A quick-moving frontal band passed over the northeast gulf coast the morning hours of the 12th. A lack of cooling before the frontal arrived limited the snowfall accumulations over a wider area.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A quick-moving frontal band passed over the northeast gulf coast the morning hours of the 12th. A lack of cooling before the frontal arrived limited the snowfall accumulations over a wider area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 2:59 PM AKST, 9 hours 1 minute earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Tue Feb 11 2020
.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate the
next big system for the panhandle to be steadily approaching the
area,. This system is is progged to bring another round of winter
weather to SE Alaska. The primary uncertainty associated with
this system will be the timing of the rain/snow transition.
Although there is not currently a substantial cold pool in place
across the panhandle, temperatures should remain cool enough to
enable precip to start as snow late tonight across the region and
transition to rain from S to N through the day Wed, but there
remains some disagreement amongst guidance on when this will
occur. Guidance is notoriously too quick in timing the wind shift
to a more southern orientation over the N panhandle, and between a
slower wind shift and snow-melt cooling, chose to keep precip as
snow for N inner channels through much of the day on Wednesday.
The longer snow duration will result in higher accumulations
before precip transitions to liquid, and given the impressive QPF
associated with this system, it is looking increasingly likely
that winter weather products may be needed for much of the
northern panhandle, with substantial snow accumulations likely in
Haines, Gustavus, Juneau, and other locations in the vicinity.
However, given disagreement in how fast the temperatures will
warm up however, confidence in final snow totals is low. Southerly
gales will develop over the gulf tonight and expand into the inner
channels Wed. Depending on how the system develops, it is not
inconceivable that strong wind headlines may also be needed on
Wednesday, but held off for the time being.
The front will dissipate as it pushes inland and models somewhat
diverge with what happens to the parent low over the gulf.
Previous runs suggested the low would fill as it drifts SE through
Thu, but more recent synoptic guidance shows the low lingering on
and tracking across the S gulf before moving inland. The GFS and
the Euro have coalesced around a more southerly oriented track
that would take the low across Haida Gwaii and the Dixon entrance
on Thursday, while the NAM takes the low through the southern
panhandle. Given that the NAM appears to be trending southwards,
chose to blend towards the GFS and the EURO, and have reflected
that in the winds across the panhandle.
.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday / EC and
NAEFS ensembles are now in a bit better agreement in regards to
the general pattern for the late week and weekend time frame in
that yet another deep and cold trough will develop over the
interior of Alaska with a strong undercutting Pacific jet. This is
quite reminiscent of the pattern that dominated the last half of
January and led to several rounds of stormy conditions with
periods of heavy rain and snow. Split flow regime will make
individual storms quite hard to pin down and this is evidenced in
the extreme spread in the mid-range ensemble data for individual
systems. Exact position of the main baroclinic zone between the
developing very cold airmass over the interior and mild Pacific
air will also play havoc with the rain/snow line as periodic shots
of modified arctic air across the Gulf will precede each storm
approaching from the southern stream. Snow levels will remain low
but given the main trough axis will be fairly far to the west of
SE AK, think rain will predominate over the central and southern
Panhandle with precipitation type alternating between rain and
snow across the north. Overall confidence is high that
precipitation will be widespread through the remainder of the
extended forecast but much lower in all other details.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ025.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon AKST Wednesday for
AKZ020-021.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKST
Wednesday for AKZ017.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034>036-041>043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-033-053.
&&
GFS/DEL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS employee estimated 6 inches of snow had fallen from the frontal band before the temperature warmed and the precipitation changed to rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 873494.