Wildfire in Florida, May 22, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
108 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

.AVIATION...[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop over inland areas as the
seabreezes move inland and merge near the I-75 corridor by around
00Z. Best chances of TSRA at TAF sites will be at GNV between 21z-00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [909 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The area will be situated on the western periphery of a stacked
ridge of high pressure today. Over north-central Florida, the
1000-700mb flow will be light and mostly from the southeast, with
flow over the Suwannee Valley more south-southwesterly. This
convergent flow, along with instability inland from temperatures
warming up to the low-mid 90s today is anticipated to kick up both
an Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreeze in the afternoon. The highest
coverage of thunderstorms along the I-75 corridor where the two
fronts are most likely to converge. Storms will continue into the
evening hours. Overnight, temperatures will gradually fall into
low 70s to upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Over the course of the weekend, the upper level low situated near
north central Appalachia will move off to the east into the
Atlantic with high pressure ridging building in over southeastern
Georgia and northeastern Florida. This will lead to a mostly hot
and dry weekend, with daily high temperatures reaching into the
lower to mid 90s with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees in some
areas. There are chances for isolated storms building in the
afternoon and evening hours over inland areas in conjunction with
the passage of the diurnal sea breeze.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

A high pressure ridge over the eastern US will ensure a
predominantly easterly wind flow over the forecast area throughout
the coming week, ensuring that the east coast sea breeze is able
to press further inland. Potential for daily occurring convection
throughout the week with the highest chances for scattered storms
taking place along the diurnal sea breeze over inland areas.
Temperatures will become closer to the seasonal average next week
with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s for inland areas and
in the mid to lower 80s along the coastline.

.MARINE...

Long period swells will continue to decrease and as a result,
waves offshore should gradually lower through the day. Small craft
should exercise caution offshore with waves around 6 feet.
Southerly winds will continue through the weekend, then become
easterly early next week as high pressure builds to our north.
Expect daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with
the afternoon seabreeze for the next several days.

Rip currents: SE GA: Moderate risk Today and Low risk Saturday
              NE FL: High risk Today and Moderate risk Saturday

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and mostly dry conditions will prevail today and Saturday.
Widely scattered afternoon and evening storms will be possible
over inland areas as the seabreeze moves inland. Light
southwesterly winds will shift about to become more out of the
southeast during the afternoon hours over eastern areas.

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the
period as our summer seabreeze pattern returns. Overall rainfall
accumulations should be around 1" or less over the next week, so
no widespread flooding or river flooding is anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  92  66  92  70  92 /  30  40  40  10  30
SSI  83  71  86  72  87 /   0  20  10  10  20
JAX  92  69  92  71  92 /  20  20  20  10  20
SGJ  89  70  89  70  88 /  10  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  68  94  69  92 /  50  40  30  20  30
OCF  95  68  94  69  92 /  50  40  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.

&&