Small clusters of thunderstorms moved northward from Arkansas, producing heavy rain. One of the strongest storms produced large hail and isolated wind damage in the Ozark foothills.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Small clusters of thunderstorms moved northward from Arkansas, producing heavy rain. One of the strongest storms produced large hail and isolated wind damage in the Ozark foothills. The storms occurred just ahead of a cold front that extended from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Ozark plateau of western Missouri. The moist southerly wind flow was accompanied by dew points in the mid 60's, contributing to weak instability sufficient for active convection.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 1:29 AM CST, 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 229 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 A synoptic surface boundary to our southwest separates drier air behind it, with dew points in the 50s and lower 60s, with the higher feed of moist dew points in the mid and upper 60s prevalant across the bulk of our FA. This boundary will drift eastward with time, as the cut-off Low pressure system it is attached to drifts east and opens/folds up and is enveloped within the northern stream, which ultimately scours it on across the FA with passage by weeks end. Other than components of the Low aloft assisting lift, the primary trigger will simply be diurnal heating, so relatively high overall pops will maintain the persistent breathing signal of highest pm pops waning (mostly) at night, again with the Low offering some relative deviation from that mean by maintaing pops in its vicinity, including the night as well (as is ongoing). Humid temperatures will top out around 80 today and tmrw, then retreat into a drier/more pleasant mid 70s in the post system airmass for Saturday. Similarly, muggy lows in the 60s dive down into drier 50s by Friday night. Dew points in the 60s start to fall off as early as Friday afternoon, showing a northwest to southeast invasion on the backside of the departing Low/system. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Little impactful weather to discuss in the long term. Forecast confidence is higher than average with good model agreement. The period will start off with northwest flow across the region, with an upper level ridge over the Plains and a trough in the east. At the surface, high pressure will migrate southeast from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. This will keep dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast through Monday night. While a good deal of sunshine is expected through the weekend, sky cover may be a bit higher in coverage across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as mid/high level clouds stream southeast from warm frontal convection in the Missouri Valley. Warmer temperatures will arrive next week as southerly winds develop on the back side of the departing surface high. However, dry weather should continue as the upper level ridge builds east from the Plains. There is some indication that energy topping the ridge may suppress it enough to the south to allow for a small chance of thunder by Wednesday night and Thursday, but that's a low probability outcome at this point. Expect a warming trend through the period. Highs should moderate from the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday into the middle 80s on Tuesday and upper 80s by Wednesday. Lows are forecast to warm from the middle to upper 50s Sunday and Monday nights into the middle 60s Tuesday night and upper 60s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Flight restrictions are possible in MVFR cigs over western KY and southwest IN with shower activity early today. Otherwise, a diurnally breathing signal for showers/storms is expected, with the pm hours thus offering the best chance of flight restrictions due to thunderstorms. Greater reductions in vsbys/cigs with stronger storms may be more prevalant west (KCGI), closer to the proximity of the low pressure system drifting this direction. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 350 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 350 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms are forecast tonight. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially after midnight. This heavy rain may lead to very isolated flooding issues over parts of southeast Illinois and west Kentucky, where copious amounts of rain fell earlier on Wednesday. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A chance of thunderstorms is forecast across the outlook area during the day on Thursday with a slight chance across west Kentucky Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Smith
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 162 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:30 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were down, and one shed was destroyed due to a fallen tree. There was also a little damage to the roof of a mobile home.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 885046, 885045.