland
moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary for locations in the southern
St. Johns River basin and the Ocala National Forest. Hot and humid
conditions will prevail nearly area-wide as the frontal boundary
dissipates, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to the lower
90s, with afternoon heat index values soaring to the 100-105
degree range.

&&

.MARINE...

A weakening frontal boundary will stall to the west of our local
waters and will then dissipate during the weekend. A southerly
evening wind surge around 15 knots will diminish after midnight.
Seas of 3-5 feet tonight will fall back to 2-3 feet near shore on
Saturday and then 2-3 feet throughout our waters from Saturday
night through Monday. A weak pressure pattern will also prevail
through Monday, resulting in prevailing light onshore winds
beginning on Saturday afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary moves inland. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
increase over our waters beginning on Sunday afternoon. A strong
cold front will then approach our local waters on Tuesday night,
creating increasing southwesterly winds. This front is slated to
cross our local waters on Wednesday, accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing towards noon on Saturday
will combine with a lingering long period east southeast ocean
swell to keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Tide levels continue to slowly diminish, with levels expected to
reach near minor flood levels within the southern St. Johns Basin
during times of high tide this weekend. We have cancelled the
Coastal Flood Advisory and placed a Coastal Flood Statement for
Putnam County through Saturday night, where mostly nuisance
flooding is possible around times of high tide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [756 PM EDT]...

.Near Term.../through Saturday/...

As eastward tracking low pressure moves toward the Carolinas
Tonight, a cold front will move into forecast area from the
northwest. Scattered to numerous storms, with a few strong storms
possible through this evening across SE GA as this front approaches.
The front will move to near the FL/GA line Saturday, and stall, with
isolated to scattered convection initiating across area during the
heat of the day.

Temperatures will trend well above normal this period.

.Short Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/...

The frontal boundary will dissipate over region Sunday into Sunday
night, as high pressure builds to the east northeast. With the high
to the east northeast, a more moist onshore flow will yield
increasing precipitation chances. The high will continue to the east
northeast Monday into Monday night, as a cold front approaches from
the west. The flow will become more from the south Monday into
Monday night with moisture on the increase, yielding greater
precipitation chances.

A strong cold front will move southeast toward western counties
Tuesday afternoon. Given the strength of this front, strong to
severe storms will be possible with the frontal approach, especially
during diurnal heating Tuesday afternoon into evening.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

.Long Term.../Tuesday night through Friday/...

The ECMWF is a little slower than the GFS this period with the cold
front sweeping through in the Tuesday night to Wednesday morning
timeframe. The front is expected to move into southern FL for
Thursday into Friday. Strong high pressure will build from the
northwest Friday, which could lead to a period of enhanced onshore
flow.

Temperatures will trend near to below normal this period. A
noticeable difference in airmass is expected later this period, as
much drier air advects in following front, with dewpoints in the 50s
common by late week.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 05Z. Isolated showers
may impact the regional terminals through around 05Z, but expected
low coverage allowed for only vicinity coverage in the latest
TAFs. Fog will likely develop at the inland terminals after 06Z,
with dense fog and LIFR conditions possible at GNV and VQQ after
08Z. Fog and MVFR conditions will be possible elsewhere after 09Z,
except at SSI and SGJ, where VFR conditions should prevail. VFR
conditions should then prevail area-wide by 14Z. Light north-
northwesterly surface winds will develop by 14Z at the terminals,
followed by the Atlantic sea breeze pushing across the coastal
terminals towards 16Z and then moving inland across the rest of
the Duval County terminals by 21Z. Surface winds will shift to
northeasterly and then easterly on Saturday afternoon, with
sustained speeds at the coastal terminals increasing to near 10
knots by 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  70  88  70  87  70 /  30  10  10  70  40
SSI  76  87  75  85  74 /  10  10  10  60  40
JAX  74  92  73  89  73 /  20  10  10  70  30
SGJ  77  89  76  88  74 /  10  10  20  50  30
GNV  73  92  71  89  72 /  20  10  10  80  20
OCF  73  92  72  90  73 /  10  20  10  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:59 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 heavy rain, 1 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Flagler

When
September 26, 12:00 AM EST to September 29, 10:00 AM EST
Where
Flagler County, 0.92 mi SE of Grand Haven
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
29.530, -81.160

A total of 6 inches of rainfall was measured at in Hershel King Park over the weekend.

Heavy Rain, St. Johns

When
September 27, 12:08 PM EST to 3:08 PM EST
Where
St. Johns County, 0.91 mi SE of Casa Cola
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
29.960, -81.340

The St. Augustine airport AWOS measured 2.80 inches within 3 hours.

Heavy Rain, St. Johns

When
September 27, 12:08 PM EST to 3:08 PM EST
Where
St. Johns County, 1.38 mi ENE of Fruit Cove
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
30.110, -81.610

A mesonet station near Fruit Cove measured 3.45 inches of rain in 3 hours.

Flood, St. Johns

When
September 27, 3:25 PM EST to 4:30 PM EST
Where
St. Johns County, 1.43 mi SSE of College Park to 1.03 mi S of Anastasia
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
29.861, -81.341

At 1625, a trained storm spotter reported heavy rain caused street flooding up to 1 ft deep in some areas in the vicinity of St. Augustine. Roads impacted by flood water included State Road 312, State Road 207 and US Route 1. Cars were stalled in flood water. At 1730, Emergency Management reported roads were closed in St. Augustine due to flood water. Road closures included San Sebastian Bridge and King Street from Ponce de Leon Blvd to past Whitney Street.

Thunderstorm Wind, St. Johns

When
September 27, 4:30 PM EST
Where
St. Johns County, 0.91 mi NE of Anastasia
Measured
40 kt (46 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$500
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
29.890, -81.290

An oak tree was blown down across the road. There was a lot of heavy rainfall and saturated ground in the area. The cost of damage was estimated for Storm Data.

What these are

Heavy Rain
Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 921739, 921736, 921737, 921735, 921738.