Isolated thunderstorms developed over Cochise and Graham counties and moved northeast. One storm downed large tree branches in Saint David.
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The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed over Cochise and Graham counties and moved northeast. One storm downed large tree branches in Saint David.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 9:45 AM MST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 945 AM MST Tue Jul 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening favoring southeast of Tucson and across the White Mountains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should prevail Wednesday into early next week especially during afternoon and evening hours. Hotter than normal high temperatures through Thursday with daytime temperatures close to seasonal normals this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...IR/visible satellite imagery depicted a band of mid- level and mostly cirriform clouds extending generally from eastern Santa Cruz County/Cochise County northeastward toward the White Mountains at this time. Meanwhile, clear skies or a few cirrus clouds were noted elsewhere. The 14/12Z KTWC sounding precip water value of 1.36 inches was nearly identical to 24 hours ago. Some differences in the various stability parameters, but MLCAPE yielded just 40 J/kg. LCL-EL mean wind was 227 degs/14 kts. Various high resolution models including the U of A WRF-NAM and WRF- RR, and several HRRR solutions suggest isolated to perhaps scattered coverage of showers/tstms this afternoon/evening favoring portions if not much of Cochise County, and across the White Mtns. Some solutions suggest a few showers/tstms may encroach upon the far southeast part of the Tucson metro area (i.e. Vail) this afternoon. Showers/tstms are then depicted to more mainly northeastward and should mostly be east of this forecast area by around midnight. Curious to note a potential MCS encroaching upon far southeast sections late tonight, and least per WRF-NAM. At any rate, based on these solutions, there are no changes forthcoming regarding the inherited forecast precip chances for this afternoon and evening. High temps this afternoon will generally be around 5 degrees or so above normal. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for further detail. && .AVIATION...Valid through 15/18Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening southeast of KTUS, especially vicinity KDUG, KALK and KFHU. Other isolated -TSRA/-SHRA vicinity White Mtns northeast of KSAD. Expect bulk of any -TSRA/-SHRA to dissipate around 06Z-08Z Wednesday. Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds 10k- 15k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds above 20k ft MSL east to south of KTUS. West to northwest of KTUS FEW clouds above 20k ft MSL. Surface wind this evening sely/sly 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Surface wind variable in direction mainly under 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through the forecast period. Conditions are slightly less favorable today, with storms mainly southeast of Tucson and over the White Mountains. Activity looks to increase Wednesday into the weekend. Temperatures will ease back to slightly above normal levels by Friday. Relative humidities hold close to average through the week with generally good overnight recoveries. 20-ft winds generally remain less than 15 mph with some afternoon gustiness, although today will be breezier across the Upper Gila River Valley. Also, any afternoon/evening thunderstorms will capable of gusts to 45 mph or higher. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Showers over Cochise county have come to an end with the cloud cover slowly diminishing. For today, the environment is less favorable for convection over much of the area with drier SW flow aloft. So at this time I have limited the threat of convection to well southeast of the Tucson area for the afternoon and evening hours today. Still running rather warm with high temperatures peaking around 5 degrees warmer than average for the day. Then Wednesday onward the flow aloft becomes more southerly then eventually southeasterly at times with low level moisture increasing through time as well. This should set us up well for an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday afternoon through the coming weekend. It will also help to steadily trim the high temperatures each day to where we should finally be near average levels by Saturday. For this forecast package I trended pops upward a bit for most afternoon and evening periods especially southeast of the Tucson area into the solid chance category. Wednesday the bulk of the activity will be east of Tucson then Thursday into the weekend it shifts a bit further west. By the weekend, with an increase in precipitable water the storms should also be a bit more efficient in rainfall production. A quick look into the following week suggests more of the same, so the monsoon season finally looks to be getting into full swing. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 204 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020 AZZ509-511-142145- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham- 204 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MST... At 203 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Thatcher, or 10 miles southwest of Safford, moving northeast at 10 mph. Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Safford, Thatcher, Pima, Central and Frye Mesa Dam. LAT...LON 3270 10983 3280 10996 3293 10980 3282 10965 TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 242DEG 8KT 3277 10986 AH
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed several mesquite tree branches in Saint David.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 913212.