Flash Flooding and Hail in Arkansas, February 9 to 12, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

.AVIATION...

Showers have continued to become more widespread through the
afternoon with a few rumbles of thunder currently being seen.
Precipitation will continue to become more widespread with
ceilings lowering through the overnight hours. LLWS will be
possible at all terminals during the overnight hours, but should
relax a bit after 12z. Cold front will move through the state with
the wind shifting out of the NW on Monday with precip lingering
through the end of the TAF period in the SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 143 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

SRLY winds have increased across the area early this
afternoon...with moisture levels on the rise as a warm front lifts
north. Some scattered SHRA have been noted across WRN into NRN
sections of the CWA this morning into the afternoon hrs...with just
increased cloudiness seen elsewhere. SFC obs and radar imagery show a
cold front to the NW over SERN KS. This front will drop SE into the
state this evening.

As the cold front progresses SE into the state overnight...SHRA will
become more widespread...with some isolated TSRA possible mainly
along the frontal boundary. While the threat for SVR Wx is low...a
strong storm or two may be possible across SWRN sections of the area
overnight.

By sunrise Mon...the cold front will be moving through the central
portion of the CWA...dropping SE of the CWA by late afternoon and
early evening. SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue along either
side of this front as it progresses SE throughout the day...with
chances for precip decreasing across the NWRN counties over time.
The overall threat for seeing SVR Wx looks to remain low...but
cannot rule out an isolated strong storm across the SRN portion of
the area on Mon. There could also be some locally heavy rainfall
with this activity.

By Mon night into early Tue...the front looks to slow just SE of the
state...with upper level disturbances passing over this front. This
will result in continued high chances for SHRA and isolated TSRA
across far SERN sections of the area...where the main focus will
turn to some potential heavy rainfall. Current data suggests
rainfall amounts through Tue afternoon on the order of 2 to 3 inches
across the far SERN counties...with lesser amounts NW. Given the 6
hr flash flood guidance is on the order of 3 to 4 inches...and the
storm total accumulation is near or below this 6 hr guidance...will
hold off on posting any headlines regarding a flash flood watch.
Even so...some isolated flash flooding may still be possible across
SERN sections of the state Mon into early Tue.

Precip coverage looks to decrease during the daylight hrs on
Tue...but a new wave of SHRA will be developing late Tue morning
through the afternoon hrs as an upper level wave lifts NE over the
state. This increased coverage of SHRA looks to continue into the
first part of the long term period.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Much of the long term portion of the forecast remains unsettled,
with chances for rain present almost every day due to several vort
maxes and frontal boundaries affecting the region.

The period will start with high pressure over portions of the Gulf
of Mexico and Atlantic, and an upper level low over the southern
Desert Southwest region moving eastward towards the Natural State.
The high pressure will act as a blocking mechanism, forcing the low
to transition into a shortwave trough and push northeastward through
the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold
front will swing through the state on Thursday, bringing much drier
and colder air to the state.

Brief high pressure will build over the state at the end of the week
and into the weekend, which will help provide more tranquil weather
conditions. However, this will be short lived as another short wave
trough approaches from the west and returns chances for rain to the
state late Saturday/Sunday.

Temperatures will be mostly mild with highs generally in the 40s and
50s, and lows ranging from the 20s to 40s. However, there may be a
few instances during the period where temperatures fall near/below
freezing with lingering moisture in place. This could result in some
brief wintry precipitation, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, at this time measurable accumulation is not expected, and
impacts should remain minor.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
835 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
835 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into
the overnight period. However...the threat for seeing any strong
to severe thunderstorms looks low at this time. Some locally
heavy rainfall may be seen...mainly across portions of southeast
Arkansas late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Unsettled weather will prevail through the middle of the week.
Several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
across the area. The heaviest rainfall will affect parts of
southeast Arkansas, in the vicinity of a stalled front, where
localized flash flooding will be possible.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.