Mid level short wave trough energy tracked across the region and combined with intense daytime heating and abundant moisture produced thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The best instability resided along and southeast of line from Homerville to Ponte Vedra where CAPES were maximized near 3000-3700 J/kg in the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Mid level short wave trough energy tracked across the region and combined with intense daytime heating and abundant moisture produced thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The best instability resided along and southeast of line from Homerville to Ponte Vedra where CAPES were maximized near 3000-3700 J/kg in the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 12:42 PM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Thursday] Gulf of Mexico sea breeze front convection is on track and headed for the coastal waters south of St Augustine. Other sea breeze front convection should form near I-75 then move east this afternoon. The MCS/MCV from nrn Al/MS this morning is currently over western GA and southern Al with the strongest convection near Dothan. Still expect that convection to move across the region overnight. Have kept the convection minimal at the fields with BKN 3-5 kft CBs and 4-5sm in TSRA. Future shifts may need to amend based on developing conditions. SPC has upgraded the severe threat to Marginal just northwest and west of the main TAF fields (over south GA and the FL-GA state line). && .PREV DISCUSSION [832 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Today will be another hazy, hot and humid day with heat index values of 100 to 105F. Some convection may develop along the Gulf Sea Breeze front and move generally eastward with the synoptic flow around the ridge axis. This should be widely scattered during the day with a 20-30 percent probability. For this evening, a mesoscale convective system over northern Mississippi and Alabama will drop southeast toward the region late this afternoon and overnight. This should give us an early round of 4th of July fireworks into the night time hours and especially for the beaches. Expect the system to... 1. be cross the Altamaha River about 6 p.m. 2. move across most of Southeast Georgia between 8 and 10 p.m. 3.then across extreme south GA and along the FL-GA state line through midnight 4. then crossing into north Florida between midnight and 6 a.m. The system is strongest in GA and then begins to weaken and break up over Florida. 50-60 POPs over Southeast Georgia and extreme north Florida and 20-40 POPs over most of the rest of north Florida overnight. A few storms may be strong especially along the leading edge. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]... Unsettled pattern continues with a surface and upper-level trough digging down the east coast into the southeast and lingering over the region. A series of shortwaves will move along the base of the trough enhancing lift across the area. Plentiful summertime heating combined with the rich moisture and enhanced lift aloft will lead to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime highs will begin to slightly lower with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot and humid conditions will continue to produce afternoon heat indices near 105F on Thursday. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday]... A low to mid level low pressure system develops over the northeastern Gulf states this weekend. Models differ on the handling of this low. GFS quickly spins up the low over our area and then strengthens it off our east coast this weekend. Whereas the ECMWF develops a weak low and has it linger over the area and moving eastward early next week. Either solution will still keep ample moisture and lift over the area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue into early next week. Tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ inches) across the area will continue the threat of heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. .MARINE... High pressure ridge to the south and troughing to the north will maintain a west to southwesterly flow the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous through the weekend as an upper level trough develops over the southeast. Rip Currents: Low risk through today and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 90 72 89 73 / 40 50 40 80 20 SSI 75 90 76 87 76 / 60 70 50 60 30 JAX 74 93 74 91 74 / 40 60 40 80 20 SGJ 74 92 74 90 74 / 20 50 50 80 20 GNV 74 92 73 90 73 / 10 60 40 80 30 OCF 75 91 74 91 74 / 10 70 50 70 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
124 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020
FLZ037-038-138-011800-
Coastal Flagler FL-Putnam FL-Inland Flagler FL-
124 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...
* At 123 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Crescent City, moving east at 30 mph.
* Winds of 40 to 45 mph are possible with this storm.
* Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Crescent City, Andalusia,
Beverly Beach and Espanola.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 2947 8108 2946 8112 2943 8111 2942 8114
2941 8115 2927 8115 2926 8141 2940 8142
2940 8143 2938 8145 2935 8156 2953 8157
2961 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 267DEG 26KT 2945 8147
CORLESSThe Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 126 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:50 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A brief funnel cloud was observed near 28th Street in Flagler Beach. The convection moved east over the ocean and the funnel dissipated.
A tree was blown down onto power lines along 1250 Belle Terre Parkway. The cost of damage was estimated for Storm Data.
Power lines were blown down near Cisco and Jones Roads due to tree branches blown int the lines.
Power lines were blown down near Martin Luther King Jr Parkway.
Power lines and tree branches were blown down near Live Oak Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 894645, 894646, 894647, 894648, 894649.