High pressure was weakening NE of the region. Persistent onshore flow and large swells continued to bring a High Rip Current Risk to northeast Florida beaches.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
High pressure was weakening NE of the region. Persistent onshore flow and large swells continued to bring a High Rip Current Risk to northeast Florida beaches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 26, 7:08 AM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
808 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]
LIFR conditions will prevail through at least 13Z at JAX, SSI, VQQ
and GNV, with improvement to IFR expected before 14Z at these
terminals. IFR conditions are expected to briefly develop at CRG,
with improvement to MVFR expected by 14Z, while VFR conditions
develop towards 14Z at GNV. VFR conditions should prevail at SGJ
through around 14Z, followed by MVFR ceilings developing towards
16Z. MVFR ceilings should also prevail at the Duval County
terminals and SSI by 16Z. Northerly surface winds sustained around
5 knots will shift to northeasterly this morning, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals by 16Z and
around 10 knots at the inland terminals. Low clouds and
potentially dense fog formation are expected at the inland
terminals after 03Z tonight, while isolated showers may move
onshore from the Atlantic waters across the SGJ terminal
overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [351 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Early this morning...Weak High pressure ridge building north of
the region over the Carolinas will push a slightly cooler and
Northeast low level flow into the region early this morning and
this will help to develop low clouds and patchy dense fog towards
sunrise, mainly over inland areas, with the best chances for
locally dense fog across inland SE GA along the Atlamaha River
Basin west of the Brunswick Metro Area.
Rest of Today...Developing onshore East-Northeast flow will keep
most of SE GA and coastal NE FL slightly cooler than y'day with
highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s, but still above normal and
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will linger through the day
even after the low clouds and morning fog dissipates. Further
south across inland NE FL, not much different than y'day with
highs still reaching into the mid/upper 80s under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Atmosphere still mostly too dry to support much in
the way of rainfall chances but an isolated shower over inland NE
FL not out of the question down across Marion County and also
along the NE FL coast in the developing onshore flow.
Tonight...Onshore East to Northeast flow will promote isolated
showers along the Atlc Coastal Areas of NE FL/SE GA and low clouds
and patchy fog over inland areas. Min Temps will fall into the
mid/upper 60s across inland SE GA and only the lower 70s along
coastal SE GA and most of NE FL due to the onshore flow and
abundant cloud cover.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
A mid/upper ridge over the region continues to move eastward
developing deep southerly flow. This setup will lift tropical
moisture into the area increasing rain chances for midweek. The
bulk of the moisture will be displaced to the northwest of the
area on Wednesday focusing the best chances for rain over inland
southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm
Zeta moves north-northwestward from the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula into the southern Gulf along the western periphery of
the ridge. On Wednesday, a cut off low will move eastward through
the Southern Plains and sweep up Zeta, merging it into our next
cold front moving through the Deep South. Temperatures will be
above climo with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...
Upper ridge over the region gets squashed as a mid/upper cut off
low moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, at the
surface, Zeta passes to our north from the Southeast into the Mid-
Atlantic states dragging a cold front through the Deep South.
Ahead of the front, scattered showers and isolated storms possible
with the lingering tropical moisture and lift. The cold front
pushes in from the northwest on Friday. A cool, dry airmass
settles in over the region for the weekend lowering daytime high
temperatures into the 70s and overnight lows back in the mid 50s-
low 60s across inland portions of the area. Isolated coastal
showers may be possible with onshore flow developing this weekend.
.MARINE...
High pressure re-building north of the waters will increase NE
winds back into the 10-15 knot range today with lingering swells
continuing combined seas in the 3-5 ft range, the High slowly
builds offshore into the Wrn Atlc and winds become East on Tuesday
then Southeast on Wednesday, then South to Southwest on Thursday
as expected Track of TC Zeta stays well northwest of the local
waters, but then drags a cold front through the waters by Friday
as winds becomes Northwest and increase for the weekend closer to
Small Craft Advisory levels.
Rip Currents: High risk continues along the NE FL beaches with
surf/breakers still in the 3-4 ft range as onshore flow re-
develops today. Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today and all
beaches on Tuesday as onshore flow continues but long period
swells slowly diminish.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 82 65 82 70 85 / 0 0 20 20 30
SSI 78 70 79 72 81 / 0 10 20 10 30
JAX 83 70 84 72 85 / 10 20 40 20 30
SGJ 82 73 85 73 85 / 20 20 30 20 20
GNV 86 71 87 71 87 / 10 10 50 20 20
OCF 88 72 89 72 89 / 20 10 50 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Baker-
Bradford-Clay-Coastal Nassau-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Appling-
Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-
Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-
Wayne-Western Charlton.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
out 20 NM.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple water rescues occurred near North 3rd Street and South 5th Street in Flagler Beach. One rescue near North 3rd Street was transported to the hospital.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 923941.