Winter Weather in Arkansas, December 2 to 3, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
529 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

.AVIATION...Updated w/ a discussion for the 03/00Z TAFs

SCT -RA continues to move into Wrn AR this evening w/ MVFR CIGs
noted along the AR/OK border. VFR condns will begin the PD,
however as precip becomes more widespread, CIGs will rapidly
deteriorate to IFR status w/ persistent OVC CIGs anticipated
through Thurs afternoon. Most notably, across the N, including HRO
and BPK, a potential for a wintry mix precip event remains in the
fcst, and have kept -RASN wx groups included in this TAF cycle.
For all other terminals, -RA will lkly be the dominant precip and
the wintry mix to the N is expected to become all liquid again
after dawn Thurs morning. Winds will remain Erly through much of
the PD before backing to become more Nrly by the end of the fcst
PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 235 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

A cold 500mb low over northern TX and OK will track to the east
across Arkansas over the next few days, with a surface low pressure
system tracking through the southern U.S. Satellite and radar data
show cloud cover and rainfall being drawn into the low center from
the NW gulf through eastern TX, LA, and into western AR. Dry air
over much of central and eastern AR has kept rainfall confined to
the westernmost parts of the state so far today, but this rainfall
will eventually expand eastward over much of the state through
Wednesday night providing persistent rainfall across the state
overnight through Thursday.

Liquid precipitation will transition to a wintry mix in northern AR
with temperatures nearing freezing overnight and into Thursday
morning. A transition to all frozen precipitation will be
possible for a few hours early Thursday with subfreezing
temperatures expected in some of the higher elevated areas in the
Ozarks, as well as in the northernmost parts of the state. Liquid
precipitation is expected for the southern three-quarters of the
state with this system.

Isolated minor snowfall accumulations will be possible in the Ozarks
and the northernmost counties by Thursday morning, with up to one
inch possible. Any impacts related to winter precipitation are
expected to be localized if they do occur.

Dry air will get drawn into the low level flow from SW AR through
central and eastern AR as the system exits the state Thursday
afternoon. This will help end precipitation across the state by late
Thursday/early Friday morning. Forecast rainfall amounts up to an
inch will be possible over the western third of the state, with up
to half an inch forecast elsewhere with this system.

High temperatures through the period will be in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Fairly benign weather conditions anticipated through much of the
long term portion of the forecast. Medium to long range model
guidance is in good agreement regarding a lack of precipitation
through the middle of next week.

H500 flow will remain largely out of the N-NW with a few weak
systems traversing the state. At the surface, a dry cold front will
move across the state by later in the weekend with ridging building
over the region in its wake. Up until the end of the period, below
average temperatures are expected with several nights worth of near
or below freezing temps.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...GREEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
224 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
224 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Heading into tonight, rain may mix with or change to light snow
in portions of northern Arkansas, mainly in the Ozark Mountains.
The wintry mix will continue much of the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

A rain and snow mix is expected over the northern two to three rows
of counties Thursday morning, with rain farther south. Where snow
occurs, a dusting to as much as an inch of accumulation will be
possible. Given temperatures at or a little above freezing in
most areas, any travel impacts will be minor.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

COOPER/46/67