High Wind in California, May 14 to 15, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
845 AM PDT Thu May 14 2020

.UPDATE...Increased sky cover north of Fresno county and at the
south end of the San Joaquin Valley for today and lowered max
temperatures slightly.  No other changes made to the short term
forecast.

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to slightly above average temperatures and breezy west winds
will prevail over the region through Saturday before another
Pacific weather system moves into the area Sunday through early
next week. Dry weather will prevail through the first part of the
weekend with cool and unsettled conditions developing thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The zonal (west to east) flow aloft continues to provide breezy
conditions in much of Central California with locally gusty winds
in the eastern Kern County mountains and desert through and below
the passes and canyons at this time. A few spots continue to
report gusts around 45 to near 60 miles per hour in the mountains
of eastern Kern County during these overnight hours. Some gusty
winds will likely persist in these localized areas at times
through this evening as some upper-level shortwave impulses pass
overhead. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain
relatively cool with passing low and mid-level clouds at times
this morning. Expect slightly warmer daytime highs by this
afternoon and on Friday, though temperatures are expected to
remain near seasonal averages. However, occasional cloud cover
could even redevelop over some of the mountain areas tonight into
Friday morning due to the impulses. More noticeable warming is in
store by Saturday as a weak upper-level ridge passes over the
region. This ridge will quickly move eastward with another low
pressure system soon to follow.

The upper-level low and associated trough is expected to approach
Northern CA and the Pacific Northwest by late Saturday night and
continue digging southward into Sunday. This system will likely
push an initial band of moisture into the SF Bay Area during
Sunday morning and into our portion of Central California by the
afternoon. Chances for showers will begin from Merced County
towards Yosemite by late Sunday morning and into the afternoon,
and moisture will spread further southward on Sunday evening
through Monday morning.

It appears Monday could be an active day as the upper-level
trough swings inland into Central CA. The bulk of the moisture is
expected from Fresno County northward, and the heaviest
precipitation will likely occur over the Sierra and foothills,
especially towards Yosemite. Otherwise, some light precipitation
could fall just about anywhere in our forecast area, with a slight
chance over Kern County. The upper-level low could pass near
Yosemite or slightly to the north on Monday night into Tuesday so
that the  could become cold and unstable. This instability may be
sufficient to produce some brief moderate to heavy showers with
isolated thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening, mainly
over the Sierra Nevada and foothills, as well as over eastern
portions of the San Joaquin Valley from Fresno County northward.
Unsettled conditions will likely persist into Tuesday with some
instability possible again over the Sierra and foothills, mainly
over Tulare County to Yosemite, as the upper level low gradually
moves eastward into the Great Basin. Snow levels are projected to
be relatively high with the bulk of the precipitation on Monday,
or above 7500 feet. On Tuesday, snow levels could potentially
lower a bit more with the passage of the upper-level low, although
precipitation amounts are projected to decrease at this time.
Rain and mountain snow will likely continue until Tuesday evening
with lingering showers possible into early Wednesday morning.

By the middle of next week, the trough is projected to pass from
the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies with precipitation
mainly east of the Sierra. However, west to northwest flow aloft
will continue over our region and will likely result in
relatively cool temperatures to persist until at least Wednesday.
It does not appear we will see strong high pressure returning
real soon, or at least not for much of next week, so temperatures
may be slow to warm after midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings can be expected along the north facing slopes of the
Tehachapi mountains until 21z today with improvement to VFR
thereafter.  Occasional wind gusts around 40 knots are possible over
the ridges and through and below the Kern County mountain passes
today and this evening, or until around 07Z Friday. VFR conditions
will otherwise prevail across the Central CA interior for the next
24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

public/aviation/fire wx...Durfee/BSO
PIO/IDSS...............DS

weather.gov/hanford