What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 2, 3:13 AM AKST, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 3:13 AM AKST, 4 hours 47 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
413 AM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
The progressive weather pattern continues for northern Alaska as a
series of weather systems moves across. A front pushing across
the Western Interior early this morning will continue into the
central and eastern Interior today. A second system moving onto
the West Coast this evening and to the Interior on Friday will
bring snowfall. A third system will be on it’s heels moving onto
the West Coast Friday night into Sunday bringing the potential
for heavy snowfall and strong winds to the West Coast and Western
Interior.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 558 dam ridge over the Canadian Archipelago
with the ridge axis stretching southwest to Tok will move eastward
today and weaken. A 506 dam longwave trough is centered over far
northwest Chukotka, stretching south across the Bering, with a
series of shortwave troughs rotating through the flow. A shortwave
trough that currently stretches across the Chukchi Sea to the
Western Interior will move northeast across the Central and
Eastern Interior today and north of the North Slope by this
evening. A second shortwave over the western Bering Sea this
morning will move eastward today, approaching St Lawrence Island
by this afternoon and moving onshore the West Coast by this
evening. The shortwave will continue northeast across the Interior
Friday before lifting off the Arctic Coast early Saturday morning,
as a ridge moves quickly eastward behind it. The next low moves
east across the Bering Sunday.
Surface...A weather front across the Western Interior early this
morning will move east across the Central and Eastern Interior
today.
A 1009 mb low near Wrangel Island with associated warm front
stretching southeast from it along the Arctic Coast and a cold
front stretching south across the Chukchi Sea will move north
today to be a 1006 mb low 100 nm north of Wrangel Island this
afternoon. The warm front will move north of the North Slope and
weaken, while the cold front will push quickly across the NW
Chukchi Sea Coast and the North Slope this afternoon. By Friday
morning, the low will strengthen to 1003 mb as it moves northeast
to be 450 nm NW of Utqiagvik.
A 1004 mb low off the eastern Kamchatka Peninsula will move
northeast today to be a 1005 mb low 75 nm west of St Lawrence
Island this afternoon, continuing northeast to be a 1008 mb low
50 nm west of Point Hope Friday afternoon. This low will drag a
front across the West Coast and Western Interior this evening into
Friday.
A 988 mb low will move into the western Bering Sea Friday afternoon
and deepen to 986 mb as it moves northeast to be just southwest
of St Lawrence Island Saturday afternoon. The low will continue a
northeast track to be north of the Bering Strait by Sunday morning.
As the low moves northeast, it will drag a series of fronts across
the West Coast with it.
Models...
00Z model suite initialized fair against the 00Z RAOBS and the 00Z
surface obs. At the surface, models continue to underestimate the
strength of the high pressure over the Canadian Archipelago by 2
to 4 mb. Models are in fair agreement with the overall major
features through early Saturday before model spread starts to
become apparent. Increased wind speeds for the latter half of the
forecast period, with the tightening pressure gradient due to the
low moving across the Bering; leaned towards a blend of the 00Z
NAM and 00Z GFS. Maintained much of the inherited forecast for
pops, blending in the SREF for the later portion of the forecast.
North Slope and Brooks Range: A front moving across the region
will bring snow to the Brooks Range and the North Slope today.
The highest snowfall amounts are expected on the southern slopes
of the Brooks Range, where another inch of snow is possible, while
elsewhere, snowfall amounts will generally be half an inch or
less. Gusty winds continue in the passes of the eastern Brooks
Range, so maintained the Winter Weather Advisory for 206 for
blowing snow through noon. Winds are expected to diminish later
this morning. Winds pick up in the passes of the eastern Brooks
Range once again on Saturday, with gusts to 40 mph possible.
Another weather system moving across the region will bring another
round of snow Friday and Saturday, with the heaviest snow once
again occurring on the southern facing slopes of the Brooks Range.
West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front is moving north
and east across the Western Interior this morning, spreading snow
eastward, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow expected. Snow
associated with this system will taper off later this morning. The
next system starts to bring snow to St Lawrence Island, the Bering
Strait, and the Y-K Delta late this afternoon and evening,
dropping 1 to 3 inches of snow through Friday. In the favored
upslope areas of the Seward Peninsula, higher amounts are
possible, with a potential of up to 5 inches for Nome. A stronger
weather system will move into the western Bering Sea Friday,
approach St Lawrence Island Saturday afternoon, and move north of
the Bering Strait Saturday night. This system has the potential to
bring strong winds along with heavy snowfall, especially in the
favored upslope areas. Rain or freezing rain may mix with the snow
at times. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for zones 211 and
212, for Friday afternoon through Saturday night, for primarily
heavy snow.
Central and Eastern Interior: A front will push across the region
today from the west, bringing snow with it. Snowfall amounts will
be on the light side, with the highest amounts of up to 2 inches,
occurring west of Fairbanks. Snowfall will taper off this evening.
A low moving east in the Gulf of Alaska, will push moisture up
over the Alaska Range and across the southeast Interior, bringing
a better chance of snow Friday to the Middle Tanana Valley and the
southeast Interior. Snowfall amounts will be in the 1 to 3 inch
range. The next system to impact the region moves in from the west
on Saturday, bringing widespread snowfall to the Interior
Saturday and Sunday, with the heaviest snowfall occurring west of
Fairbanks along a line from Bettles to Minto and west. There still
remains a fair amount of spread in models for snowfall amounts.
Temperatures are expected to warm through the weekend.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...This weekend a strong
area of low pressure that will affect the west coast will bring
potential for elevated water levels and overflow along the coast.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&
APR 20
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 2, 3:18 AM AKST, 4 hours 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
418 AM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2020
AKZ207>215-030200-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Lower Yukon Valley-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Noatak,
Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Kotzebue, Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland,
Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs,
Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin,
Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik,
Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede,
Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station,
St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, Pitkas Point,
Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, and Flat
418 AM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2020
...Active Weather Expected for the West Coast This Weekend...
A strong area of low pressure moving through the Bering Sea will
bring an active period of weather to the west coast of Alaska this
weekend. While there is still some uncertainty with the exact
details of this system, strong winds and localized heavy
precipitation are expected. Precipitation looks to begin late
Friday evening. Snow may mix with rain or freezing rain at times,
especially through Saturday night.
This system also has the potential to cause elevated water levels
along the coast over the weekend. As water levels rise there is
the potential to push water on top of the ice through open leads
and along the coast where shorefast ice is breaking up.
Please stay tuned to weather.gov/fairbanks as the details of this
system come into better focus.