Hail in Arizona, June 16, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
400 PM MST Tue Jun 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms east of Tucson ending this
evening. Gusty winds late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening
for critical fire conditions. Otherwise, dry conditions Wednesday
into early next week with above average afternoon temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms generally from near
Clifton to near Bowie, and further southward to near Douglas at this
time. Any showers and thunderstorms should either move east of this
forecast area, or should dissipate within this forecast area, around
or shortly after sunset this evening. Gusty southwest to west winds
at lower elevations will also diminish this evening, but gusty winds
will continue tonight along ridgetops.

Various 16/12Z models depict a broad upper trough over the western
CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. The mid-level gradient will be
sufficiently tight to support gusty mainly southwest to west winds
especially during the late morning into early evening hours. Appears
wind speeds Wednesday will for the most part be slightly stronger
versus speeds achieved today.

Given the very low relative humidity and the expected gusty winds, a
Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of southeast Arizona 10 am to
8 pm MST Wednesday. Please refer to the Fire Weather section in this
product, as well as AWIPS product PHXRFWTWC / WMO header WWUS85 KTWC
/ for detail. Gusty southwest to west winds will also occur Thursday
afternoon, although speeds generally should not be quite as strong
as Wednesday.

Thereafter, the models remained consistent versus previous solutions
with regard to depicting an amplifying upper ridge over the southwest
CONUS Friday into early next week. Have noted that the ECMWF/ECENS
depict a weak cyclonic circulation feature that prevails just south
of this forecast area this weekend. However, the very dry regime
will preclude the potential for measurable rainfall from occurring
within this forecast area.

At any rate, the upshot from the building upper high is for
generally less surface wind Friday into early next week due to a
markedly relaxed mid/upper gradient. Daytime high temps will be
quite close to seasonal normals Wednesday through Saturday followed
by hotter temps especially next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA east of a KSAD-40W KDUG line ending 02Z-04Z
Wednesday. Brief gusts to 30-40 kts possible with TSRA. Otherwise,
west of KTUS SKC, then KTUS eastward SCT-BKN 14k ft MSL SKC-BKN 25k
ft this evening then clearing. SFC wind SWly/Wly 12-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts easing this evening to Sly 5 to 12 kts this evening.
SWly wind increasing late Wednesday morning to 14-23 kts with gusts
to 35 kts through the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds will ease up this evening with the
possible exception of the highest ridges which may remain breezy
well into the night.

For Wednesday, winds will pick up a bit more across the entire
forecast area teetering on either side of red flag conditions
depending on how favorable the local area is to SW winds. The
exception, the ridges which are expected to be solidly in Red Flag
criteria due to stronger winds aloft. After coordination with area
IMETs, decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for the entire area
rather than try to get cute picking out locations that explicitly
meet criteria given the background fuels state, again primarily for
the ridges.  Thankfully, Wednesday will be the windiest day in the
foreseeable future.

Thursday through Friday will have lighter winds with seasonal
temperatures and low humidity levels. Beyond that, getting hotter,
remaining dry with more typical June winds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ150.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ150>153.

&&

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION...Cerniglia
FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

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