Wildfire in Florida, May 1 to 4, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
731 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

.Aviation...

Showers have ended, and prevailing dry/VFR is anticipated. SW
winds this evening will veer N-NW overnight and N-NNE by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.Update...

Showers and thunderstorms are well offshore, and generally dry
weather is expected tonight, outside of a few showers associated
with the cold front now pushing through the Lake Okeechobee
region. Thunder chances have been removed from the forecast, and
weather elements were updated based on the latest observational
data and a consensus of the high resolution forecast models. The
forecast is on track.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020/

Short Term (Rest of This Afternoon through Tomorrow)...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward into the
Atlantic waters through the rest of the afternoon hours. Most of
the stronger storms have pushed offshore into the Atlantic
waters, however, there could still be some stronger activity down
across southern areas of Miami Dade county this afternoon. Gusty
winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with
these storms. Behind the front, an area of high pressure will
begin to build into the region ushering in a drier air mass later
tonight and into tomorrow. Winds tonight will shift around to the
northwest and cooler air will move into the region as well. Lows
tonight will drop into the lower to mid 50s across the
northwestern interior to the mid to upper 60s across the east
coast. The winds will still have a northerly component during the
day on Friday, however, they will start to shift to the northeast
later in the day. This will allow for high temperatures tomorrow
to rise into the lower 80s across the east coast and into the
upper 80s across the interior sections.

Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
A large area of high pressure to the north will continue to build
across the area as the axis of this ridge pushes through South
Florida. This will allow for dry conditions across the region
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as well.
Winds will shift around to more of an east to southeasterly
direction over the weekend and the flow will remain east
southeasterly through early next week. High temperatures during
this time frame will will slowly moderate each day as they will
rise into the mid to upper 80s across the east coast to the lower
to mid 90s across the interior sections. Both of the GFS and the
ECMWF show the wind flow shifting around to more of a south to
southwesterly direction by the middle of the week as a frontal
boundary located to the north slowly advances south. This will
allow for warmer high temperatures during the middle of the week
as they will rise into the lower 90s across the east coast metro
areas to the mid 90s across the interior section.

Marine...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the Atlantic and
southern Gulf waters through the evening hours as a cold front
moves through the region. After the front moves through, an area
of high pressure will begin to build into the region later tonight
and into tomorrow. Winds will shift to the northwest tonight
across the local waters before shifting to a more northeasterly
direction later tomorrow. Waves tonight and tomorrow across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally range between 2 to 4 feet.

Aviation...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward this
afternoon and into early this evening. MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur in showers and thunderstorms across the east coast terminals
this afternoon. Behind the front, winds tonight will shift around
to the northwest across all terminals as drier conditions move
into the region. These winds will start to shift around to the
northeast on Friday morning.

Beach Forecast...
The risk of rip currents will begin to decrease across the
Atlantic waters tonight as the winds shift to a northwesterly
direction. The risk of rip currents will begin to increase once
again over the weekend.

Fire Weather...
A cold front currently pushing through the region this afternoon
will have moved through the entire area during the evening hours.
Behind the front, an area of high pressure will build into South
Florida later tonight and tomorrow. This will usher in much drier
conditions to the region for tomorrow. Minimum relative humidity
values will drop below critical levels tomorrow afternoon across
the interior sections. Minimum relative humidity values will drop
into the lower 30s again on Saturday and Sunday across the western
interior sections.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  61  81  65  83 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  65  83  69  82 /  10   0   0   0
Miami            65  85  68  84 /  10   0   0   0
Naples           63  82  63  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...34/SPM
Discussion...55/CWC

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
521 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
010930-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
521 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

...High Risk of Rip Currents Along the Palm Beaches Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip current across the Palm
Beach beaches tonight and a moderate risk across the Broward, Miami
Dade, and Collier county beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The risk of rip currents will decrease by Friday with an elevated
risk returning for northern portions of palm beach county by the
weekend. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time
through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.