Wildfire in Florida, May 7 to 26, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
337 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

..EXTENDED HEAVY-RAIN EVENT AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.Short Term (Rest of Today through Friday)...
The rest of today is anticipated to stay on the dry side with a cold
frontal boundary to the south of the CWA and a pinch to the south of
the Florida Keys. Current GOES-16 satellite low-mid water vapor
imagery show the pronounced drier air over the region with
satellite derived PW's near 0.6 inches. Temperatures tonight in
the mid-50s across the Lake Region, upper-50s to near 60 across
the west coast and the interior sections, and in the mid to upper-
60s along the east coast, about 4 to 6 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

By Friday, high pressure briefly builds back in across the Sunshine
State with another dry day expected before gradually sliding
eastward into the western Atlantic. Winds will swing from the SE
throughout the course of the day as the aforementioned high drifts
east. Consequently, moisture will quickly return back into South
Florida with forecast PW's encroaching upon 1.00 inches by the end
of the day. High temperatures on Friday will generally range from
the lower 80s across the east coast to around 90 across the interior
sections.

.Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday)...
On Saturday, a cold front will move into northern and central
Florida and then stall out. Lower level moisture will begin to
increase on Saturday, however, most of the day will remain
rainfree across the region as the airmass currently in place is
very dry. At the same time, a disorganized mid level disturbance
over the western Gulf of Mexico will start to move eastward
towards the region. This will allow for quite a bit of moisture
advection to take place across South Florida for the second half
of the weekend and into early next week. This combined with the
frontal system to the north will bring the potential for a heavy
rain event across the region beginning on Saturday night and
lasting into early next week. The heaviest rainfall should occur
on Sunday into Sunday evening as a frontal wave moves east
northeast across extreme southern portions of the area.

Since conditions have been pretty dry across the region as of
late, it make take some time for the ground to saturate enough to
allow for runoff to take place. However, with the amount of
moisture moving into the region, there will be the potential for
some flooding to occur especially later on Sunday and into Sunday
night. The exact locations that will see the heaviest rainfall or
the greater flooding potential remain uncertain, but in general,
this disturbance could produce upwards of 3 to 6 inches of total
rainfall through the early portion of next week especially along
and south of a line extending from Fort Lauderdale to Everglades
City. There could be localized higher amounts especially where the
heavier showers and thunderstorms develop. Even with the
uncertainty of where the heavier rain and stronger storms will
develop, an active weather pattern across South Florida is likely
beginning on Saturday night. This will continue to be monitored
as the rest of the week progresses.

As for Tuesday and into the middle portion of next week, the
latest computer model guidance shows the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms decreasing. However, with both of the GFS and the
ECMWF continuing to show some mid level impulses tracking across
the region during this time frame, the chances of showers and
thunderstorms will remain in place across the area. The stronger
showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall which could
allow for the flooding potential across the region to remain
elevated during this time frame. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.Marine...
Breezy northwesterly to northerly winds are expected to continue
this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. For the Atlantic
waters, southward-building swell combined with the increased winds
will support hazardous marine conditions, especially over the
Gulf Stream, into the overnight hours tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory continues for the Atlantic waters of South Florida. Winds
will become easterly to southerly for Friday into this weekend in
advance of a weather disturbance approaching the region. This
disturbance will advance east-northeastward across the waters of
South Florida this weekend into early next week, supporting
widespread showers and the potential for strong thunderstorms from
late Saturday into early next week.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR and dry conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Breezy NNW winds shift from the NE this afternoon before shifting
from the SE by Friday.

&&

.Beach Forecast...
A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in effect for all South Florida
beaches today due to a combination of factors: (1) onshore flow for
the Gulf coast and (2) southward-building swell along the Atlantic
coast. For Friday into this weekend, winds should become more
onshore for the Atlantic coast, with swell continuing to build
southward, resulting in a potential increase in the rip-current risk
for the Atlantic beaches. However, the rip-current risk should be
decreasing for the Collier County beaches by this weekend as
offshore flow becomes established. Chances for showers will
substantially increase later Saturday into early next week, and a
few strong thunderstorms will also be possible during this time
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Breezy north-northwest winds behind a cold front combined with a
very dry air mass will result in near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions to continue across South Florida for the
remainder of this afternoon into early this evening. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect where critical fire weather conditions are
likely, while a Fire Weather Watch is in place for areas where
critical fire weather conditions are possible.

Breezy winds are already in the process of veering from the north to
northeast but are expected to weaken and become easterly then
southerly into Friday. This wind shift is expected to support
increasing moisture on Friday, resulting in a reduction of the fire-
weather risk. However, elevated fire-weather conditions may persist
into Friday where lingering dry air focuses over parts of interior
southwest Florida.

Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms are forecast to spread
across South Florida during the latter part of this weekend into
early next week. Otherwise, generally good dispersion is expected
for the rest of today with good to very good dispersion expected on
Friday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  66  83  68  87 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  69  82  71  86 /  10   0   0  10
Miami            68  84  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           61  85  69  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-069>075.

     Fire Weather Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066-
     068-168-172>174.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

Marine...03/Fell
Aviation...03/Fell
Beach Forecast...03/Fell
Fire Weather...03/Fell
Short Term...03/Fell
Long Term...55/CWC

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
080700-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE/BEACH CONDITIONS....
...ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all
South Florida beaches today.

Wind: Winds close to 20 knots and gusting higher across the Atlantic
waters, particularly the northern Atlantic waters offshore Palm
Beach County

Waves: Seas will build today with increasing winds and a northerly
swell moving into the Atlantic waters. Seas of 6 to 8 feet are
possible mainly in the Gulf Stream.

Fire: Critical fire weather conditions due to low relative
humidities, winds near 15 mph and dry fuels across South Florida.
The greatest risk is across inland Palm Beach, metro and inland
areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, along with Collier and
Mainland Monroe Counties, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. For
Hendry, Glades and the immediate coastal area of east-coast counties,
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for near-critical fire weather
conditions.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist into Friday across
interior and western areas through late in the week.

The risk of rip currents will remain elevated across the Atlantic
beaches at least into the weekend with onshore flow and southward-
building swell.

An active weather pattern is likely to develop by the latter part of
the weekend. There is a risk for flooding and/or strong
thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday. Keep up with the latest
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.