Heavy rain brought flooding to the White, Cache, and Fourche LaFave Rivers.
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The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White, Cache, and Fourche LaFave Rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 18, 11:25 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 .UPDATE... Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... A variety of flight conditions will be in place through the period with ceilings varying along with vsby at times due to periodic RA/TSRA activity. S-SW winds will be above 10kts throughout the period with some gusts in the 20-25kt range at times. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 652 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020) AVIATION...19/00Z TAF CYCLE Warm front has shifted to the N of the FA. Expect a combo of VFR/MVFR CIGS thru much of the overnight hrs. Lower CIGS wl form toward daybreak ovr much of the area, with best rain chcs focused acrs N AR. Incrs S winds on Thu, VFR conds returning by Thu aftn. Organized convection wl affect the FA beyond this fcst PD. /44/ PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 319 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020) Short Term...Tonight thru Friday... Quite a bit going on in the short term at the moment. A trof over the western US will be sending shortwaves out across the area during the period, and these waves will be attenuating and lifting over the midsection of the country as the mean mid level flow tries to flatten out and become more zonal over time. Cyclogenesis on the lee of the Rockies is spinning up a low across the southern Plains this afternoon, and this has helped a warm front lift to the north across the area. A vigorous 60kt low level jet will set up across NE Texas and eastern OK overnight, extending into the western and northern AR. Models are indicating a strong cluster of convection overnight into the eastern portions of OK and western AR. FFG values are rather low in these areas, and it appears that some flash flooding could occur. As a result, a flood watch is being issued for the western and northern counties thru tomorrow. The watch may need to be reconfigured and expanded to the east tomorrow. A cold front will be pushing in from the west tomorrow afternoon as the surface low advances to the east. There is a concern for possible severe weather ahead and along the cold front. Low level surface winds will be primarily out of the south, with strong southwesterly winds aloft. While there will be some directional shear, speed shear will probably be more of an issue. In addition, pockets of CAPE values will top out above 1500 j/kg. BRN values favor the potential for supercells developing out and ahead of the front, with the system evolving to a QLCS by the evening. With the strong winds aloft, I am certainly concerned about the potential for bowing segments and wind damage. Long term...Friday night through Wednesday Medium range models, which were showing considerable spread earlier in the week, have come back into better agreement. As such, will use a blend of forecast solutions with a lean towards the slightly more consistent ECMWF. Models continue to advertise a progressive pattern with additional chances of precipitation in the forecast. A frontal boundary will be located to the southeast of the state when the period initiates with rain chances continuing over mainly the southeast. As the front pushes through and Canadian high pressure settles in, very chilly air will sweep in. There will be the possibility of sub freezing temperatures across the north by Saturday morning but no rain is expected on Saturday so there is that. The dry period does not last very long as the high tracks off to the east on Sunday. The aforementioned front will begin to lift back to the north as an upper level disturbance moves in from the west. Return flow around the high will provide enough moisture that showers will be possible. Unsettled conditions will continue early next week as another storm system moves into the nations mid section. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the end of the period with temperatures climbing to above normal. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Baxter-Boone-Johnson- Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Yell. && Aviation...67
Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated National Weather Service Little Rock AR 525 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 525 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday The pattern will remain unsettled through much of the period, with periodic rain and chances of thunderstorms. Through early next week, one to more than three inches of rain could occur. Tributaries are already high, including portions of the Black, Cache, Ouachita, and lower White Rivers. Additional heavy rain will keep these rivers elevated, and susceptible to larger flood issues if rain does not let up in the coming weeks. Precipitation will be most widespread and organized Thursday afternoon and during the nighttime hours as a cold front sweeps through the region from the Plains. Some severe weather is possible with the front, with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. Heavy downpours may lead to flash flooding in places. The amount of heating that occurs ahead of the front on Thursday is in question given clouds and some rain during the day. Also, the main energy with the front will go well to the north of the region and will weaken with time. These factors may limit how much severe weather occurs locally. Breezy south to southwest winds will be noted ahead of the front. Wind speeds will average 15 to 25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph. Cooler air will follow the aforementioned front Friday into the weekend. A freeze is likely in parts of the Ozark Mountains Saturday morning. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed at this time. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 230/46
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Fourche LaFave River at Houston on 3/19/20.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River at Georgetown on 3/19/20.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson on 3/19/20.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River again at Georgetown on 3/23/20.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 880723, 880720, 880722, 880721.