Several rounds of rain moved across east-central Arkansas late in 2020. A few roads were flooded across Phillips County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Several rounds of rain moved across east-central Arkansas late in 2020. A few roads were flooded across Phillips County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:51 AM CST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1151 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 .UPDATE... See the 18z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1101 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020/ UPDATE... A cold and wet morning across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower to upper 40s over north Mississippi. Latest KNQA radar scan shows light to moderate showers right along the I-40 corridor, with dry conditions to the north. MRMS 24 hour QPE shows a wide swath of 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall along the I-40 corridor, with lesser amounts to the north and south. Latest Hi-res models show the current precipitation lifting north through late afternoon, with mainly dry conditions returning through early evening. Temperatures are only expected to warm a few degrees this afternoon, with most places only reaching the 40s under heavy cloud cover. Rain showers are expected to redevelop to our southwest around the 8-9 pm timeframe as the surface low lifts across the ArkLaTex tonight. This will push the stalled cold front back north as a warm front near the Tennessee and Mississippi borders. Much of north Mississippi and even portions of SE Arkansas will be placed in the warm sector after midnight. Latest CAMs show broken line segments coming up the Delta between 3 and 7 AM on New Year's day. This will be the typical low CAPE and high shear event, with the potential for a few marginal storms to develop. At this point, damaging wind gusts are the main threat, with an isolated weak tornado possible over north Mississippi through daybreak. The current HWO covers this threat well at this time. SPC has pushed the Marginal Risk all the way up to the TN and MS border, which is consistent with our current forecast. Lowered high temperatures across the north and adjusted the curve to represent the warming temperatures this evening. The rest of the forecast is in good shape. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020/ Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to upper 40s. A large area of mainly light rain covers much of the Mid-South at this time. A cold front is just south of the Mid-South with an area of low pressure along the front over extreme south Texas. This surface low will move northeast today reaching east Texas by late this afternoon. This will pull the cold front north some into extreme southern sections of the Mid-South. As a result, more rain will continue to move across the region today. Temperatures will be on the cool side today with the front remaining south with highs today from the upper 30s to lower 60s. Tonight, the surface low will continue to move northeast reaching eastern Arkansas overnight. This will help drag the cold front northward as a warm front through much of the region. More rain will move across the region tonight but once the warm front moves through, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mid-South. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe across extreme southern sections of the Mid-South with damaging winds as the main threat. Temperatures will depend on where the warm front is with lows Friday morning from the mid 30s to the mid 50s. On Friday, the surface low will lift north into the Ohio Valley with rain and scattered thunderstorms moving out of the region during the morning. Drier and eventually cooler air will begin to move into the region in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite warm on Friday before the cooler air arrives with highs on Friday from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees. High pressure will build into the region Friday night and will bring a period of dry weather across the Mid-South from Friday night through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be below normal for the weekend with a warming trend starting on Monday. A cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday bringing a chance of rain for Wednesday afternoon and evening. ARS && .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ Yuck. IFR ceilings, 2-4 SM visibility, and rain will continue through the overnight period, though we do anticipate a bit of a lull in rainfall this afternoon. Northeast winds at 10-12 kts will gradually veer more easterly this evening, shifting from the south early Friday as a warm front lifts across the Mid-South. There is a potential for thunder along/south of I-40 so VCTS was retained at MEM/TUP (may be needed at MKL). Low clouds may clear out for a few hours early Friday behind the warm front but will likely fill back in by midday. Rain chances will be greatest through tonight, ending from southwest to northeast tomorrow morning. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 316 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011130- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 316 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight through daybreak New Year's Day over portions of north Mississippi. Damaging winds are the main threat with a secondary threat of an isolated tornado. Locally heavy rainfall is possible today and tonight with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible. This may produce minor flooding, especially in low lying areas and poor drainage locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Arkansas Department of Transportation reported Highway 85 was closed for approximately 10 miles from Highway 44 to Highway 49. Highway 318 was closed for approximately five miles from Highway 85 to Highway 44, west of Helena - West Helena due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 934634.