Hail in Florida, May 28, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Strong stacked ridging resides over the Western Atlantic.
Meanwhile, a closed upper level trough currently over Arkansas
will lift northeast and merge with a secondary trough digging over
the Great Lakes region.

For today, the low level ridge axis will be over SWFL with weak
southerly/southwesterly flow over the area. Abundant moisture
(PWAT values above 90th percentile) near 2.00 inches will provide
us with with a well primed environment for heavy rain. Dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s and strong surface heating will result in
mixed-layer CAPE near the max moving average for late May. This
afternoon, enhanced surface convergence along the sea breeze
boundaries will fire off scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms likely along a line extending from Sumter to eastern
Lee county. Storm motion/evolution will then begin to take on
their typical outflow driven propagation with some storms likely
surviving well into the late evening hours. Nevertheless, highs
in the low 90s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (making it feel
in excess of 100 degrees), and afternoon thunderstorms will give
us good taste of summer.

Tomorrow, surface ridging will build slightly and move north,
bringing more of a southerly/southeasterly flow to our area. This
will favor rain chances a little bit farther west towards the I-75
corridor. By Saturday, 1000mb-700mb flow becomes light and
variable so initial storm development will be favored across the
spine of the peninsula. Later on Saturday, a weak upper level
trough stretched across the panhandle through the carolinas will
push eastward. At the surface, an associated weak frontal boundary
will sag south into the Big Bend of FL by Sunday morning.
Westerly low-level flow will usher in relatively drier air which
will limit rain and thunderstorm coverage some, especially for our
western counties.

This front will be very weak and nearly stalled out across our
area on Sunday before very broad surface high pressure builds
across the eastern half of the CONUS. This reinforcing high
pressure will push it south-southwestward as a backdoor front.
This will bring breezy easterly winds to the area by Monday Night
or Tuesday and much drier air. Model difference vary somewhat as
to whether the drier air will fully make it south of the area. At
this time, there will still be some rain chances south of I-4
through mid-week but we can expect less oppressive dewpoints and
high temps in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop
this afternoon with VCTS indicated at all terminals and prevailing
southwest winds. MVFR TEMPO cigs/vsby have been introduced to all
TAF sites for thunderstorms, with the exception of TPA, PIE, and
SRQ. Showers/thunderstorms will push westward later this evening.
Mostly VFR conditions with light and variable winds return
tonight. LAL may see a period of MVFR or perhaps IFR cigs
overnight, however.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds turning onshore today with the sea breeze
development. Showers and storms may push back west over the waters
later this evening. Otherwise, surface high pressure will
continue to build over the Gulf waters keeping mostly calm seas
and tranquil boating conditions through Monday. However, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds, and rough
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ample moisture will preclude any major fire weather concerns
through the weekend with overall weak winds. Daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning
and gusty winds from outflow boundaries.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  89  75  89 /  30  60  20  40
FMY  73  91  74  89 /  50  60  30  40
GIF  72  89  72  88 /  40  70  20  70
SRQ  73  89  74  88 /  30  40  20  30
BKV  70  90  70  90 /  30  60  20  50
SPG  74  90  75  89 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
247 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

FLZ043-281930-
Sumter FL-
247 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lady Lake to near Bushnell. Movement was
east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wildwood, Bushnell, Lake Panasoffkee, Center Hill, Webster, Coleman,
Adamsville, Wahoo, Tarrytown, Sumterville and Oxford.

LAT...LON 2851 8196 2854 8209 2863 8221 2872 8219
      2896 8202 2896 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 275DEG 8KT 2890 8196 2863 8211

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             5 ENE WILDWOOD          28.89N 81.97W
05/28/2020  E0.25 INCH       SUMTER             FL   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE VILLAGES.

&&

TF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
340 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

FLZ043-248-249-282030-
Inland Hernando FL-Inland Pasco FL-Sumter FL-
340 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...EASTERN
PASCO AND SOUTHEASTERN HERNANDO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Bushnell to near
Zephyrhills West. These storms were nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Zephyrhills, Dade City, Bushnell, St. Leo, Zephyrhills West,
Zephyrhills North, Zephyrhills South, Wesley Chapel South, Ridge
Manor, San Antonio, Center Hill, Webster, Saint Leo, Zephyrhills
Municipal Airport, Wesley Chapel, Tarrytown, Richland, Blanton,
Lacoochee and Dade City North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2870 8211 2876 8195 2831 8196 2831 8199
      2832 8202 2832 8205 2826 8206 2826 8211
      2819 8211 2818 8212 2818 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 273DEG 3KT 2859 8203 2827 8223

TBW